Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong capabilities in automated travel itinerary generation. However, real- world travel planning is inherently uncertain: transportation delays, crowd fluctuations, and unexpected stochastic delays frequently inval- idate otherwise feasible schedules. Existing benchmarks like TravelPlanner and TripCraft assume deterministic environments, evaluating only static constraint satisfaction and ignoring whether generated plans remain robust when such uncertainties arise. To address this limitation, we introduce UTP-Bench1 , a large-scale benchmark for uncertainty-aware travel planning. The dataset integrates real-world travel data spanning 504 cities of India, including attractions, restau- rants, accommodations, and multi-modal trans- portation networks. To model realistic disrup- tions, UTP-Bench incorporates empirical delay distributions and crowd-density patterns col- lected from major cities, enabling evaluation of travel plans under stochastic conditions. We further propose three evaluation metrics, namely Buffer Adequacy Score (BAS), Crowd- Aware Timing Score (CATS), and Transport Delay Absorption Score (TDAS), which quan- tify the ability of generated itineraries to main- tain robustness against transit delays and crowd variability. Experiments with state-of-the-art LLMs like GPT-5, Qwen3, Mistral and Phi-4 re- veal substantial gaps between model-generated and human-authored plans, particularly in tem- poral buffering, delay-aware transportation scheduling, and crowd-sensitive planning.
A company with a fixed artificial intelligence (AI) budget must decide which large language model (LLM) handles each recurring workload. What it lacks is the quality table, how well each model performs on each workload. Given that table, the decision is a multiple-choice knapsack problem and is routine to solve, so estimating it is the difficulty, and that estimation fails in two ways. Models are rarely compared on the same work, and the recorded score is usually a proxy rather than the outcome the company values. Causal and off-policy methods repair the first but condition on the second, while evaluator-validation methods estimate the second but stop short of the decision. Worse, buying more re-evaluation cannot settle the second: randomization governs which requests are scored, not how a score is produced, so the table stays uncertain however much evaluation is purchased. Yet the deployment decision may still be determined even when the table is not. We therefore ask whether one assignment stays optimal across every quality table consistent with the evidence. For the fixed-budget problem, this admits an exact two-solve certificate: solve once at the estimated table and once at a least-favourable table. Agreement certifies the assignment; disagreement identifies the model-workload pairs where further evidence can matter. We propose CASE (causal active sequential experimentation), which targets evaluation to those pairs and repeats the test as evidence accumulates. On a production log, the measurement failure is the larger of the two: correcting assignment exactly still leaves most of the loss, and randomized re-evaluation does not remove it. In our experiments, the available evidence often does not determine the assignment. On paid software tasks, better information about model quality yields more savings than further optimization of the assignment on the same estimates.
Charles Courchaine, Ricky J. Sethi, Hefei Qiucs.AI cs.MA
Large Language Models (LLMs) are notorious for struggling with assessing their own uncertainty, detecting knowledge conflicts, or recognizing when problems exceed their expertise; such limitations inevitably undermine reliability and trust in LLMs. In this paper, we present the first implementation of a metacognitive framework for ensembles of LLMs that addresses these challenges through explicit monitoring and control mechanisms. Our system computes a Metacognitive State Vector (MSV) quantifying self-awareness for monitoring across five dimensions derived from cognitive psychology: Emotional Response, Correctness Evaluation, Experiential Match, Conflicting Information, and Problem Importance. MSV values also provide self-regulation for control, automatically switching between System 1 (fast, single- or multi-node) and System 2 (deliberative, multi-node) processing based on query complexity. For System 2 execution, graph-theoretic algorithms control the assignment of specialized roles (Domain Expert, Critic, Evaluator, Synthesizer, and Generalist) to ensemble nodes according to their MSV-quantified metacognitive states. Our implementation allows users to explore how different query types trigger distinct processing modes. The Proof-of-Concept (PoC) demo showcases the framework with illustrative examples showing appropriate System 1/System 2 routing and helps visualize the metacognitive process via real-time radar charts and decision indicators. This PoC implementation demonstrates the feasibility of creating a framework for metacognitive self-awareness and self-regulation in LLM systems.
AI agents in supply chains face a fundamental epistemic gap: large language models (LLMs) interpret policies but lack physical grounding, while reinforcement learning (RL) optimizes flows but is semantically blind to unstructured constraints. We introduce REFLECTICHAIN, bridging this gap through a Generative Supply Chain World Model (SC-WM) - encoding heterogeneous supply networks into a 6-dim graph-latent space with physical conservation - and Double-Loop Learning that separates epistemic uncertainty (KL-trust-region-bounded policy adaptation) from aleatoric uncertainty (stochastic latent rollouts). On Semi-Sim, a 10-node semiconductor benchmark with SIR risk propagation, 6 perturbation types, and 10 policy constraint templates, REFLECTICHAIN improves Rationale Consistency Score by 33.0% (p < 0.0001, d = 2.78), maintains 82.3% operability under adversarial shocks, and exhibits anti-fragile behavior (+40.2% gain under moderate pressure). We identify three operational epistemic mechanisms - uncertainty separation, knowledge-boundary detection, and empirical Bayesian policy updating - and discuss five limitation categories.
Existing LLM routing methods typically treat a model's single response to a query as its capability label for training routers. However, because LLM generation is inherently stochastic, such single-shot supervision provides only a noisy observation of a query-model pair's behavior rather than a reliable capability estimate. We show that this assumption introduces systematic noise into routing supervision, making learned routing policies less reliable. To address this issue, we propose DARS (Distribution-Aware Routing Supervision), a framework that constructs routing supervision from a distributional view of model behavior. Instead of relying on a single generated response, DARS considers uncertainty from both the input side and the output side, capturing how semantically equivalent query formulations and stochastic generations affect model performance. Based on these distribution-aware observations, DARS builds more reliable supervision signals for routing. Experiments across diverse tasks show that single-shot labels can be misleading for model selection, while distribution-aware supervision provides more stable labels and improves learned routing behavior. Our results suggest that reliable LLM routing should move beyond single-response observations and be grounded in query-level model capability distributions.
Large Language Model (LLM) agents often operate under underspecified user instructions, where latent uncertainty over user intent leads to erroneous tool actions. To address this challenge, we propose a goal-oriented clarification framework that aligns clarification behavior with ambiguity resolution. Central to our approach is the Information Gain Reward, a metric that quantifies the utility of clarification questions by measuring the Bayesian belief update towards the ground-truth goal induced by the clarification exchange. We train the clarifier (LLM) using this reward to optimize for high information gain, ensuring that clarifications effectively reduce uncertainty and improve task completion within the agent-tool-user environment. We validate our framework within a clarification-enhanced $τ$-Bench environment, conducting cross-agent evaluations across five heterogeneous backbones. Empirical results demonstrate that our method consistently improves the success rate by 3.7\% over the no-clarification baseline, while adding only 0.3 total interaction steps on average.
Anna Mazhar, Huzaifa Suri, Sainyam Galhotracs.AI cs.LG
Reasoning over heterogeneous artifacts (PDFs, spreadsheets, slide decks, etc.) increasingly occurs within structured agent workflows that iteratively extract, transform, and reference external information. In these workflows, uncertainty is not merely an input-quality issue: it can redirect decomposition and routing decisions, reshape intermediate state, and produce qualitatively different execution trajectories. We study this phenomenon by treating uncertainty as a controlled variable: we inject structured perturbations into artifact-derived representations, execute fixed workflows under comprehensive logging, and quantify contamination via trace divergence in plans, tool invocations, and intermediate state. Across 614 paired runs on 32 GAIA tasks with three different language models, we find a decoupling: workflows may diverge substantially yet recover correct answers, or remain structurally similar while producing incorrect outputs. We characterize three manifestation types: silent semantic corruption, behavioral detours with recovery, and combined structural disruption and their control-flow signatures (rerouting, extended execution, early termination). We measure operational costs and characterize why commonly used verification guardrails fail to intercept contamination. We contribute (i) a formal taxonomy of contamination manifestations in structured workflows, (ii) a trace-based measurement framework for detecting and localizing contamination across agent interactions, and (iii) empirical evidence with implications for targeted verification, defensive design, and cost control.