PerturbPFN: Probing the Limits of Synthetic Priors in Drug Perturbation Modelling

Predicting cellular responses to unseen chemical perturbations is challenging due to unknown targets and mechanisms, high-dimensional expression responses, and limited experimental coverage of the large small-molecule design space. We propose PerturbPFN, a PFN-style amortized model for unknown-target perturbation prediction under a hierarchical synthetic structural prior. Instead of directly regressing high-dimensional expression responses, PerturbPFN infers a latent system graph, sparse atomic intervention targets, and intervention strengths, then propagates their effects through an SCM decoder. The model is trained entirely on prior-predictive synthetic episodes generated from biologically motivated graph and expression simulators, enabling structured in-context learning without test-time gradient updates. We evaluate PerturbPFN on both real single-cell perturbation data and synthetic benchmarks, covering effect prediction, target identification, and regulatory structure discovery. Our results show that PerturbPFN offers a complementary trade-off to specialized baselines, achieving competitive perturbation prediction with low inference cost while exposing interpretable intermediate estimates of targets, strengths, and system structure.

Modeling Cell-Cycle-Aware Single-Cell Drug Perturbation Responses

Single-cell drug perturbation models should capture transcriptional response magnitude and whether a treatment changes the proliferative state of the cell. This is difficult because cell-cycle variation is often treated as a nuisance factor, and benchmark processing rarely makes drug-induced phase changes a primary prediction target. We introduce scCycleMol, a cell-cycle-aware perturbation prediction framework built on a curated 24-hour SciPlex3 benchmark with standardized molecule identities, dose and cell-line metadata, modeled genes, and expression-derived cell-cycle supervision. scCycleMol derives cell-cycle supervision from the treated state and applies it to predicted treated expression without using phase as an input covariate. The model includes a learnable full-expression cell-cycle head with circular G1/S/G2M targets, and we evaluate readout-only supervision (with stop-gradient) versus closed-loop supervision (backpropagating through decoder, dose-response module, and drug representation). We also compare molecular representations and pretraining sources to isolate the effect of the cell-cycle objective. On a processed 24-hour SciPlex3 benchmark (635,541 cells, 186 perturbations, 188 compound embeddings, 3 cell lines, 4 doses plus DMSO, 5,080 genes), the best LINCS-pretrained circular variant reaches 0.9093 mean all-gene R-squared and 0.6843 mean DE-gene R-squared. Under matched preprocessing, closed-loop cell-cycle supervision improves phase accuracy by 0.54-0.62 points while keeping mean all-gene R-squared within 0.003 of matched chemCPA no-cell-cycle models; Tahoe-pretrained readout-only circular supervision achieves the strongest phase accuracy at 0.9609.