Self-Explanation Tutor for Active Study of CS1 Worked Examples

Worked examples are a important part of introductory programming, but reading their expert explanations is passive. Self explanation, students explaining the problem and its solution to themselves with subgoal level analysis, turns that study into an active task, yet it is hard to scale because assessing free-text explanations and returning timely feedback has had no easy automated solution. We investigate whether a large language model (LLM) can fill that gap. We build a self-explanation tutor for introductory programming, ESSE, in which students explain lines of worked examples and receive immediate LLM feedback on the correctness and completeness of each explanation, and we pursue two goals. First, we ask whether the LLM judges student explanations well enough to serve as the engine of the tutor; we assess its judgments against two independent human reference standards of different kinds, a single domain expert and a crowd of non-expert raters, each with its own strengths and weaknesses, characterizing both where the LLM is reliable and the systematic tendencies in how it diverges. Second, we ask whether the LLM-based tutoring benefits students; deploying it in an introductory Java course, we find that its feedback leads students to persist and revise rather than abandon a line, that their explanations grow more complete and conceptually richer across attempts, and that students show evidence of learning. These indicate that LLM-based assessment is good enough to power a self-explanation tutor, and that the tutor positively shapes how students study worked examples.

An Integrated Machine Learning and Hierarchical Variance Decomposition Pipeline for Student Performance Prediction and Metacognitive Calibration on Multi-Signal Telemetry

Predicting student performance and characterizing metacognitive calibration are essential for personalization in intelligent tutoring systems. Prior research treats performance prediction, calibration error calculation, and variance decomposition as separate pipelines, preventing unified interpretation. I propose the Unified Behavioral Prediction and Calibration Analysis Pipeline (UBP-CAP), an integrated framework processing student pre-execution behavioral telemetry through three linked modules: (1) a LightGBM classifier with SHAP for binary correctness prediction, (2) formal calibration metrics (ECE, MCE, and Brier score decomposition) to evaluate metacognitive alignment, and (3) a crossed Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Model (GLMM) for decomposing calibration deviations. I introduce the Predictive-Explanatory Divergence Index (PEDI), which quantifies structural divergence between predictive and explanatory feature profiles. Evaluated on 1,195 interaction records (27 students, 45 tasks), Logistic Regression achieves AUC-ROC = 0.903, outperforming LightGBM (0.878). Student naive ECE (0.109) significantly exceeds model ECE (0.068), confirming systematic miscalibration. The crossed GLMM yields ICCStudent = 0.123, showing calibration is situational rather than dispositional. PEDIcos = 0.081 (p = 0.327) indicates structural alignment between prediction and explanation on shared behavioral features.