Effective public event forecasting is essential for intelligent service systems, enabling proactive risk management, adaptive resource allocation, and timely decision-making. In many real-world scenarios, the evolution of public events is driven by dynamic interactions among participants. Motivated by this observation, this paper proposes auto-ibDLM, a network-driven deep learning framework that represents events as dynamic interaction networks and predicts public event evolution through participant growth forecasting. The proposed framework adopts a hybrid representation learning strategy that first represents network evolution using network science-informed structural metrics and subsequently transforms the resulting structural feature vectors into compact and robust latent representations through an auto-learning layer. A GRU-based temporal forecasting module is then employed to capture temporal dependencies and predict future participant growth. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world public event datasets and two publicly available dynamic network datasets demonstrate that auto-ibDLM consistently outperforms representative state-of-the-art methods in both forecasting accuracy and generalization capability, achieving over 97% accuracy in public event forecasting. Comprehensive experimental analyses further validate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid representation learning strategy and demonstrate its representation-level interpretability. These results indicate that auto-ibDLM provides an effective and practical solution for intelligent public event forecasting.
Xiangni Tian, Kaixian Yu, Runpeng Dai +2cs.LG stat.ML
Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) record how facts evolve over time, but forecasting future events on a TKG remains difficult for three reasons: (i) long-range temporal dependencies are hard to encode; (ii) events on different chains mutually excite or inhibit one another in ways that snapshot-level models cannot express; and (iii) inter-arrival times are heavy-tailed and statistically sparse, so deterministic time predictors are unreliable. We address these three issues with a single framework, the \textbf{Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process (GAttNHP)}, built around three matched components. First, a self-attention encoder casts each subject--relation chain as a continuous-time point process and captures the lingering excitation of distant history. Second, a semantic soft-grouping module turns globally learnable Hawkes priors into an analytical cross-attention mask, so chains share excitation patterns through their latent group memberships rather than through exhaustive pairwise computation. Third, a Non-Crossing Quantile (NCQ) regression head replaces mean-based time prediction, providing calibrated, monotonically ordered quantile estimates that remain stable under heavy-tailed inter-arrival distributions. On six benchmark TKG datasets, GAttNHP improves over state-of-the-art baselines on both entity prediction and time prediction, and ablations confirm that its largest gains arise on the long-tail event chains where existing models fail most severely.