Adversarial Fast-Moving Real-World Domains as Test Beds for Benchmarking AI Scientist Capabilities

Benchmarking the ability of AI scientists to generate novel ideas is notoriously difficult. Existing benchmarks in this field have made progress in evaluating scientific reasoning and research replication, but often rely on synthetic tasks or retrospective targets, which may be confounded by prior exposure. We hypothesize that complex, adversarial, fast-moving real-world domains where expert practitioners independently generate observable outputs can provide a practical solution to fill this gap and evaluate the capabilities needed for AI scientists, including reasoning, novelty, and hypothesis formulation. We instantiate this framework in two structurally different domains, Formula 1 (F1), where models ideate around car design concepts for the 2026 season, and real pre-season innovations provide a ground truth, and Magic: The Gathering (MTG), where models propose decks from a recently updated card pool and are evaluated against 19 Pro Tour (PT) decklists. Across both domains, models produce plausible outputs, but few align with real-world expert solutions. In F1, the best model, GPT-5.2 matched 10 of 40 real innovations with 166 ideas proposed across runs. In MTG, the best deck from Gemini 3 Flash recovered 5 of 7 new-set cards from the third-place PT deck, and across all 108 decks, the cards models selected most often were also the cards most widely adopted by PT decks (Spearman $ρ= 0.74$, $p = 0.0003$). These results suggest that a key capability gap for AI scientists is not idea generation, but filtering, prioritization, and coherent novelty.

Using Large Language Models for Idea Generation in Innovation

This research evaluates the efficacy of large language models (LLMs) in generating new product ideas. To do so, we compare three pools of ideas for new products targeted toward college students and priced at 50 dollars or less. The first pool of ideas was created by university students in a product design course before the availability of LLMs. The second and third pools of ideas were generated by GPT-4 from OpenAI using zero-shot and few-shot prompting, respectively. We evaluated idea quality using standard market research techniques to predict average purchase intent probability. We used text mining to assess idea similarity and human raters to evaluate idea novelty. We find that AI-generated ideas outperform human-generated ideas in terms of average purchase intent, with few-shot prompting yielding slightly higher intent than zero-shot prompting. However, AI-generated ideas are perceived as less novel and exhibit higher pairwise similarity, particularly with few-shot prompting, indicating a less diverse solution landscape. When focusing on the quality of the best ideas rather than the average ideas, we find that AI-generated ideas are seven times more likely to rank among the top 10 percent of ideas, demonstrating a significant advantage over human-generated ideas. We propose that this seven-to-one advantage is a conservative estimate because it does not account for the greater productivity of AI. Our findings suggest that despite some drawbacks, AI creativity presents a substantial benefit in generating high-quality ideas for new product development.