SENTRY: Deterministic, Intelligent Risk Assessment for IT Change Management

Technology change management in large financial institutions depends on risk assessments that are accurate, consistent, and auditable. In practice, many institutions still rely on self-reported questionnaires. Those questionnaires are subjective, easy to game, and poor at separating routine changes from the ones that later trigger major incidents. This paper presents SENTRY, a risk assessment platform that replaces questionnaire-based scoring with a deterministic machine learning pipeline built from gradient-boosted decision trees (XGBoost) and hybrid retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). The system combines structured operational metadata, application dependency graphs, and historical incident records with a hybrid semantic and lexical search over historical change requests. The retrieval step captures the risk signal in unstructured change request text, then compresses that signal into a single scalar feature before model inference. That design keeps the model deterministic and preserves per-prediction explainability via SHAP values. Evaluated on enterprise-scale change data, SENTRY achieves a ROC AUC of 0.87 and 85% overall accuracy, and it detects high-risk changes at roughly 3.25 times the rate of the existing process. We close by examining the architectural trade-offs behind this design and what they imply for the use of machine learning in regulated change management.

Communicating Credit Risk with Large Language Models: Evaluation of Explanations from Standard and Alternative Data-Based Models

Credit decisioning is a high-stakes task in which model outputs must be accurate and explainable to support compliant decisions. Although modern credit risk models such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) improve predictive performance, their explanations are often too technical for stakeholders creating communication gaps that can shape approvals, denials, and fairness judgments. We examine whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can serve as explanation layers that translate post-hoc explanation artefacts into stakeholder-appropriate risk narratives. Using Freddie Mac single-family loan-level data, we develop three pipelines: standard tabular (XGBoost + SHAP), and two with alternative data, a pure network-based (GNN + GNNExplainer), and a bimodal one (combining tabular and network data). We generate narratives with three LLM configurations: a small fine-tuned LLM (Gemma 3 4B), a large fine-tuned LLM (DeepSeek R1 70B), and a zero-shot commercial LLM (Gemini 2.5). Explanation quality is evaluated through automated checks across all pipelines and a human study of bimodal explanations comparing credit risk professionals and non-professionals on eight decision-relevant dimensions. We have three main findings. First, the pipeline accounts for higher variance in evidence-grounding scores than the language model, meaning that the binding constraint on explanation quality is the evidence representation, not the model used. Second, the explanation narratives reliably name the influential factors but are less reliable when stating the direction of influence, which may be consequential for adverse-action communication. Finally, professionals apply stricter evidentiary standards than non-professionals. We discuss implications for the governance of risk models, including deployment considerations and the value of domain-aligned LLMs in regulated credit settings.

Accurate Ensembles, Fragile Narratives: Multi-Scale Stacking and a Fidelity Audit of LLM-Generated Explanations for Credit Risk

Credit scoring increasingly relies on models whose decision logic cannot be read off their parameters, in tension with supervisory expectations that adverse decisions be explainable. A common proposal closes that gap with a language model: compute feature attributions, hand them to an LLM, and let it write the rationale. We build such a system end to end and test whether the second half of the promise holds. The predictive component is a multi-scale stacking ensemble fusing four differently regularised gradient-boosting learners with a residual network through a neural meta-learner trained on out-of-fold predictions. On a public 32,581-application credit dataset it reaches test ROC-AUC 0.9539 (95% CI [0.9462, 0.9616]) and PR-AUC 0.9137, beating the best single model by Delta-AUC = 0.0143 (p = 0.016 under a conservative independence assumption). Our central finding is asymmetric. The ranking gain is real but operationally small: at the F1-optimal threshold the ensemble avoids only six additional missed defaults out of 1,422 against a tuned random forest, cutting cost-weighted loss by under 2%. The narrative layer fails in a way prompt engineering alone does not fix. In an audited case the model named three factors as risk-increasing that the supplied attributions scored as risk-reducing, omitted the dominant driver, and introduced a feature never given to it. We trace this to properties we measure rather than assume: SHAP and LIME agree on which features matter (overlap@10 = 0.80) but not on their order (tau = 0.43, p = 0.18), and the attribution sign for the model's most sensitive input is near a coin flip across applicants (modal-sign share 0.53). Calibration (ECS = 0.117) and perturbation stability (DPD = 0.078) both fall short of our own thresholds. Constrained prompting is necessary but not sufficient: grounding must be verified after generation, not assumed.

AIriskEval-edu Demo: Auditing of Pedagogical Risks in Educational Explanations

We present AIriskEval-edu Demo, a platform that audits the pedagogical quality of instructional explanations and provides explainable audit results. The platform evaluates an explanation against a rubric covering five dimensions of pedagogical risk: factual accuracy, depth and completeness, focus and relevance, student-level appropriateness, and ideological bias. For each dimension, it returns a binary decision and a confidence score. Detected risks also include a natural-language rationale and, except for Depth and Completeness, a localized evidence span. The platform integrates GPT-5.5 through an external API and a self-hosted Llama 3.1 8B evaluator that runs on consumer-grade GPUs. The local evaluator is fine-tuned on AIriskEval-edu, a dataset of K-12 instructional explanations with risk and explainability annotations. The platform operates in two modes: in AI mode, both evaluators assess stored explanations generated under six simulated teacher profiles, each representing a distinct pedagogical behavior and potential risk; in human mode, the local evaluator audits user-written explanations in real time. The local evaluator outperforms GPT-5.5 on most reported metrics, offering educational institutions a practical way to keep audited content within their own infrastructure.

TRUST-ESD: A Risk-Calibrated and Governance-Aware AI Framework for Enterprise Strategic Decision Support Under Uncertainty

Enterprise strategic decision support requires AI systems that are not only accurate, but also uncertainty-aware, risk-calibrated, explainable, and governance-compliant. This paper proposes TRUST-ESD, a risk-calibrated and governance-aware framework for enterprise decision support under uncertainty. TRUST-ESD evaluates feasible counterfactual strategies through predictive utility estimation, conformal uncertainty calibration, CVaR-based downside-risk scoring, risk-memory retrieval, policy-as-code governance, explainability, and human oversight. Unlike prediction-only methods that select actions by maximum expected utility, TRUST-ESD recommends strategies that balance value, reliability, risk exposure, and compliance. Experimental results show that TRUST-ESD improves risk-adjusted utility by 7.95%, reduces risk exposure by 23.22%, reduces CVaR by 23.78%, lowers calibration error by 13.89%, improves explanation fidelity by 10.90%, and increases governance compliance by 9.76% compared with strong uncertainty-aware baselines, while maintaining competitive predictive accuracy. Ablation and case-study analyses further confirm that uncertainty calibration, downside-risk scoring, risk memory, explainability, and governance validation jointly improve trustworthy enterprise decision-making.

Toward Auditable Fraud Detection: Combining Graph Features, Model Explanations, and Agentic Case Investigation

Fraud detection systems must scale with rising transaction volume while remaining explainable and reviewable. We study a layered pipeline on the PaySim dataset that combines a gradient-boosted classifier, graph-derived structural features, an autoencoder-based anomaly signal, TreeSHAP explanations, and a bounded LLM investigation agent applied to cases the classifier scores uncertainly. Before any model comparison, we identify and remove a simulator-specific balance shortcut that would otherwise inflate baseline performance. After this correction, neither the graph features nor the anomaly signal improves Average Precision on the full test set. Both, however, rank fraud better within the subset of cases receiving intermediate baseline scores. In a controlled experiment with injected multi-account fraud rings, engineered structural features recover all injected test transactions, while the tabular baseline misses roughly a quarter of them. The investigation agent underperforms direct thresholding of the classifier it relies on, reaching 65.0% accuracy against 71.7% on a balanced 60-case sample, despite having access to model explanations, graph context, and retrieved reference cases. Of the eight decisions the agent changed, six replaced correct classifier outputs with errors, and it produced a coherent written rationale in each case. An exploratory disagreement-based escalation rule flagged two of these agent errors for human review without flagging any correct decision. We conclude that each component of a layered fraud system contributes only under specific conditions, and that a plausible rationale from an investigation agent is not evidence of a better decision.

Evaluating RE Practices for Explainability: Synthesizing Insights from Daimler Truck into an Explainable RE Framework Proposal

Explainability has emerged as a critical requirement for AI-based systems, particularly in safety-critical and regulated domains. Although prior research has proposed frameworks, patterns, and user-centered approaches to support explainability, there is limited empirical understanding of how existing Requirements Engineering (RE) practices support explainability requirements across the RE lifecycle, especially in an industrial context. This paper reports early findings from an ongoing industry-based study investigating how explainability requirements are elicited, specified, and validated using established RE techniques. We conducted a multi-phase qualitative study with eight practitioners at Daimler Truck, employing think-aloud protocols and moderated group discussions across requirements elicitation, specification, and validation steps. Our preliminary analysis reveals recurring challenges across all steps, including conceptual ambiguity during elicitation, limited testability and expressiveness during specification, and fragmented validation due to vague criteria and regulatory uncertainty. These findings indicate that current RE practices provide limited support to systematically address explainability requirements. The paper contributes empirical insights into step-specific and cross-cutting challenges and outlines a research vision toward developing an empirically grounded RE framework for explainable AI-based systems.

Interactive Analysis of Global Explanations using Aggregated Class Activation Maps for Network Data

Recent machine learning (ML) advances have demonstrated that deep learning (DL) achieves impressive results in different application domains, including the classification of computer network traffic to corresponding applications. However, the data frequently contains diverging patterns within a single predicted class. This presents a significant challenge to the ability to provide a clear and comprehensive explanation and emphasizes the necessity for tools capable of detecting and analyzing these patterns. Furthermore, the capacity to extract descriptive rules for classes is a crucial requirement in network traffic analysis and intrusion detection, particularly when leveraging advanced tools like next-generation firewalls. We provide a visual-interactive system that explains predictions of classes for network traffic. Global explanations derived from multiple samples of a given class contribute to understanding model predictions. Visualization of global explanations enables recognition of different patterns that offer experts a more comprehensive overview of its characteristics. We introduce a prototype that facilitates visual exploration and refinement of global explanations, enabling network experts to detect and refine new patterns for specific applications. These explanations support the identification of misleading features and the formulation of new rules for the management of networks. Our approach also aims at enabling ML experts to acquire new insights, including the possibility of separating or merging classes and the development of more accurate and reliable DL models. Our proposed prototype was evaluated by experts in machine learning and network analysis.

AIriskEval-edu: New Dataset for Risk Assessment in AI-mediated K-12 Educational Explanations

This work introduces AIriskEval-edu-db2, a new dataset designed to train and evaluate auditors based on LLMs for an explainable pedagogical risk assessment in instructional content for grades K-12. The dataset comprises 1,639 explanations from 170 curated ScienceQA questions, covering science, language arts, and social sciences. For each question, the dataset includes an explanation written by a human teacher alongside 11 explanations generated by LLM-simulated teacher profiles associated with distinct pedagogical risks. We propose a comprehensive risk rubric aligned with established educational standards that covers five complementary dimensions: factual precision, depth and completeness, focus and relevance, student-level appropriateness, and ideological bias. A key contribution is the addition of 785 explanations with structured explainability annotations, including risk localization and risk description. The annotations are produced through a semi-automatic process with expert teacher validation. Finally, we present validation experiments comparing state-of-the-art proprietary models with a lightweight local Llama 3.1 8B model in both the pedagogical risk detection and the explainability assessment. These experiments evaluate whether supervised fine-tuning on AIriskEval-edu-db2 enables a locally deployable model to approach or outperform stronger frontier models while preserving privacy in educational auditing and assessment tasks.

BetXplain: An Explanation-Annotated Dataset for Detecting Manipulative Betting Advertisements on Social Media

The promotion of betting applications on social media platforms has increased significantly in recent years. Many of these advertisements use persuasive techniques that may mislead users, encourage risky behavior, and potentially influence users' mental well-being. However, research on the automated detection of manipulative and deceptive betting advertisements remains limited due to the lack of publicly available annotated datasets. In this work, we introduce a new dataset of betting-related advertisements collected from two widely used social media platforms, Instagram and Reddit. The advertisements were manually annotated for manipulative and deceptive advertising practices. In addition to classification labels, the dataset includes human-provided explanations that describe the reasoning behind each annotation, enabling research into explainable approaches to detecting manipulative advertising. Furthermore, we analyze the strategies commonly used in betting advertisements and examine how these persuasive tactics may impact users' mental health. The proposed framework can also enable practical applications such as browser plugins that warn users about manipulative betting advertisements and automated web crawlers that help regulatory authorities monitor and detect such promotions online.

Position: Explainability Research Must Prioritize Foundations over Ad-hoc Methods

Despite the proliferation of Explainable AI (XAI) techniques -- from feature attributions to sparse autoencoders -- explanations rarely influence real-world workflows. In practice, they are often generated and discarded without guiding meaningful action. This gap reflects foundational shortcomings: research has not yet established methodologies for integrating explanations into end-to-end, human-in-the-loop systems. This position paper argues that the machine learning community must pivot from ad-hoc XAI methods toward addressing foundational & structural challenges, including unclear problem formulations, underspecified evaluation objectives, and the absence of pipelines for explanation-driven feedback. We support this claim through an analysis of recent ICML, NeurIPS, and ICLR papers and a survey of XAI practitioners, revealing recurring issues that limit cumulative progress. We conclude by outlining a practical checklist designed to shift XAI toward a more human-centered, action-oriented paradigm. By emphasizing foundational clarity over the development of ad-hoc methods, we hope to provide a roadmap for integrating explanations into actionable, feedback-driven AI systems.

We Need Explanation Cards to Connect Explanation Algorithms to the Real World

Algorithmic explanations are intended to help stakeholders understand opaque algorithmic decisions, but in practice, they often fall short. First, the meaning of algorithmic explanations is often not what one might intuitively expect, so expert knowledge is required to interpret them correctly. Second, recent work has shown that popular explanation algorithms are uninformative about the behavior of complex decision functions. Together, these issues create a gap between what explanations appear to convey and what they actually provide. In this work, we propose Explanation Cards for Explanation Algorithms, which augment standard explanations with complementary information about robustness and validity, as well as clear instructions for interpretation. The complementary information can render otherwise uninformative explanations practically useful, while also helping to detect cases where they are not. Importantly, the interpretation instructions in explanation cards shift responsibility from users to providers: Rather than expecting users to recognize what can and cannot be concluded from an explanation, providers must make this explicit upfront. Using counterfactual explanations and SHAP as examples, we demonstrate how providers can construct explanation cards and that these cards provide users with the guidance needed for sound interpretation. We further argue that explanation cards offer a practical means of operationalising the explainability provisions of the EU AI Act. Overall, explanation cards are a significant step toward making explanation algorithms fit for real-world use cases.