Reliable web-agent monitoring is difficult when model-internal uncertainty signals such as token logits are unavailable. In this work, we study prefix-level risk prediction for web agents using observable trajectory signals: given an evolving prefix, estimate whether the current execution remains on track or is tending toward failure. We derive two observable trajectory representations: Macro features summarize cross-step agent--environment behavior and feedback, while Micro features measure the consistency of intention, action, and anticipated state change through repeated black-box queries. Instead of inheriting the final result label, we label the first critical error that remains uncorrected in the observed continuation and is associated with final failure as a key-step boundary, preserving valid early prefixes of failed trajectories as on track. Across WebArena-Lite and Online Mind2Web web agent benchmarks with five open- and closed-source backbones, observable trajectory signals are competitive with internal-signal baselines. The resulting predictors also support early intervention under fixed false-cut budgets and transfer across held-out website categories. These findings show that observable trajectory signals support valuable risk prediction abilities.
Deep-research agents answer complex questions by interacting with search and browsing tools, yet they often search along a single evolving trajectory. Our trajectory-level analysis reveals a common failure mode in which the agent may encounter an early search state with several plausible directions, but follow one direction before collecting enough comparative evidence. Once this happens, subsequent tool calls tend to reinforce the same path, increasing the chance of failure when the initial direction is misleading. We further find that successful trajectories reduce this risk through two behaviors: grounding vague exploration in concrete candidates and shifting directions when the current path is weak or incomplete. Based on these findings, we propose HypoSearch, which generates lightweight hypotheses as soft search hints, explores them through bounded independent branches, and compares branch-level evidence before commitment. Across four deep-research benchmarks and three backbone models, HypoSearch consistently outperforms single-trajectory search and standard parallel baselines, improving Qwen3.5-122B from 46.7 to 60.0 on BC-small while using fewer tool calls than five independent trajectories. A pilot supervised fine-tuning study further shows that these behavioral signals can curate compact training trajectories and reduce degradation from unfiltered data.
Understanding agent behavior requires methods that scale to thousands of trajectories and surface new patterns in long, often unfamiliar tasks where pre-built classifiers fall short. We propose to bring grounded theory into agent trajectory analysis: a six-decade-old qualitative method from the social sciences, with a principled saturation criterion and an auditable trail from data to theory. We propose AutoTraceGT (Automated Trace analysis through Grounded Theory), the first multi-agent pipeline that automates grounded theory on agent trajectories. It iteratively performs open, axial, and theoretical coding until saturation, producing a behavioral taxonomy tailored to each task. Across six trajectory corpora, AutoTraceGT produces codebooks that recover 73-91 percent of the failure modes in human-annotated taxonomies and surface additional patterns that those taxonomies miss. The emergent theoretical narrative aligns with prior expert accounts. Used as a deductive feature space, the codebook outperforms zero-shot and few-shot LLM baselines on downstream failure prediction. These results suggest Grounded Theory offers a scalable analytic tool for ML researchers and agent developers studying what agents actually do.
Outcome-only evaluation is the production default for LLM agents: show a judge the request and the final reply and ask whether it was handled well. The metric is structurally blind to an agent that reaches the right answer the wrong way. We measure that blind spot where ground truth is known by construction: a deterministic tool-using support-desk environment, a scripted oracle policy that always solves it, and a fault injector that breaks exactly one thing at a known step, stratifying faults by whether the customer-visible outcome survived (silent) or not (loud). Five judges (programmatic rules, outcome-only, step-rubric at two model sizes, and a self-consistency ensemble) are scored on detection, step localisation, fault typing, calibration, and cost over 400 trajectories. The outcome-only judge catches 84% of loud faults but 45% of silent ones while flagging 33% of correct trajectories; a step-rubric judge reaches 77% silent recall with zero false alarms at 3x the cost. No judge reads the final reply: an invented promise appended to an otherwise perfect trajectory evades the rules entirely and the step judge 82% of the time, and self-consistency triples cost while improving nothing. We argue that judge evaluations must stratify recall by outcome survival, and release the environment, the injector, all raw verdicts, and an analysis pipeline that rebuilds every number offline.
LLM-based agents are rapidly moving from research prototypes into the core business processes of organizations, but these agents pose deployment risks to security, compliance, and functionality. In this article, we argue that risk-free deployment must be grounded in the agent's trajectory: the recorded sequence of reasoning steps, tool invocations, and environmental observations. Trajectories are available for any agent, and many failures are visible only in the trajectory. To make agents deployable and sustainable, we advocate agent testing and debugging as a systematic research direction for detecting and mitigating these risks. This article begins with the challenges of testing agents, including the oracle problem, non-determinism, trajectory validation, and the absence of adequacy metrics. We then turn to debugging agents, from automated failure attribution to repair and self-evolution. We distill these directions into a practical deployment-readiness checklist covering the full deployment lifecycle. Finally, we identify open problems, i.e., formal adequacy metrics, root-cause attribution over long-horizon trajectories, and the reliability of self-evolving agents, that the community must address to enable trustworthy agent deployment.
Roles provide an interpretable interface for organizing language-model agents, yet most multi-agent systems treat them as hand-written prompt labels disconnected from learned behavior and parameter updates. We argue that a useful role should instead be an executable control variable: it should summarize behavior predictive of future utility, guide subsequent interaction, and identify the trainable capacity responsible for that behavior. We introduce ExRole, a trajectory-to-role framework that learns future-aware role prototypes from prefix-local team traces, resolves them into readable instructions and token-aligned role markers, and optionally routes shared LoRA rank slots with turn-aligned credit. Across MuSiQue and 2WikiMultiHopQA, ExRole improves over single-agent search by 15.0/14.4 and 13.5/16.1 EM/F1 points, respectively. Against the strongest non-ExRole controls, the corresponding gains remain 11.5/11.6 and 7.7/9.7 points. Across both benchmarks, the controlled results consistently favor trajectory-induced role conditioning over role-free, manual, random, and shuffled alternatives. Role-Agent-Turn interventions further show that the induced roles capture transferable behavioral specialization beyond fixed agent identities or turn positions.
Research agents increasingly conduct multi-round machine-learning experiments in industrial recommendation settings and retain the resulting trajectories to guide later decisions. Yet a completed trajectory is not automatically evidence: generated artifacts may be unsupported or incomplete, executed rounds may be invalid or confounded, and later modifications may obscure earlier findings. We study \textbf{trajectory-to-evidence conversion}, asking what a completed research process has actually established. We introduce an evidence-grounded framework that couples bounded verification of consequential artifacts with post-execution claim qualification. A context-isolated generate--verify--repair process checks artifacts for evidence violations and missing downstream requirements before release. After execution, validity and attribution checks consolidate evidence across rounds, qualify intervention-level claims as actionable repairs, diagnostic guards, or withheld findings, and preserve admitted claims as auditable records with explicit provenance and applicability boundaries. A hybrid LLM-assisted controller subsequently applies, defers, or rejects records based on available target evidence. Record audits characterize which claims survive qualification, while downstream diagnostics identify affirmative applicability judgment as a bottleneck for the tested controller. Across paper-to-target adaptations, later rounds often improve on the first, while final rounds frequently underperform an earlier best, exposing non-monotonic trajectory evolution. Candidates produced through the complete workflow also yielded positive online lifts relative to deployed baselines.
LLM-powered agents increasingly tackle complex tasks by invoking tools, querying databases, executing code, and manipulating intermediate artifacts. These agents follow trajectories that are typically stored as chronological logs, obscuring the underlying dataflow -- the dependencies between their actions and the artifacts they create and manipulate. This limits developers' ability to understand the agents' trails, compare executions, debug failures, and re-use the computations. We present AgentTrails, a prototype system for agent provenance and sensemaking. AgentTrails converts raw trajectories into structured provenance graphs, where tool calls are modeled as computational actions and inputs and outputs as data artifacts. The system supports the comparison of executions by placing multiple provenance graphs on a shared canvas and constructing a joined quotient graph that aligns recurring tools, artifacts, and dependency structures across trajectories. On top of this representation, AgentTrails supports pattern extraction, downstream analysis, and skill abstraction. We demonstrate AgentTrails on real-world agent trajectories, showing that it reveals hidden dependencies, aligns divergent executions, and surfaces recurring tool-use patterns beyond chronological logs.
Babak Barazandeh, Subhabrata Majumdar, George Michailidiscs.AI cs.CL cs.LG
Large language model agents solve tasks by generating trajectories that interleave planning, tool calls, and intermediate results. Current evaluation metrics reduce such a trajectory to a binary success flag, compare it against a reference by exact matching, or delegate judgment to another language model. A success flag cannot distinguish a sound solution from one that succeeds by luck, and says nothing about why a failed run went wrong. Exact matching penalizes plans that are valid but reordered or decomposed differently from the reference. We reframe trajectory evaluation as a distance between the agent's execution graph and a set of valid solution graphs, and instantiate it via an unbalanced fused Gromov-Wasserstein transport problem over attributed dependency graphs. The resulting score, termed OTAP (Optimal Transport for Agentic Planning), is a pseudo-metric that is provably invariant to dependency-preserving reorderings and has bounded sensitivity to redundant steps. Its unbalanced marginals handle missing or hallucinated steps without forcing a match, and its soft coupling accommodates variation in plan granularity. On controlled perturbations and three public benchmarks, OTAP separates valid from invalid trajectories in a regime where semantics-only metrics score below chance. Its advantage tracks the fidelity of the dependency graph: largest where edges follow from operator semantics, smallest where they are inferred from free text. Where a formal verifier exists, strict surface metrics predict validity better than OTAP does, which places OTAP in open-ended domains where no verifier is available.
Memory is becoming a core component of long-horizon AI agents, allowing agents to reuse past experience when operating web browsers, software tools, and other interactive environments. Existing work mostly treats memory as a supply problem, asking what experience to write, how to store it, and which entry to retrieve for the next task. Yet we still lack a clear account of how models consume retrieved memory across a multi-step action trajectory. This consumption process matters because it determines not only what memories should be retrieved, but also what models and control policies are needed to use them safely. To diagnose this process, we propose Entry--Propagation--Recovery (E-P-R), a trajectory-level framework that asks where memory first changes an action, whether that change carries forward, and whether the agent can recover after leaving a correct path. We instantiate E-P-R on WebArena and on MemTrapBench, a controlled benchmark we build to isolate these phases. We find that the main failure often begins at entry: agents adopt conflicting memory at the first exposed decision point even when it is task-wrong. Repeated exposure then amplifies this early error, while recovery after divergence is weak. Together, these effects create a compliance trap: across models, conflicting memory induces similar compliance rates, but once agents comply, their success rates collapse to a low floor. Stronger agents therefore suffer larger absolute damage because each compliance event erases more baseline capability. These results suggest that memory-augmented agents should be evaluated not only by retrieval quality or final success rate, but by how they consume memory throughout the trajectory.
Gaurav Gupta, Vatshank Chaturvedi, Jun Huan +1cs.AI cs.LG
AI agent performance is not just a modeling problem, it is fundamentally a systems problem. The advanced capabilities of models are realized through agent harnesses. Therefore, a gap between model assumptions and harness behavior can easily prevent the model's full capabilities from translating into agent performance. We formalize this as the `intent-execution' gap: the mismatch between what the model intends and what the harness executes, and vice versa. We argue that minimizing this intent-execution gap is as important as other aspects of harness design such as tools and execution loops. To illustrate the impact of this harness-model alignment, we develop a simple and customizable harness called `Simple Strands Agent' (SSA). SSA aims to find the bulk of common patterns which generalize across different model families (such as Claude, Gemini, GPT, Grok, Qwen), as well as a small number of model-specific preferences. We make two contributions: (i) we $\textbf{reproduce or improve on the pass@1}$ performance reported by diverse model-provider families on popular agentic benchmarks (SWE-Pro, SWE-Verified and Terminal-Bench-2), and (ii) building on an $\textbf{analysis of 138k trajectories generated by SSA}$, we look beyond the $\texttt{pass@1}$ numbers which tend to be relatively even across frontier models. By representing agent trajectories in code state-spaces, we observe model-level differences in problem-solving behavior. Finer-grained metrics such as edit frequency, testing activity, and phase-transitions reveal how individual models allocate effort across different stages of autonomous problem solving.
Agent skills encode reusable procedural knowledge for large language model (LLM) agents, and existing benchmarks show that such skills can improve task-level performance. However, a task outcome does not reveal which parts of a reusable skill were exercised, nor whether the agent followed the relevant skill instructions when those parts were exercised. This gap makes it unclear whether a skill has been adequately tested, or whether observed task failures provide actionable evidence for improving agent skill effectiveness. To fill this gap, we introduce skill coverage, a trajectory-based test-adequacy metric for reusable agent skills. Our framework extracts skill behavior constraints from each skill, translating natural-language skill instructions into semi-structured constraints that specify the expected agent behavior under particular conditions. It then determines whether each constraint is covered by an agent trajectory and, for covered constraints, assigns a Pass or Fail verdict according to the agent behavior. We apply this framework to SkillsBench. The results show that agent trajectories on the benchmark leaderboard cover only 38.66 to 45.51% of the extracted skill behavior constraints on average. We then use Fail verdicts to strengthen the corresponding skill content only by emphasizing the original instructions that the agent failed to follow, and run the same tasks with the strengthened skills. This emphasis yields an average 16.0% recovery rate of the failed tasks across the five agent-model rows. These results show that skill coverage is both a test-adequacy metric and a fine-grained signal for observing skill-use behavior. In failed tasks, failed constraint labels provide actionable evidence for improving agent skill effectiveness. A project website accompanies the paper.