Ensuring the reliability of deep learning models in real-time industrial defect detection is critical for high-stakes quality inspection. To mine uncertain samples within continuous industrial media streams, thereby enhancing the reliability of the detection system, this paper proposes a streaming active learning method based on the Fuzzy Dual-dimensional Uncertainty (FuDU) framework. Specifically, we first design a Prototype-based Global Uncertainty Quantification (PGUQ) module on the backbone to evaluate image-level uncertainty via normal/defective feature prototypes. A Dual-entropy defect Uncertainty Evaluator (DeUE) is then integrated into the detection head to quantify box-level uncertainty. Finally, by modeling uncertainty as systematic error, we propose a fuzzy dual-dimensional uncertainty-aware strategy that leverages fuzzy inference to fuse dual-dimensional uncertainties, enabling expert knowledge-driven adaptive sampling decisions. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that FuDU is efficient and flexible, making it well-suited for challenging industrial inspection tasks such as the detection of nuclear fuel rod defects. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/wangzhaoyang-508/FuDU.
Leonhard F. Feiner, Manuel Nickel, Martin Menten +6cs.LG cs.CV
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) plays a vital role in enhancing the reliability of deep learning model predictions, especially in scenarios with high-dimensional output spaces. This paper addresses the dual nature of uncertainty -- aleatoric and epistemic -- focusing on their joint integration in high-dimensional regression tasks. For example, in applications like medical image segmentation or restoration, aleatoric uncertainty captures inherent data noise, while epistemic uncertainty quantifies the model's confidence in unfamiliar conditions. Modeling both jointly enables more reliable predictions by reflecting both unavoidable variability and knowledge gaps, whereas modeling only one limits transparency and robustness. We propose a novel approach that approximates the resulting joint uncertainty using a low-rank plus diagonal covariance structure, capturing essential output correlations while avoiding the computational burdens of full covariance matrices. Unlike prior work, our method explicitly combines aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties into a unified second-order distribution that supports robust downstream analyses like sampling and log-likelihood evaluation. We further introduce stabilization strategies for efficient training and inference, achieving superior UQ in the tasks of image inpainting, colorization, optical flow, and depth estimation.
Stochastic human motion prediction aims to forecast future motion distributions. Although recent studies have achieved strong performance in terms of accuracy and diversity, they often overlook plausibility (e.g., resulting in physically unrealistic predictions) and uncertainty quantification, both of which are essential for real-world applications and downstream tasks. To address these issues, we propose a latent flow-based model equipped with a data-driven Gaussian mixture prior that more effectively disentangles diverse human behaviors than conventional single-modal priors. This prior is derived from patterns in the training data without requiring additional annotations. Furthermore, the fully invertible nature of our model enables natural uncertainty quantification through tractable likelihood computation. Experiments on the Human3.6M and AMASS datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in both accuracy and plausibility.
Steven Landgraf, Joceline Hinz, Markus Ulrichcs.CV cs.AI cs.LG
Foundation models are increasingly breaking what seemed to be impossible not long ago by enabling unprecedented accuracy and cross-domain generalization. Yet their lack of interpretability, tendency to be overconfident, and sensitivity to real-world domain shifts pose critical challenges for safety- and mission-critical applications. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) offers a principled way to address these issues, but its integration into segmentation foundation models has yet to be explored. In this paper we present the first systematic evaluation of UQ methods applied to a foundation model for semantic segmentation. We fine-tune a lightweight DPT decoder on top of the pretrained SAM2 encoder to establish a simple yet competitive baseline and benchmark four representative UQ approaches - Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Sub-Ensemble, Test-Time Augmentation, and Evidential Deep Learning - across Cityscapes, NYUv2, and two challenging out-of-domain settings. Our analysis compares segmentation accuracy, calibration, uncertainty quality, and inference time, revealing clear trade-offs between predictive performance, reliability, and computational cost. These results highlight both the promise and the current limitations of uncertainty-aware foundation models, pointing to the need for future work that jointly optimizes accuracy, robustness, and efficiency for real-world deployment.
Nils Lehmann, Jakob Gawlikowski, Burak Ekim +2cs.CV
Geospatial Foundation Models (GeoFMs) are most commonly ranked and selected by accuracy on standard benchmark conditions via averaged ranks. We show that this protocol is too narrow: the promised deployment in critical EO tasks requires further angles of analysis, mainly calibration, the agreement between a model's confidence and its correctness. Across 16 frozen encoders, four classification and five segmentation datasets, and two orthogonal stress axes, every encoder degrades as corruption intensifies, and the ranking changes as well. Across the four classification benchmarks, EO-pretrained and ImageNet-pretrained encoders are indistinguishable on clean accuracy and clean calibration, and EO pretraining provides no more stability under shift than ImageNet pretraining. Under shift the GeoFMs drift further into overconfidence than the ImageNet-pretrained encoders, at every grade and in every corruption family. A centered kernel alignment (CKA) analysis ties this to representational rigidity: EO-pretrained embeddings move less under corruption while losing just as much task information and remaining overconfident. We apply three commonly explored uncertainty quantification methods and find that temperature scaling and deep ensembles cannot counteract the degradation, while a Gaussian-process probe roughly halves ECE under severe cloud only by tripling it on clean data. In selective prediction experiments, we find that confidence-based abstention cannot defer around confidently wrong predictions, and advocate that benchmark rankings and evaluations should therefore operate across a multitude of conditions and metrics to more holistically evaluate model development progress and close the gap to real world deployment scenarios.
Event boundaries in continuous video are ambiguous: re-annotate the same query-video pair and independent annotators mark moments that overlap by less than half on a large fraction of samples. The ground truth for video temporal grounding is therefore a distribution over intervals, yet every grounder returns a single interval with no statement of reliability, so at deployment a wrong interval is indistinguishable from a right one. COVER changes the output object: a post-hoc, model-agnostic wrapper that turns any grounder, a trained localizer or a black-box video--language model, into one that emits a temporal region containing the true moment with probability at least $1-α$, by calibrating the quantile of a temporal nonconformity score on held-out labels and widening the base prediction by that amount. The guarantee is finite-sample and distribution-free under exchangeability, and requires neither retraining nor white-box access. We give two score families, a two-sided boundary-widening score for grounders that emit an interval and a super-level-set score for grounders that emit a relevance signal, and develop theory specific to grounding that bounds how large the certified region becomes, when coverage survives conditioning on event length, and how it degrades when moments from one video break exchangeability. Across three benchmarks and five grounders, realized coverage tracks the target, and calibration exposes what point metrics hide.
Active 3D reconstruction relies on active view selection to maximize reconstruction fidelity under limited capture budgets. However, most existing methods rely on surrogate signals such as parameter uncertainty or geometric heuristics, but these signals are often misaligned with the ultimate goal: the fidelity of rendered predictions. We propose GO-PRE, a goal-oriented next-best-view selection framework that explicitly targets information gain in the prediction space. Specifically, we formulate the objective as maximizing the reduction of the average marginal predictive entropy over a user-specified target view manifold. GO-PRE supports interactive goal specification and yields an efficient acquisition rule that enables real-time computation of information gain. Extensive experiments across benchmarks demonstrate that GO-PRE consistently improves active reconstruction performance and provides more reliable uncertainty quantification compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Qixuan Zhang, Jonas Boettcher, Simon F. G. Ehlers +1cs.CV cs.RO
Accurate articulation angle estimation of trucks with trailers is critical for autonomous driving and advanced driver assistance system (ADAS). Existing methods either require manual initialization, additional sensors, or prior knowledge and signals from trailers, or they lack real-world validation, limiting practical deployment. This paper presents multiple learning-based models to directly estimate articulation angles from visual and kinematic inputs, eliminating the need for dedicated driving maneuvers for initialization, bounding box annotations, trailer-mounted sensor signals, or prior knowledge of trailer parameters. Two learning-based models are integrated with a kinematic model within an extended Kalman filter (EKF) framework, and an adaptive weighting scheme based on uncertainty quantification is applied for measurements involving visual input. Extensive real-world experiments with different trailer types demonstrate the approaches' robustness and generalization under out-of-domain conditions, including new trailers, varying colors, and lighting conditions. Results show that the hybrid method achieves accurate and reliable articulation angle estimation while maintaining reduced implementation requirements and practical deployment advantages.
Single-shot fringe projection profilometry (FPP) networks that regress depth directly can exploit a shape-prior shortcut, recovering depth from object boundaries rather than from fringe phase. On a photorealistic synthetic benchmark (15,600 fringe images, 50 objects at 1.5-2.1 m standoff), the best such UNet baseline plateaus at 14.54 mm object mean absolute error (MAE), and neither more data nor more capacity removes the shortcut, because neither changes the hypothesis space the optimizer searches. We introduce PhiCalNet, which outputs a wrapped-phase representation $(\sinφ, \cosφ)$ and maps it to depth through a fixed differentiable calibration layer, removing the shape-prior solution architecturally rather than by a loss penalty. Because the single-shot mapping is non-injective without fringe order, PhiCalNet takes the fringe order as auxiliary input, an assumption a sensitivity analysis shows tolerates realistic decoding error; a physics-informed (PINN) baseline with the same physics as a soft penalty yields no gain, isolating the architectural choice as the operative factor. PhiCalNet reduces object MAE 3.3x to 4.46 mm, its residual confined to 0.103% of pixels at the $\pmπ$ wrap discontinuity, and a three-frame extension reaches 1.16 mm. Two checks agree: interpretability makes phase the most decodable internal feature, and pixel-wise conformal uncertainty quantification, to our knowledge the first for FPP, localizes error at the same discontinuity, where rejecting the top 5% of pixels by snapshot disagreement cuts root-mean-square error by 64% versus 3.5% for the baseline.
Conformal predictions have attracted significant attention in the field of uncertainty quantification, mainly because of their strong marginal coverage guarantees. Full conditional guarantee is not an attainable goal, a well known fact in conformal predictions literature. As a result, several approaches have tried to approximate this behavior by adapting the conformal sets of test-time samples according to their similarity to calibration examples. Although the latter has gained traction and shown impressive performances for regression problems, its application to image classification remains under-explored. We conduct an extensive benchmarking on natural image classification tasks with vision-language models (VLMs), using our open source implementation of a recent localized conformal prediction algorithm. We show that straightforward usage of the cosine similarity between test-time and calibration visual features, an intuitive choice for VLMs, is not sufficient to improve over the non-local baselines. In response, we propose a simple non-linear transformation of the cosine similarities, which conserves marginal coverage guarantees and achieves statistically significant mean set sizes reduction. Code is available at https://github.com/cfuchs2023/lcp-vlm/.
Diffusion models enable probabilistic super-resolution and conditional generation, but pixel-space methods are computationally expensive and learned latent spaces often lack interpretable uncertainty quantification. We introduce Patch-PODiff-ViT, a structured latent diffusion framework in which the latent space is defined by patchwise Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), a fixed linear orthonormal basis over local patches, rather than learned by a nonlinear autoencoder. This yields low-dimensional, variance-ordered tokens that preserve spatial structure and enable efficient diffusion in a structured low-dimensional latent space with a Vision Transformer. Because the decoder is fixed, linear, and orthonormal, latent coefficient uncertainty can be propagated directly to physical-space predictive variance, enabling analytic propagation of predictive variance through the linear decoder without Monte Carlo estimation in pixel space. Across sea surface temperature, medical imaging, and natural images, the method achieves strong reconstruction with fewer parameters and lower memory, while producing well-calibrated spatial uncertainty that closely matches empirical ensembles.
Multi-view surface reconstruction is a core problem in computer vision. One prominent line of work represents the surface implicitly as a signed distance field (SDF), optimizing it based on the photometric loss between rendered and observed pixel colors. These approaches typically employ SDF-based volume rendering to obtain a differentiable relaxation of discontinuous visibility along rays, thereby reducing reliance on silhouette supervision. In this paper, we reformulate SDF-based volume rendering as probabilistic surface rendering, where each pixel color is modeled as a mixture distribution induced by the random first ray-surface intersection. To this end, we introduce Stochastic Signed Distance Processes (SSDP), which model the SDF along each ray as a stochastic process, inducing a first-passage-time distribution for each ray. We then derive the first-passage probability for each sampling interval based on Bayesian filtering, together with its practical approximation for parallel rendering. We further show that NeuS, an existing SDF-based volume rendering method, arises as a special case of our formulation. Experiments on the DTU and MobileBrick datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines in both surface reconstruction and uncertainty quantification, supporting the effectiveness of our first-passage formulation. Our code is available at https://github.com/skmhrk1209/SSDP.
Dong Hyun Jeong, Feng Chen, Jin-Hee Cho +3cs.LG cs.AI
Understanding when and why deep neural networks are uncertain is crucial for deploying reliable machine learning systems in safety-critical domains. While existing uncertainty quantification methods provide scalar measures of model confidence, they offer limited insight into which spatial regions of an input contribute to different types of uncertainty. We propose a novel visualization framework, Uncertainty Activation Map (UAM), that combines Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) with Full-Gradient Class Activation Mapping (FullGrad) to generate interpretable spatial uncertainty activation maps. Our approach distinguishes between two fundamental types of uncertainty: vacuity, representing lack of evidence, and dissonance, capturing conflicting evidence between competing hypotheses. By leveraging the complete gradient decomposition property of FullGrad and the principled uncertainty quantification of Subjective Logic, our method produces theoretically grounded visualizations that highlight specific image regions responsible for model uncertainty. With this framework, vacuity and dissonance activation maps are generated by computing belief-weighted attributions, enabling identification of where models lack knowledge versus where they encounter ambiguous evidence. Extensive evaluations across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively addresses the critical gap between uncertainty quantification and explainability, providing intuitive visual feedback to assess model reliability in complex visual recognition tasks.
Steerable convolutional neural networks (Steerable-CNNs) guarantee SE(3)-equivariance by parameterizing kernels as linear combinations of steerable basis functions, but their deterministic nature precludes uncertainty quantification - limiting their use in settings where confidence estimates are essential. We propose a Bayesian Steerable-CNN that places posterior distributions over the basis coefficients, yielding stochastic kernels while preserving equivariance exactly. The loss function of the model is obtained via variational inference and minimized by Bayes-by-Backpropagation. The framework admits a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components. Empirically, the model attains competitive classification accuracy alongside an expected calibration error of 0.0263 and outperforms its deterministic counterpart by up to 6.17% under distributional shift induced by additive Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we leverage the model's uncertainty estimates to enhance its performance significantly, achieving a notable gain - approximately 4% higher accuracy across 84% of the test dataset. A statistically significant negative correlation between epistemic uncertainty and prediction error confirms that the learned posterior variance is semantically meaningful. The framework unifies Bayesian uncertainty quantification with the inductive bias of equivariant CNNs.
Ritesh Sharma, Mohammad Ghasemigol, Yuichi Motaics.CV
Deepfake detection systems achieve near-perfect accuracy on benchmarks, yet forensic deployment demands reliable prediction uncertainty. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods rely on single sources and ignore that optimal uncertainty composition varies across architectures. We propose Correlation-Optimized Fusion (COF), an architecture-adaptive framework that fuses five complementary uncertainty sources -- epistemic, aleatoric, calibration, conformal, and distributional -- by maximizing Pearson correlation between fused uncertainty scores and prediction errors via constrained optimization on the probability simplex. COF requires no model modifications and only 42 s of weight optimization, compared to 20--45 h for a 5-model Deep Ensemble. Evaluation across eleven architectures on FaceForensics++ reveals a fundamental trade-off: under matched train/evaluation protocol, non-linear methods achieve approximately 5--6% higher in-domain correlation than COF (mean r = 0.438), but this reverses under distribution shift. On CelebDF, COF outperforms Random Forest in 9/11 architectures with up to 7.3x higher correlation (MaxViT-B: r = 0.249 vs. 0.034); RF degrades 85% cross-domain to r = 0.071, whereas COF retains substantially more signal (74% drop to r = 0.116). Cross-dataset evaluation on CelebDF and DFDC reveals catastrophic generalization failure across all methods: in-domain correlations of 0.41--0.47 collapse to near-zero externally (mean degradation 90.7%), with seven of eleven architectures exhibiting uncertainty inversion. These results establish COF as a practical, interpretable framework for controlled-distribution deployment and identify domain-adaptive UQ as the central open challenge for forensic deployment.
Object detection is a safety-critical component of autonomous driving. It is essential to quantify the uncertainty in bounding-box predictions for safety assurance. Post hoc uncertainty quantification without retraining aligns with real-world deployment requirements; therefore, we employ the Laplace approximation. Because instance-level uncertainty is needed, linearized inference methods that require multiple backpropagations are not time-efficient, and sampling-based methods are not fully post hoc. We propose Monte-Carlo generalized linearized model (MC-GLM), which provides instance-level and approximately post hoc uncertainty quantification. The number of samples required in the Monte Carlo step is constant and independent of the number of output instances, so it can be parallelized. Experiments on the nuScenes dataset with the CenterPoint detector validate the effectiveness of our method, and the resulting uncertainties exhibit good quality.