Bayesian uncertainty estimation improves clinical decision making in medical AI agents

Machine learning models for medical image analysis typically lack a reliable measure of confidence, limiting their use in ambiguous or atypical cases. Here we show that Monte Carlo dropout, applied to a multi-task chest-radiograph classifier (eight thoracic findings, 137,593 training images), provides an epistemic uncertainty signal that tracks generalisation across training-set scales and flags confident yet error-prone predictions. Adding this signal to the point prediction raised error-detection AUROC from 0.74 to 0.77 ($Δ$AUROC +0.023, 95% CI [+0.014, +0.033]). In a controlled 2x2 factorial experiment, a clinical-decision-support agent exploited this uncertainty only when it was delivered as a binary error-risk flag rather than as raw scores, cutting confident misdiagnoses on unreliable findings from 8.5% to 2.7%. Epistemic uncertainty estimation thus carries decision-relevant information beyond point predictions, but its value for downstream agents depends on how it is communicated.

Reconfigurable Radiology Labels Without Relabeling

Public chest-radiograph (CXR) datasets are typically released with small, fixed label schemas such as CheXpert-14. However, the underlying free-text reports describe far more findings -- and which findings matter depends on the task, site, and reader. We release a pipeline that converts free-text reports into multi-label matrices and then reconfigures the label schema through dictionary edits rather than new inference passes, i.e., without relabeling the corpus. After this one-time pass, reconfiguring MIMIC-CXR (223K reports) from cached annotations takes 196 seconds with no API cost, compared to \$6.6K for an equivalent relabeling pass with Claude Opus 4.7. Using a 58-label taxonomy, we show that 43\% of CXR studies contain at least one finding outside CheXpert-14. Image probes trained on these labels match CheXpert-14 probes on shared targets while also reaching 0.78 AUROC on expert-reviewed long-tail labels that CheXpert-14 cannot represent. These results suggest a different unit of work for radiology labeling: once reports are structured, the label schema becomes a configuration to edit, not a corpus to relabel.