The rapid symptom change of Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) makes it critical to have time-sensitive prediction models. However, most current machine learning models studying AECOPD use clinical and laboratory data, which will inevitably cause latency. To ensure timely detection of AECOPD and minimize latency, this paper focuses on home monitoring scenarios where only respiratory data from daily-use ventilators is available. We introduce a Time-Aware transformer-based AECOPD prediction model, which generates meaningful patient representations using the Time-Aware transformer to capture the symptoms and their temporal progression in ventilator data. Our experimental results demonstrate that our Time-Aware transformer-based approach outperforms traditional methods in multiple classification tasks, highlighting its potential to enhance AECOPD prediction accuracy.
Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) can worsen rapidly, making timely prediction a clinical priority. Most existing machine learning approaches rely on episodically collected clinical variables, introducing delays that limit their practical utility in home monitoring settings. Home ventilators offer a lower-latency alternative, producing a near-continuous record of respiratory status during daily use. However existing ventilator-based approaches either compress the waveform into handcrafted features or focus primarily on binary risk classification, leaving the timing of an impending event unresolved. In this paper, we present a two-stage framework that operates directly on raw pressure and flow waveforms from the most recent seven days of home ventilator use. The first-stage classification model identifies patients at high risk of a severe exacerbation. The second-stage regression model then estimates how many days remain before the event occurs. Our experimental results demonstrate that the two-stage model outperforms traditional baseline models on both risk classification and time-to-event estimation, with our selected Stage 1 classifier achieving F1 = 0.91 and our Stage 2 regression model achieving RMSE = 1.00 days and R^2 = 0.76, giving clinicians both an early warning and actionable lead time before a severe exacerbation occurs.