Restoring images degraded by adverse weather remains challenging due to spatially heterogeneous degradations. Many existing weather-specific restoration models rely on weather-agnostic global aggregation, naive cross-scale fusion, and deterministic objectives, which struggle to handle heterogeneous degradations in all-in-one adverse-weather settings. To address these limitations, we propose an Uncertainty-guided Adverse-weather Restoration Network (UAR-Net), a weather-specific AiO framework that integrates a gated transformer with balanced multi-scale skip connections. Specifically, we employ Gated Dual-scale Transformer Blocks (GDTB) to jointly model selective global interactions and multi-scale local structures, a progressive Balanced Multi-scale Skip Connection (BMSC) for balanced multi-scale feature integration, and an Uncertainty-Aware Refinement Head (URH) that performs artifact removal, detail enhancement, and predictive uncertainty estimation. The model is supervised by a Brightness-Aware Energy Loss (BAE-Loss) to encourage accurate reconstruction with well-calibrated uncertainty. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple adverse-weather benchmarks. The codes will open source upon acceptance.
Dmitry Golovchits, Seyed Sahand Mohammadi Ziabari, Ali Mohammed Mansoor Alsahagcs.CV
Anti-UAV systems increasingly fuse multiple sensors, yet their detection heads provide no per-modality reliability signal. This study evaluates whether evidential deep learning (EDL) heads, Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence fusion, and uncertainty-driven temporal sensor gating improve anti-UAV detection through a controlled ablation on three benchmarks: thermal tracking (AntiUAV600), RGB-audio-RF classification (TRIDENT), and RGB-IR tracking (MM-UAV). The EDL training objective improves accuracy over retrained sigmoid baselines (+5.9 percentage points in accuracy and a tripled tracker-on-absent rate in E1; +4.8 percentage points in classification accuracy in E2, surviving a clip-clustered bootstrap, p = 0.011) and ranks classification errors substantially better (entropy UAUC approximately 0.94 vs. 0.51). The remaining components do not support their respective hypotheses. DS fusion does not outperform simple probability averaging. Dirichlet vacuity adds no ranking power beyond predictive entropy and inverts at the detection level, where extreme background imbalance causes it to encode class membership rather than error likelihood, a failure also observed for entropy and sigmoid confidence. Temporal gating preserves accuracy only when nearly inactive and yields no realised latency saving on shared-backbone hardware. The benefit of evidential learning therefore arises primarily from its training objective rather than its uncertainty estimate; a crop-level control further localises the detection-level breakdown to anchor-level evaluation rather than the learned representation.
Landslides are widespread geological hazards, yet their automated detection and mapping in remote sensing imagery remain challenging because of their irregular morphology, ambiguous spectral signatures, and substantial domain shifts across imaging platforms. To overcome these challenges, we propose EarthLD, a vision-language-guided diffusion framework for open-world landslide understanding, enabling unified landslide recognition, mapping, and trigger interpretation. At its core, EarthLD formulates landslide understanding as a diffusion process that progressively infers the presence, spatial extent, and pixel-level boundaries of landslides from noisy latent representations. This probabilistic formulation enables the model to jointly perform image-level landslide recognition and mapping while characterizing predictive uncertainty. By integrating visual observations with contextual knowledge in the denoising process, EarthLD distinguishes diverse landslides from backgrounds, produces confidence-aware predictions for suspected regions, and maps landslide ranges. We additionally construct a global-scale open-world landslide benchmark by systematically harmonizing multiple publicly available remote sensing data collected by diverse institutions. Extensive experiments across regions, sensors, and triggering events demonstrate that EarthLD consistently outperforms existing landslide detection methods, highlighting its potential as a unified and robust solution for global geological-hazard monitoring and emergency response.
Stephane Da Silva Martins, Victor Petrovic, Emanuel Aldea +1cs.CV
Most trajectory forecasting models are trained on clean annotated histories, and are often evaluated under the same idealized assumption, although practical deployments rely on trajectories produced by imperfect multi-object trackers. The real-world observations exhibit localization jitter, missed or unstable detections, and data-association ambiguity, which are usually either ignored or removed through denoising. This paper instead treats tracking-derived reliability cues as an informative signal to be propagated to the predictor. We propose a plug-in uncertainty-aware formulation in which each observed state is encoded as an uncertain state representation, modeled by a Gaussian distribution whose covariance combines detection-level localization uncertainty and association-level ambiguity through the law of total variance. Existing backbones are adapted with minimal architectural changes: input trajectories are represented as Gaussian observations, and predicted trajectories are produced as Gaussian forecasts rather than deterministic coordinates. To train predictors that remain robust under structured observation noise, we combine temporally correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck perturbations with response-based knowledge distillation from a teacher trained on clean trajectories. Experiments on Oxford Town Centre and VIRAT using real tracker outputs, together with a complementary ETH/UCY pseudo-detection protocol, show that the proposed formulation improves displacement accuracy and the reliability-sharpness trade-off of probabilistic forecasts.
Sharanda Suttorp, Seyed Sahand Mohammadi Ziabari, Ali Mohammed Mansour Alsahagcs.CV
Anti-UAV perception systems must remain reliable when sensor streams degrade under occlusion, fast motion, or modality-specific failure. Existing multimodal anti-UAV systems fuse RGB and thermal streams deterministically, without modeling predictive uncertainty, and cannot express doubt when streams disagree. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) produces calibrated per-class uncertainty in a single forward pass. EDTC already exploits this for thermal-only perception, yet cross-modal evidential fusion remains unaddressed. This paper extends EDTC to multimodal RGB-Thermal perception via Discounted Belief Fusion (DBF), which converts inter-modal conflict into uncertainty mass before aggregating stream opinions. Bounding boxes are resolved by selecting the lower-uncertainty modality. On the Anti-UAV benchmark, multimodal fusion consistently outperforms either single stream (test Acc 0.670 vs. 0.604 IR, 0.598 RGB) at real-time speed (at least 38 FPS). However, DBF is empirically indistinguishable from undiscounted averaging: near-zero inter-modal conflict on this presence-dominated benchmark leaves the discounting step inert. The fused uncertainty is well-calibrated (ECE 0.057) yet expectedly a weaker localization failure detector than spatial variance (AUROC 0.626 vs. 0.739). The null result is structural: the benchmark's near-universal presence and vacuous miss-encoding jointly suppress inter-modal conflict, a diagnosis that delimits where conflict-aware fusion provides measurable benefit.
The perception-distortion trade-off poses a fundamental challenge in single-image super-resolution (SR). Although diffusion-based SR methods excel at generating perceptually realistic images, achieving high fidelity remains a key limitation. Recent advances in diffusion-based SR have shown promise in improving fidelity, but these methods often compromise perceptual quality due to their high reliance on a high-fidelity image. To address this, we introduce UGDiff, a novel diffusion guidance paradigm designed to further improve the perception-distortion balance. In particular, we first estimate the reconstruction uncertainty of the latent features corresponding to a high-fidelity image. This uncertainty is then used to guide the diffusion process to selectively restore high-frequency details in high-uncertainty regions, while preserving fidelity elsewhere. Furthermore, our guidance method adaptively identifies the high-uncertainty regions by considering not only the estimated uncertainty but also the posterior variance of the diffusion sampler at each timestep. This relaxes the reliance on the high-fidelity image in the later stages of sampling, thereby achieving a better perception-distortion balance. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our method performs favorably against state-of-the-art diffusion-based SR methods.
Panagiotis Sapoutzoglou, Jessy Ribaira, Martin Kanounnikoff +3cs.CV
Automated visual inspection in manufacturing aims to replace slow and inconsistent manual checks, but its economic value depends on whether its decisions can be trusted enough to automate routine inspection while reserving human expertise for ambiguous cases. In production-line settings, defective samples are scarce, since the process is optimized to produce good parts, which limits any learning-based inspector trained on real data alone. Compounding this, defect decisions emitted as hard labels with no confidence estimate carry an asymmetric cost: a false reject wastes a good product, while a false accept may increase the risk of undetected defects progressing through the production process. We address both problems by mitigating data scarcity through the generation of synthetic defective samples with a diffusion model, and meeting the need for confidence-aware decisions with a Bayesian classifier that defers ambiguous units to human review rather than misclassifying them. These components are embedded in a staged pipeline of successive, complementary checks. We evaluate how synthetic augmentation affects classification and localization on a test set of real defects, and examine the system's trustworthiness at three points: the decision, the synthetic data, and the pipeline structure. This work-in-progress reports preliminary results suggesting that diffusion-generated defects, combined with uncertainty-aware classification, can lower the cost of reaching a trustworthy, deployable inspection model under data scarcity.
Museum and archival datasets do not mirror historical artistic production, but materialize the contingent histories of collecting, preservation, cataloging, and digitization. This has direct consequences for interpreting pretrained image representations: they may appear to encode historical time while actually encoding the institutional conditions under which objects become visible as data. We describe this phenomenon as temporal entanglement and investigate it by formulating artwork dating as an uncertainty-aware regression task over frozen image embeddings. We evaluate several pretrained vision models on a temporally controlled Wikidata corpus of artworks. Our results show that these models contain usable temporal information, with Vision-Language Models (VLMs) outperforming purely visual self-supervised baselines. However, a qualitative analysis indicates that this temporal knowledge is shaped by various biases.
Ensuring not only high accuracy but also reliable and robust predictions is critical for the deployment of semantic segmentation models in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. Despite the widespread use of CutMix - a simple yet powerful data augmentation strategy - its effect on the reliability and robustness in dense predictions tasks remains unexplored. Motivated by recent findings that semi-supervised segmentation methods, where CutMix is a core component, can severely degrade reliability, this study isolates and systematically analyzes the influence of CutMix on segmentation accuracy, calibration, and uncertainty quality. We evaluate two representative architectures, the CNN-based DeepLabV3+ and the transformer-based SegFormer, across both in-domain and out-of-domain scenarios. Our results show that CutMix has only a minor impact on segmentation accuracy but consistently improves the reliability, particularly under distribution shifts. These improvements indicate that CutMix primarily enhances the trustworthiness of the model's calibration and uncertainty rather than the raw segmentation prediction itself. This distinction is crucial for safety-critical deployment, where reliable confidence estimates are as important as raw performance.
Karel Becerra, Boris Mederos, Dean Snow +1cs.CV cs.AI cs.LG
Determining the biological sex of the individuals who created Upper Paleolithic hand stencils remains a challenging problem due to the absence of ground truth, population differences between contemporary and prehistoric groups, and the uncertainty introduced by image degradation. Traditional morphometric methods suffer from high structural overlap across sexes, poor cross-population generalizability, and subjective feature engineering. This study presents an uncertainty-aware deep learning framework for sex attribution in prehistoric hand stencils that explicitly models, propagates, and aggregates uncertainty throughout the analytical pipeline. The methodology combines dual image processing, dual contour extraction, structured silhouette augmentation, model architectural diversity, and ensemble-based decision aggregation. The pipeline generates twelve plausible silhouette realizations per stencil to capture boundary uncertainties, which are processed by two ensembles of ten deep neural networks each (EfficientNet-B3 and MobileViT-S) trained on 14,036 contemporary hand samples. Furthermore, a triangulated validation scheme integrates ensemble predictions with unsupervised 2D latent-space manifold mapping (UMAP + k-NN) and explainable AI spatial attributions (LayerCAM) to ensure anatomical consistency. On contemporary data, ensemble models achieve strong classification performance, with accuracies exceeding 88% in older age groups. When applied to prehistoric stencils, the framework produces both sex predictions and confidence measures of internal agreement, enabling the distinction between morphologically stable and ambiguous cases. Convergence across ensemble predictions, latent-space structure, and interpretability analyses shows that uncertainty can become a measurable component of archaeological inference, enabling robust and reproducible decoding of ancient rock art.
Generative semantic segmentation exposes structured predictions as images, but direct color decoding is susceptible to color drift and boundary mixing, whereas latent-feature decoders that predict a separate output distribution may relegate the rendered image to an intermediate visualization. We present Semantic Prism, a conditional semantic-image generation-and-refinement framework with deterministic inference. A diffusion-distilled one-step generator renders a semantic RGB image; per-pixel distances from the rendered colors to a fixed class-color codebook define an explicit probabilistic interface. Hierarchical Generator Evidence Alignment spatially aligns multi-level generator features and uses a zero-initialized output projection to predict an additive residual in the interface logit space, retaining the image-defined interface as the reference for the final distribution. The interface and refined distributions further enable Contextual Interface--Hierarchy Disagreement (C-IHD), a fixed readout for ranking remaining pixel errors without an auxiliary predictor or additional forward pass. On the 500-image Cityscapes validation set, Semantic Prism achieves 72.07% mean intersection over union, 11.39 mIoU points above direct-interface decoding, with 0.41% expected calibration error. Matched-capacity ablations over three seeds support the benefit of jointly aligned multi-level evidence. A separately trained model attains 62.22% mIoU on BDD100K, while the Cityscapes-trained model reaches 46.89\% mIoU under source-frozen transfer to the Adverse Conditions Dataset with Correspondences, without target-domain adaptation. Across all three datasets, C-IHD consistently improves the area under the precision--recall curve for pixel-error ranking over maximum softmax probability on the same segmentation predictions; on ACDC, it raises AUPR from 0.6580 to 0.7557.
Per-point uncertainty models are important in structured-light 3D reconstruction for probabilistic registration, fusion, and quality assessment. In practice, however, point-cloud covariances are often modeled as isotropic constants or inferred from local surface geometry and therefore do not explicitly reflect the measurement process. This is a limitation in fringe projection profilometry (FPP), where phase noise propagates through calibrated reconstruction and produces strongly anisotropic 3D uncertainty. This paper presents a sensor-informed first-order method for constructing a per-point 3 x 3 covariance field from experimentally measured phase precision and calibrated phase-to-depth and phase-to-3D mappings. The formulation separates a rank-1 phase-induced covariance from an effective full-rank completion obtained by incorporating fitted lateral image-space perturbation scales. Repeated-plane experiments under fixed imaging conditions show close alignment of the dominant covariance direction with the viewing ray, and consistency between the dominant phase-induced uncertainty scale and scalar depth uncertainty. In G-ICP registration, the proposed covariance substantially improves over a constant isotropic model while providing a sensor-derived uncertainty representation complementary to conventional geometry-based covariances.
Reliable semi-dense matching is essential for modern geometric vision systems. Designed under a coarse-to-fine paradigm, it achieves an optimal balance between performance and computational cost. However, existing methods often struggle to provide well-quantified uncertainties, where catastrophic coarse-assignment failures are ignored, leading to truncated error distributions and severely misjudged geometric estimations. In this paper, we propose a lightweight, post-hoc overall uncertainty estimation framework that introduces a two-component calibrated Laplace mixture model with only 9 learnable parameters. The objective is to explicitly capture both the sharp local refinement noise and the broader tail of coarse-assignment failures. We introduce the Coarse-success posterior Refit (CoRe) method, a geometric refitting module that utilizes the posterior probability of coarse-assignment success as soft correspondence weights. Extensive experiments show that our method consistently improves downstream geometric accuracy across various pretrained-only matchers and robust estimators with minimal computational overhead. Our code is available at https://github.com/khoavpt/Probabilistic-matching.
Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) provide an interpretable framework by grounding predictions in human-understandable concepts, enabling semantic inspection and test-time intervention. Recent variants have improved CBMs through richer concept representations, uncertainty estimation, and dependency modeling. However, robust reasoning under unreliable concept states remains underexplored. Without such reasoning, misleading semantic evidence can propagate through the bottleneck, compromising both explanations and downstream predictions. To address this issue, we propose ReCBM, an uncertainty-gated relational reasoning framework for CBMs. ReCBM introduces semantically defined concept relations into the bottleneck and uses uncertainty to guide their refinement. By modeling co-occurrence, implication, and exclusion, ReCBM specifies how evidence is exchanged across concepts, while uncertainty modulates the contribution of each concept during this process. Experiments across diverse datasets showed that ReCBM improved concept and task recovery under missing and flipped concepts, supported uncertainty-aware intervention, and extracted compact task-relevant concept subsets without degrading downstream performance.
LiDAR-based Scene Coordinate Regression (SCR) maps point clouds directly to 3D scene coordinates, enabling precise 6-DoF localisation without explicit map retrieval. However, existing methods produce deterministic predictions, discarding aleatoric uncertainty that could improve robustness and downstream decision-making. We present UQ-Loc, which extends the LightLoc architecture with an anisotropic Gaussian covariance head that predicts a full 3x3 positive-definite covariance matrix per voxel. Training uses a Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) loss augmented with a kNN-based spatial smoothness regulariser, while inference employs a modified SC2-PCR solver with uncertainty-weighted seed scoring and a Mahalanobis-distance inlier test. We adopt Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a principled metric for evaluating the quality of the predicted uncertainty. Experiments demonstrate that UQ-Loc achieves consistent improvement in 6-DoF localization accuracy while producing well-calibrated covariances.
Latent reward models can supervise visual diffusion models without decoding intermediate states into pixel space. This makes alignment with human preferences more efficient. However, existing latent reward models output only scalar scores. They do not estimate the uncertainty of each prediction. The generator therefore cannot determine which feedback is reliable. This can drive optimization in the wrong direction and lead to reward hacking. We propose \textsc{SURE}, a unified latent-space framework for image and video diffusion models. It learns reward distributions and directly uses their reliability to guide dense post-training. First, we propose sample-adaptive latent reward model (\textsc{SURE-LRM}). It predicts a Gaussian utility for each noisy latent. Its mean predicts the reward score. Its variance reflect the uncertainty of prediction without human annotation. The learned distribution then guides post-training through uncertainty-guided reward feedback learning (\textsc{SURE-REFL}). This method provides uncertainty-guided dense feedback along the denoising trajectory. At selected transitions, \textsc{SURE-REFL} queries the frozen \textsc{SURE-LRM}. It converts detached variance into reliability weights for samples at the same transition. Each weighted reward is backpropagated only through its local transition. The entire process remains in latent space and requires neither pixel-space decoding nor the full denoising graph. Experiments show that \textsc{SURE-LRM} improves preference prediction over strong baselines. \textsc{SURE-REFL} achieves the sota performance among various metrics and further improves optimization stability. It also achieves the highest VBench quality, semantic, and total scores among the evaluated methods.
Test-time adaptation (TTA) can improve the recognition accuracy of vision-language models under distribution shift, but often degrades calibration, making predictive confidence unreliable for downstream decision-making. Many existing label-free calibration approaches are either coupled to prompt optimization or rely on logit-range statistics that provide only a coarse characterization of the predictive distribution. We show that TTA can increase confidence and reduce entropy even when the top-1 prediction and its correctness remain unchanged, a failure mode we term prediction-preserving sharpening. Across diverse TTA methods and benchmarks, larger entropy reductions relative to paired zero-shot predictions are associated with greater increases in Expected Calibration Error (ECE). On entropy-reduced samples, confidence gains also tend to exceed accuracy gains. Based on these findings, we propose Zero-Shot-Anchored Entropy Calibration (ZAEC), a label-free post-hoc method that uses zero-shot entropy as a sample-specific uncertainty reference. ZAEC selectively restores the zero-shot entropy of sharpened predictions through minimal temperature scaling while leaving all other predictions unchanged. It requires no labeled calibration data or learned parameters and preserves class rankings and classification accuracy. Across five TTA methods and 15 datasets, ZAEC achieves the lowest post-hoc macro-average ECE on ViT-B/16, with consistent gains on RN50.
In real-world hyperspectral scenes, pixel representations are often ambiguous due to factors such as spectral similarity, mixed pixels, and local context interference, which may simultaneously encode discriminative evidence and interfering information. Existing methods mainly focus on learning more powerful representations or modeling broader contexts, but rarely investigate whether the learned representations provide reliable evidence or introduce interference into classification decisions. To address this issue, we view hyperspectral image classification from the perspective of pixel-level evidence reliability modeling and propose PNEC-Mamba, a prototype-guided positive-negative evidence calibration framework. The framework progressively establishes semantic references, separates class-related evidence from interference, estimates pixel-level reliability, and performs selective calibration. First, a full-image state-space encoder extracts pixel representations, while dynamic class prototypes provide semantic references that evolve jointly with the feature space. Subsequently, positive and negative evidence is derived from pixel-prototype competition, explicitly separating discriminative cues that support classification from confusing signals associated with competing classes. Based on these evidence relationships, a multi-source uncertainty estimation strategy is introduced to assess pixel-level reliability, enabling stronger evidence calibration for uncertain regions. Finally, a full-resolution consistency refinement step is applied to recover local spatial details and improve boundary coherence in the final predictions. Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that PNEC-Mamba achieves superior classification performance compared with state-of-the-art methods.
Reliable decision-support in digital agriculture requires accurate predictions and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, particularly for dense prediction tasks such as semantic segmentation. Ensemble methods provide strong uncertainty quantification, but their computational and memory demands limit practical use, while single-model approximations often trade off uncertainty quality for efficiency. We propose ST-LoRA, a parameter-efficient ensemble framework that builds diverse ensemble members from a single training trajectory by combining Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) with snapshot ensembling. Each member shares a frozen pretrained backbone and differs only in lightweight low-rank adapters, reducing trainable parameters to under 10% of the full model while preserving ensemble diversity. We evaluate across two agricultural datasets - GrowliFlower-L (cauliflower, open field) and BUP20 (sweet pepper, glasshouse) - using SegFormer and Mask2Former, covering in-distribution performance, calibration under distribution shift, and out-of-distribution detection. Ablations show feed-forward layers, not attention layers, are the critical LoRA target for dense prediction, contrary to the attention-only convention from language models. ST-LoRA matches or exceeds full-rank ensembles in segmentation accuracy and calibration across both datasets and architectures, while substantially reducing training time, inference latency, memory footprint, and storage requirements. Against efficient baselines - Snapshot Ensemble, MC Dropout, and Deep Deterministic Uncertainty - ST-LoRA consistently matches or outperforms them in image/pixel-level OoD detection, calibration stability under shift, and cross-seed variance, with far fewer parameters and lower compute. These results show LoRA-efficient ensemble adaptation is a highly effective, practical approach for uncertainty-aware agricultural vision systems.
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are attractive for resource-constrained remote-sensing systems, but reliable out-of-distribution (OOD) detection remains challenging. Deep ensembles provide strong predictive uncertainty, yet require multiple complete models and backbone evaluations. We propose an efficient spiking pseudo-ensemble that attaches multiple lightweight classification heads to a frozen SNN backbone. Naively training these heads with cross-entropy can lead to diversity collapse, where independently parameterized heads may produce correlated predictions. To address this, we introduce an agree--disagree objective that preserves correct predictions on clean in-distribution samples while encouraging diversity on structured, uncertainty-inducing transformations of the same inputs. This provides a diversity-promoting training signal without requiring external OOD data. Experiments with Spikformer and ResNet19-SNN on EuroSAT demonstrate consistent improvements over conventionally trained pseudo-ensembles. Using three backbones with five heads each matches or improves upon a five-model deep ensemble on UCM and AID, while requiring approximately 38% fewer parameters and 40% fewer backbone evaluations. These results show that explicit diversity promotion can recover useful ensemble-style uncertainty at substantially lower deployment cost.
Deep learning based object detectors require trustworthiness beyond competitive detection performance, but deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions, assigning high confidence scores to predictions that are likely to be inaccurate. To improve the alignment between confidence scores and prediction accuracy, existing methods calibrate confidence scores based on box-level localization, such as precision or intersection over union with the ground truth bounding box. However, box-level localization reflects only a measure of agreement between the predicted box and the ground truth, resulting in calibrated confidence scores for box-level accuracy failing to capture the localization accuracy of coordinates of box. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel post-hoc calibration framework, rethinking detection calibration (ReDC), which provides reliable coordinate-level confidence scores, including directional information. The proposed framework defines coordinate-wise alignment and deviation direction between predictions and ground truth. Based on the alignment measure, confidence re-encoding produces reliable coordinate-level confidence scores, while directional displacement estimation predicts coordinate-wise deviation directions. Extensive experiments under in-domain and out-domain scenarios demonstrate that the proposed approach expresses the coordinate-wise localization of detected objects more precisely than existing methods. Furthermore, our method covers the representational scope of prior calibration approaches by aggregating coordinate-level confidence scores into box-level localization.
Muhammad Umar Farooq, Kutub Uddin, Awais Khan +1cs.CV
Security-critical biometric and forensic applications require accurate predictions and reliable confidence estimates, particularly under distribution shift. This challenge is especially acute for deepfake detection, where foundation-model-based detectors often exhibit overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution manipulations, which limits their suitability for operational deployment. We propose an uncertainty-aware deepfake detection framework that identifies manipulations through inconsistencies across complementary evidence sources. The framework integrates three streams: a visual stream based on an adapted CLIP encoder, a semantic stream that models consistency among facial attributes through differentiable constraints, and a structural stream that captures class-dependent dependency patterns between semantic and forensic features. To effectively combine these signals, we introduce Inter-Branch Disagreement Calibration (IBDC), a disagreement-aware uncertainty modeling mechanism that links predictive uncertainty to conflicts among evidence streams. Extensive cross-dataset experiments using FaceForensics++ as the training source demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art generalization across multiple out-of-distribution benchmarks while consistently improving calibration and selective prediction performance. These results show that combining complementary evidence with disagreement-aware uncertainty provides a robust foundation for trustworthy and well-calibrated deepfake detection under distribution shift.
Reconstructing dynamic surgical scenes is crucial for robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery; however, it continues to be difficult because of tissue deformation, occlusions, specular reflections, and restricted viewpoints. In this study, we introduce Endo-NeRF++, a neural rendering framework that accounts for uncertainty in the reconstruction of dynamic surgical scenes. Expanding on EndoNeRF, the suggested approach incorporates multi-resolution hash-grid encoding, temporal feature merging, and uncertainty-informed adaptive sampling to enhance reconstruction accuracy and temporal coherence in deformable endoscopic scenes.The multi-resolution hash-grid representation within the framework effectively captures both coarse and fine anatomical details, while temporal feature blending ensures stable reconstruction during tissue deformation and surgical tool occlusions. Additionally, uncertainty-driven adaptive sampling assigns more samples to uncertain areas to enhance rendering quality and geometric coherence. Experiments on robotic surgical video sequences demonstrate that the proposed uncertainty-guided adaptive sampling improves PSNR by up to 1.22\,dB (4.3\%), increases SSIM by up to 5.3\%, and reduces LPIPS by up to 55.1\% compared with the EndoNeRF baseline.
Alexej Klushyn, Juan Rivero Sesma, Florian Seligmann +3cs.CV
YOLO-Pose models provide efficient keypoint localization, but do not quantify the associated spatial uncertainty. We introduce a lightweight post-hoc probabilistic extension that augments a trained YOLO-Pose model with calibrated bivariate predictive distributions over keypoint locations, centered at the model's original predictions. Concretely, we train additional probabilistic heads with an importance-weighted negative log-likelihood to predict an input-dependent $2\times2$ dispersion matrix for each keypoint, followed by Gaussian calibration for broad downstream compatibility or Student-$t$ calibration for distributional fidelity. Complementing this, we propose an evaluation protocol that combines a suite of distributional calibration diagnostics with average keypoint precision (AKP), a keypoint-level extension of the COCO AP protocol for assessing reliability rankings. Experiments on COCO show that the learned uncertainty estimates enable effective keypoint-level reliability ranking, Student-$t$ calibration best captures the empirical residual distribution, and uncertainty-based pruning removes unreliable keypoints. A central application-level demonstration is vision-based aircraft landing, where calibrated covariances for runway keypoints support uncertainty-aware aircraft position estimation and downstream sensor fusion.
Predicting how a scene may evolve from partial observations requires reasoning about multiple possible futures rather than committing to a single trajectory. Existing approaches either generate appearance-dominated video predictions or sample a small number of trajectories without explicitly modeling the distribution of possible motion. We introduce Goal-Aware Representations of Future kInEmatic Latent Distributions (GARFIELD), a probabilistic model of scene kinematics that learns a structured spatio-temporal latent representation of the distribution over possible futures given an image and optional spatio-temporally sparse constraints. The same latent representation enables both joint sampling of all trajectories and direct access to the underlying motion distribution through an efficient deterministic density decoder. As a result, uncertainty about future motion can be localized to specific scene elements and timesteps and progressively refined through additional constraints. Experiments demonstrate strong motion planning performance competitive with large video generation models while sampling trajectories $97\times$ faster. Our method further estimates motion densities two orders of magnitude faster than Monte-Carlo sampling from motion generation models, enabling interactive exploration and uncertainty-aware planning.
Elijah Danquah Darko, Min Xian, Terence Soule +2cs.CV cs.AI
Interactive image segmentation is critical for efficient image annotation; however, existing methods often require many corrective clicks or rely on passive refinement schemes that converge slowly. We propose Uncertainty-Guided Cascade Forward Refinement (U-CFR), a novel inference-time framework that enables models to autonomously self-correct after each user interaction. U-CFR introduces a boundary-aware uncertainty score that fuses segmentation uncertainty, contour gradients, and explicit edge predictions to guide the placement of internal pseudo-clicks. These self-generated clicks target the most ambiguous boundary regions, providing strong corrective signals without additional manual input. To support this process, we design a dual-head network with a shared encoder-decoder backbone: a segmentation head ensures region consistency, while an edge head sharpens boundary alignment. In inference, U-CFR launches a cascade of refinement steps, where each stage leverages the uncertainty-driven pseudo-clicks to refine the mask progressively. Experiments on standard benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed U-CFR improves click efficiency, initial mask quality, and boundary accuracy. It reduces the required clicks by over 10% on challenging datasets like Berkeley and offers a more intelligent and efficient interactive annotation.
Mohammadreza Jamalifard, Yaxiong Lei, Javier Fumanal Idocin +3cs.CV cs.HC
Deep gaze estimation works well in controlled capture but degrades in unconstrained settings, where systems must reject unreliable predictions. Single-pass uncertainty (e.g., heteroscedastic regression) infers uncertainty from pixels without explicit input-validity cues, while sampling based methods are often too costly for real time use. We propose Factor-Informed Uncertainty Distillation (FIUD), a teacher-student framework that aligns uncertainty with interpretable image-quality failure modes. A gradient-boosting teacher predicts expected gaze error from factors such as illumination, sharpness, eye visibility and symmetry; a neural student distills these signals via curriculum learning and ranking supervision into a lightweight single-pass uncertainty head. Across ETH-XGaze, Gaze360, and MPIIFaceGaze (>300k samples), FIUD improves uncertainty, error rank correlation and selective prediction versus deterministic and sampling-based baselines, with the largest gains in unconstrained settings.
Accurate yield forecasting at the individual-plant level is critical for precision agriculture and supply-chain planning, yet public datasets capturing both visual growth dynamics and per-plant measurement labels are scarce. In this paper, we introduce a novel, annotated image time-series dataset of 691 sweet pepper plants monitored over two growing seasons, comprising 4837 images with per-plant fruit counts categorized by maturity. We propose a multimodal deep learning framework that fuses high-dimensional image features, extracted using the DinoV3 encoder, with numerical count measurements. Our architecture utilizes a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to model temporal dependencies and handles irregular sampling intervals common in greenhouse monitoring. Through quantitative experiments, we demonstrate that this multimodal approach reduces RMSE over a persistence baseline by 33% and 38% in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, respectively, with a further 1.2% average gain over a measurement-only model. Furthermore, we employ Deep Ensembles and Gaussian Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) to provide calibrated uncertainty estimates, with an Uncertainty Calibration Error (UCE) ranging from 0.39 to 0.89 depending on the cross-season evaluation direction, offering a principled confidence signal for real-world agricultural decision-making. We release the dataset and code to support reproducible research and to accelerate development of data-driven yield forecasting methods for horticultural crops.
Andrei Foitos, Ivo Pascal de Jong, Matias Valdenegro-Torocs.CV cs.LG
Estimating the apparent age of individuals from facial images is challenging due to the subjective nature of perception and the inherent variability of the data. We investigate the role of uncertainty estimation, attributing uncertainty jointly to a lack of knowledge (epistemic) or inherent noise/chance (aleatoric). Leveraging the APPA-REAL dataset, we train Bayesian Neural Networks on datasets of varying sizes using three BNN approximations: MC-DropConnect, Flipout, and Deep Ensembles using supervision on human aleatoric uncertainty available in the APPA-REAL dataset. Each model outputs both the predicted apparent age and the amount of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Our results confirm the hypothesis that the inherent aleatoric uncertainty remains stable across dataset sizes, while epistemic uncertainty increases as training data decreases. These findings demonstrate that different sources of uncertainty can be quantified in face age estimation.
Salah Eddine Bekhouche, Abdellah Zakaria Sellam, Fadi Dornaika +1cs.CV
We present \textbf{AffectFlow-DINO}, a multi-task learning system for the 11th ABAW challenge that extends a standard deterministic architecture with a conditional rectified-flow head to model the inherent ambiguity of in-the-wild facial behavior. Instead of predicting a single affect estimate, the model learns a conditional generative distribution, enabling uncertainty-aware one-to-many predictions through Monte Carlo sampling. The system jointly estimates continuous valence-arousal, classifies eight facial expressions, and detects twelve Action Units from static face images. Built on a frozen DINOv3 ViT-S/16 backbone, extensive ablation studies show that rectified-flow decoding consistently improves deterministic prediction, particularly for valence-arousal estimation (CCC-V $+0.058$). We further show that post-hoc threshold calibration effectively recovers performance on severely imbalanced rare classes (e.g., Fear: $3.8\% \rightarrow 33.1\%$) without retraining. Combined with backbone fine-tuning and flow retuning, the final model achieves $\mathbf{P_{MTL}=1.177}$, substantially outperforming the official challenge baseline of $P_{MTL}=0.45$.