Recent advances in large reasoning models (LRMs) have shown that reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) can substantially improve reasoning in mathematics and code, where outcomes can be checked automatically. Extending this progress to open-ended and agentic tasks remains difficult because reliable rewards are harder to obtain and direct human supervision cannot keep pace with the scale and complexity of model-generated experience. This paper studies how LRMs can continue to improve as human supervision gradually recedes from the learning loop. We examine two connected dimensions of this problem. The reward axis traces the development from per-instance human judgments to reusable verifiers and rewards that operate even without human feedback. The experience axis examines how learning can progress from human-curated tasks and environments toward self-generated curricula, constructed environments, and autonomous co-evolution. We connect these dimensions through a five-level ladder from L0 to L4 that identifies which parts of the learning process remain under continued human control. Our analysis further highlights the risks introduced by increasingly autonomous rewards and experience generation, including reward hacking, feedback drift, curriculum collapse, and environment errors. Consequently, we also provide the evaluation around three complementary objects: policy capability, feedback fidelity, and experience quality. This analysis provides a structured account of current approaches to scaling LRMs beyond human supervision and the open problems involved in developing self-sustaining learning systems toward superintelligence. Furthermore, we maintain a continuously updated \href{https://github.com/visitworld123/Awesome-Scaling-LRM-Beyond-Human-Supervision}{GitHub repository} to track the latest advances.
Test-time compute can substantially improve Large Language Model (LLM) reasoning performance, yet how and when additional compute helps remains poorly understood. We study Divergent-Convergent Reasoning (DCR), a simple two-phase primitive consisting of an exploration phase that generates multiple candidate solutions followed by a convergent reconciliation phase. We present three core results. First, we show that even a single reconciliation step can reliably amplify correct minority reports: across datasets, DCR often recovers the correct answer when correct exploration outputs are in the minority, a regime where majority voting fails. Second, we introduce recursive DCR, an autoregressive reconciliation system that iteratively analyzes disagreements and allocates additional test-time compute. Recursive DCR achieves higher accuracy than fixed-compute baselines-reaching 93.3% on AIME 2024 and 92.0% on AIME 2025-while using roughly 27% less compute on average, demonstrating that attentive resource allocation is superior to uniform scaling. Third, we analyze disagreement among exploration outputs via a simple, training-free dispersion metric. Dispersion reveals a structured relationship between disagreement and test-time gains: in regimes where DCR is effective, higher disagreement among exploration outputs is associated with larger accuracy improvements from reconciliation. Together, these results show that disagreement, often viewed as noise, can be systematically exploited to improve test-time reasoning and reveal emerging scaling laws for agentic LLM systems.
Igor Itkincs.AI cond-mat.stat-mech cs.CL cs.LG cs.MA physics.soc-ph
Simulating societies of many large language model (LLM) agents is expensive, yet the questions asked of such simulations are usually macroscopic: phase behaviour, stylised facts, and scaling with the number of agents $N$, not the cognition of any single agent. We turn a statistical-physics observation into a method: replace each LLM agent by a low-parameter model fitted from a few hundred to a few thousand cheap queries, then run the society at any $N$ on a laptop. Whether this works is decided before the simulation runs, chiefly by what each agent perceives. We introduce an [interaction order x memory] taxonomy that maps perception and memory to an effective theory and a predicted $N$-trend of the surrogate error. We validate it on a faithful reimplementation of the LLM macroeconomy EconAgent and seven further named LLM simulations, with agent decisions cloned from genuine LLM elicitations (primarily DeepSeek) for a few dollars; the predicted error trends hold cell by cell, and the two refuted predictions, both on a strongly saturating response and traced to its curvature, are themselves matched quantitatively by the theory with no free parameters.
The Internet taught us that the value of a network depends on \emph{how} its nodes connect: broadcast stars scale as $V\!\propto\!N$ (Sarnoff), fully-connected meshes as $N^2$ (Metcalfe), and group-forming networks as $2^{N}$ (Reed). We ask the analogous question for networks of AI agents. We model the net value of connection as a function of coordination-group size, derive from it the properties an optimal collaboration protocol must have, and introduce ANet Patu-1 -- a self-organizing consensus protocol in which the network continuously re-forms its own coalitions, adaptively riding the upper envelope of all three regimes at $O(1)$ parallel consensus rounds. To measure value without opinion-grading, we score an emergent protocol by formally specifying it and deriving its complexity, the way distributed algorithms are analyzed. Two results follow. (i)~Emergence -- a crowd of the \emph{cheapest} model, when heterogeneous, starts weak but its collective value compounds with $N$ and \emph{overtakes} a crowd of a far \emph{stronger} model that is homogeneous: a crossover that marks a scaling law for collaboration rather than for scale. (ii)~Reflexivity -- a heterogeneous network, given only its own problem and no design hints, converges on ANet Patu-1 itself, reconstructing the high-dimensional law that governs its own connective value.
Pretraining scaling laws reveal that model capability improves predictably with data and compute. But learning from real world environments after deployment remains far less understood. Analyzing roughly 38,000 hours of agent interaction with the environment across 134 real world tasks, we find, to the best of our knowledge, the first evidence that overall performance during environment learning follows a log-sigmoid scaling law with remarkably high precision, reaching R^2 = 0.998. Across model generations, we also find that agent learning speed roughly doubles every three months. This discovery stems from EdgeBench, a suite of 134 real world tasks with ultra-long horizons, spanning scientific discovery, software engineering, combinatorial optimization, professional knowledge work, formal mathematics, and interactive games. Each task sustains at least 12 hours of continuous agent operation under rich, multilevel feedback, and is built through substantial expert effort. We publicly release 51 tasks and our full evaluation framework to accelerate the study of how agents learn from real world experience.
Long-chain agent execution fails exponentially in environments designed for human tolerance: with per-step determinism $δ< 1$, $k$-step chain success degrades as $δ^k$. The AGI-to-ASI scaling debate (Genewein et al., 2026) has so far framed progress as a race between compute growth and a list of frictions (data wall, abstraction barrier, embodied bottleneck, multi-agent trust); we argue that environment determinism is a complementary binding axis cutting across all four, for the broad class of agentic AI tasks whose outcomes are verifiable economically, physically, or through multi-party settlement. Three formal results pin down the regime: a Determinism-Efficiency Bound on chain-task success, a Verifier-Goodharting Floor on flywheel ceilings under imperfect rewards, and a convergence condition for environment-side skill evolution. We operationalise the framework as a Supply Certainty Index (SCI) over five measurable properties, a five-level Determinism Maturity Model (DMM) as adoption ladder, and a falsifiable open-question programme (OQ1-OQ5) with explicit null results that would force retraction. The position is platform-agnostic. We engage three competing positions: sim-to-real sufficiency, alignment sufficiency, and AI-as-normal-technology.
We use Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), a recently devised sample and memory efficient reinforcement learning method, to finetune pretrained LLMs in the range of 1.5B to 14B parameters equipped with the ability to get current information through the use of a Wikipedia revisions tool, or news summaries, to forecast real events beyond the knowledge cutoff of the LLM, as well as problems made to simulate different aspects of the dynamics of that training. We use the results of these experiments to comment on the scaling capability of LLMs for forecasting, as well as classify how judgmental forecasting fits into the verifiable/unverifiable domain taxonomy, considering the impact of the inherent aleatoric uncertainty when forecasting future events (e.g. the roll of a die). As a result of the GRPO training, we manage to bring a 1.5B parameter transformer (Qwen 2.5 1.5B) to forecasting performance superior to Claude Sonnet 3.5 over the same dataset as measured by cross entropy from the market agreed probabilities. We also discuss various dead ends on the path to this result.