As authorship attribution systems are increasingly deployed to detect ghostwritten and AI-generated papers, their errors can support accusations against legitimate authors. These systems conflate stylistic similarity with individual identity. Researchers, however, study under advisors, and inherit their stylistic quirks. We build a corpus of arXiv authors with $\geq 2$ solo papers from the Mathematics Genealogy Project graph, giving $5{,}803$ total authors and $2{,}501$ ground-truth advisor-student pairings. Using embeddings from a fine-tuned model, advisors sit $39.9\%$ closer in cosine distance to their students than a random same-field author does. Using two open models, we reproduce the effect at $12.6\%$ and $14.5\%$. Academic siblings, two students of one advisor who may never have met, sit $30.4\%$ closer across $8{,}360$ pairs, even when they studied at different institutions. Pairs who share only institution and field show negligible similarity. Given a closed-set attribution task over the same corpus, the system's errors occur on the true author's advisor, student, academic sibling, or lab mate $11$ times more often than chance.
Large language models (LLMs) can leave small stylistic traces in text written with their help. The most discussed is the em-dash (U+2014), especially the unspaced form word---word, which is normal in typeset English prose but unusual in U.S. press writing, where AP style calls for spaced dashes. This study asks whether that trace is measurable in congressional press releases. In a preregistered design (OSF: 10.17605/OSF.IO/U5NEY), 146,239 scraper-sourced releases from 480 House and Senate offices (2021-2025, the open congress-press dataset) were analyzed: density of unspaced prose-form em-dashes per 1,000 characters of cleaned text, Poisson/negative-binomial models with a length offset, clustering by office. Density stayed within 0.10-0.12 per 1,000 characters through 2021-2024, then rose to 0.217 in 2025, more than twice the four-year baseline; the share of releases with such an em-dash rose from ~13% to 24.8%. The primary frequency ratio (2023-2025 vs 2021-2022) was 1.55 (95% CI 1.28-1.93; exact registered cut-off: 1.528), just above the prespecified 1.5x threshold. The rise was net-new (hyphen density stable), held within authors (75.6% of 262 continuous offices increased; p ~ 1e-16) and in a closed panel of 224 offices, and survived falsification tests: three placebo cut-offs were null, the pipeline showed no step at the 2024/2025 boundary, and continuing offices carried the rise. A segmented regression finds no step at the ChatGPT cut-off but a clear post-period acceleration; the 2025 rise is symmetric across parties and chambers. Because the registered validation gate was formally breached, the full preregistered decision rule was not met; the interpretation (broad diffusion of LLM-assisted writing as the models matured) is offered as exploratory. The em-dash remains a population-level marker, not a per-release authorship detector, and the design supports no causal claim.
Large language models (LLMs) can leave subtle stylistic traces in assisted text; one of the most cited is the em-dash (Unicode U+2014). Yet no one has measured whether em-dash use has changed in the scientific literature. This study, pre-registered on the Open Science Framework (HFT8C), used the full set of medRxiv full-text XML preprints from the official Text-and-Data-Mining resource. The primary cohort was first, original versions deposited 2020-2025 with an extractable Discussion section of at least 500 characters (N = 69,632). The primary endpoint was the presence of at least one em-dash in the Discussion; the principal measure was the absolute change in its prevalence between the pre-ChatGPT era (before 30 November 2022) and the post-ChatGPT era, estimated with a logistic model with standard errors clustered by first author. The analysis plan (six supporting analyses, six sensitivity analyses, two falsification tests) was frozen before any confirmatory result was computed. Em-dash prevalence in Discussion sections rose from 4.23% before ChatGPT to 11.58% afterward, an absolute increase of 7.35 percentage points (95% CI 6.94-7.77; odds ratio 2.96, 95% CI 2.77-3.17). The rise was not a sharp jump but a gradual, delayed acceleration: near 4% through 2023, 8.0% in 2024, and 20.3% in 2025. The effect survived every feasible sensitivity analysis (7.35-7.60 pp) and both falsification tests; a placebo split within the pre-LLM era showed no meaningful change (+0.13 pp, 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58), and was essentially absent in boilerplate sections. Independent LLM-associated lexical markers and within-paper section comparisons pointed the same way. The em-dash is a population-level indicator, not a per-paper detector of LLM use, and the design cannot establish causality; it shows that something in how scientific literature is written changed markedly in the early 2020s, and roughly when.