Weak signals are early, low-visibility indicators that precede significant changes before those changes become established. Existing detection methods, based on keyword frequency, topic modeling, or untyped graph topology, fail to capture the semantic and relational structure through which such signals manifest. In this paper, we propose C-Unseen, a self-interpretable framework for weak signal detection in Dynamic Temporal Knowledge Graphs (DTKGs). We define a weak signal as a rare, semantically coherent subgraph that proliferates across consecutive TKG snapshots. The framework operates through two modules: a Rare Subgraphs Extractor, in which an LLM identifies subgraphs whose content is in tension with the dominant snapshot narrative via chain-of-thought reasoning, and a Weak Signal Alerter, in which the persistence of these rare subgraphs is tracked across time steps to isolate true weak signals. Experimental results demonstrate that C-Unseen outperforms keyword-, topic-, and graph-based baselines.
Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) extrapolation seeks to infer future facts from time-varying relational histories. Recent diffusion-based approaches improve uncertainty modeling through generative denoising, but their aggregated conditioning on subject histories may insufficiently distinguish query-specific evidence from non-salient historical facts, thereby diluting target-discriminative signals. To bridge this gap, we propose FreqDiff, a Frequency-aware Diffusion framework for TKG extrapolation. Specifically, FreqDiff formulates future object prediction as query-slot denoising and develops a dual-stream denoiser that integrates temporal dependency modeling with context-aware spectral calibration. The spectral branch synthesizes history-conditioned filters from learnable bases to adaptively re-calibrate denoising representations, while a frequency-domain regularizer is proposed to align the denoised target with the gold object in spectral space. Experiments on four public TKG benchmarks demonstrate that FreqDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance.
Jiaxin Pan, Mojtaba Nayyeri, Osama Mohammed +4cs.AI
Temporal knowledge graphs are central to many uses of the Semantic Web, but existing completion methods assume the entities, relation names, and timestamps to be reasoned about are already known at training time, restricting each model to a single graph and vocabulary. We propose FITTER, the first fully-inductive structural model for temporal knowledge graph link prediction that supports cross-domain transfer: the inference graph may contain entirely unseen entities, relation names, and timestamps drawn from a different domain. FITTER represents each predicate by its interaction patterns with others and time through encodings of relative rather than absolute ordering; message-passing fuses local and global temporal context to produce vocabulary-agnostic embeddings. We prove the temporal encoding is time-shift invariant and evaluate FITTER on cross-domain, cross-graph transfer over six temporal knowledge graph benchmarks of diverse domains, granularities, and time spans. FITTER consistently outperforms inductive baselines without retraining, indicating that vocabulary-agnostic structural learning is a viable foundation for inference over the heterogeneous knowledge graphs of the Semantic Web.
Continual temporal knowledge graph (TKG) reasoning aims to continuously incorporate newly emerging facts while preserving previously acquired knowledge. Replay-based continual learning has achieved promising performance by revisiting historical representations. However, existing methods primarily focus on what to replay, while largely overlooking how replayed representations should be integrated with current ones. Such direct integration often gives rise to two critical forms of representation conflict: \textit{norm domination} and \textit{semantic blurring}, ultimately degrading continual reasoning performance. To address these challenges, we propose MA-DAR (Manifold-Aligned Dynamic Adaptive Routing), a lightweight plug-and-play framework for replay representation fusion. MA-DAR first aligns replayed and current representations onto a shared manifold to alleviate distribution discrepancies. It then employs a dynamic gating mechanism to learn dimension-wise fusion weights, adaptively determining the contribution of replayed and current representations to the fused representation. Furthermore, a polarization regularizer encourages more decisive routing behaviors by discouraging ambiguous gating decisions, resulting in more stable and effective knowledge integration. Extensive experiments on four public continual TKG benchmarks demonstrate that MA-DAR consistently improves the performance of representative TKG encoders while remaining effective under different replay settings. Comprehensive ablation studies and visualization analyses further verify the effectiveness of manifold alignment and dynamic adaptive routing in mitigating representation conflicts and improving continual reasoning.
Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) reasoning under the extrapolation setting focuses on forecasting future time-stamped events (facts) from historical data in a temporal knowledge graph. Existing approaches, reinforcement learning (RL)-based multi-hop reasoning methods are prominent for TKG reasoning because they produce human-interpretable predictions via explicit multi-hop path tracing. However, during RL training, rewards are typically sparse, and exploration is highly inefficient due to the vast, time-evolving action space. These issues hinder efficient training and often limit overall performance. To address these challenges, we propose RAPTOR (Reachability-Aware Pretraining for Efficient Target-Oriented Path Exploration), a self-supervised pretraining method that injects a reachability-aware inductive bias to the agent. By learning to estimate the reachability of candidate actions to the target entity, RAPTOR reduces exploration over unpromising paths and provides a strong initialization for downstream RL fine-tuning. Experimental results on the ICEWS14, ICEWS05-15, and ICEWS18 datasets demonstrate that RAPTOR pretraining markedly improves the training efficiency and consistently outperforms conventional baselines, establishing it as an effective approach for enhancing RL-based multi-hop reasoning methods for TKG reasoning.
Xiangni Tian, Kaixian Yu, Runpeng Dai +2cs.LG stat.ML
Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) record how facts evolve over time, but forecasting future events on a TKG remains difficult for three reasons: (i) long-range temporal dependencies are hard to encode; (ii) events on different chains mutually excite or inhibit one another in ways that snapshot-level models cannot express; and (iii) inter-arrival times are heavy-tailed and statistically sparse, so deterministic time predictors are unreliable. We address these three issues with a single framework, the \textbf{Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process (GAttNHP)}, built around three matched components. First, a self-attention encoder casts each subject--relation chain as a continuous-time point process and captures the lingering excitation of distant history. Second, a semantic soft-grouping module turns globally learnable Hawkes priors into an analytical cross-attention mask, so chains share excitation patterns through their latent group memberships rather than through exhaustive pairwise computation. Third, a Non-Crossing Quantile (NCQ) regression head replaces mean-based time prediction, providing calibrated, monotonically ordered quantile estimates that remain stable under heavy-tailed inter-arrival distributions. On six benchmark TKG datasets, GAttNHP improves over state-of-the-art baselines on both entity prediction and time prediction, and ablations confirm that its largest gains arise on the long-tail event chains where existing models fail most severely.
Konrad Özdemir, Julia Gastinger, Lukas Kirchdorfer +1cs.LG
Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) represent evolving relational systems, whose underlying data-generating processes often change over time. Yet, TKG forecasting models are commonly evaluated only on empirical benchmark datasets that provide limited insight into the models' robustness to such distribution shifts. Recognising this issue, we study TKG forecasting under controlled shift environments using a synthetic TKG generator that encodes three temporal and structural properties -- recurrence, homophily, and periodicity -- as data-generating mechanisms. This allows us to evaluate seven forecasting architectures under stationary and shifting regimes. Our experiments suggest that robustness in TKG forecasting is highly signal-dependent. Recurrence-based and periodic regularities are largely recoverable under stationary conditions, and simple memory-based baselines can be competitive when recurrence dominates the data. However, structural breaks reveal limitations in model adaptivity, with shifts in latent entity-community structure posing the strongest challenge in our study. Overall, our findings improve the understanding of the capabilities and limitations of current TKG models confronted with temporal distribution shifts.
In recent years, with the emergence of Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs), research on learning entity and relation representations in TKGs has attracted increasing attention, giving rise to a large number of TKG embedding methods. TeRo is a simple and efficient temporal knowledge graph embedding approach. However, TeRo does not do well in modeling the mapping properties of various relations, such as one-to-many, many-to-one, and many-to-many. Meanwhile, it also has limitations in the expression of temporal information. To address these issues, we propose a novel TKG embedding method named TeRoR. This method divides the temporal evolution of entity embeddings, and conducts independent rotation transformations on head and tail entities in the complex vector space to strengthen temporal information modeling capacity. In terms of relational characteristics, we train a radius to constrain the rotated and translated head entities within a circular region centered on the tail entity, which effectively captures the diverse mapping properties of relations. Experimental results demonstrate that TeRoR achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art models on four distinct TKG datasets.