Can Zero-Shot LLMs Predict Child Malnutrition? A Fairness and Temporal Robustness Study

Child malnutrition remains a major public health challenge in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in South Asia, where early identification of vulnerable children is critical for timely intervention and resource allocation. This study aims to evaluate the feasibility, fairness, and temporal robustness of using a pretrained large language model (LLM) in a zero-shot setting for child stunting prediction using population health survey data. Using Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) data collected between 2007 and 2022, we transformed maternal, child, healthcare, and household characteristics into semantically interpretable prompt-based representations and evaluated GPT-4o-mini for zero-shot stunting prediction, comparing its performance against a random forest baseline and assessing fairness across demographic and socioeconomic groups as well as temporal robustness across survey waves. The results demonstrate that zero-shot inference using GPT-4o-mini achieved comparable balanced accuracy to the supervised baseline while exhibiting substantially higher sensitivity for identifying stunting cases, relatively consistent performance across child sex groups, and stable predictive behaviour across BDHS waves; however, important fairness disparities were observed across residence and household wealth categories, highlighting the need for further investigation before deployment of foundation models in public health prediction settings.

Automated Multilabel Mpox Research Classification with Explainable Transformer Models

The Mpox outbreak remains a serious public health issue, with the WHO (World Health Organization) reporting increasing cases in some regions. Research on Mpox is vital for several reasons, including vaccine development, diagnostic improvement, viral evolution studies, and preventing future outbreaks. However, the large amount of research being published makes it difficult to organize and analyze information efficiently. This study focuses on using multilabel classification to categorize 14590 Mpox research articles into key topics such as outbreaks, vaccination, and epidemiology. Among the different AI models tested, BERT performed the best, achieving 97.05% accuracy, 97.67% micro F1 score, and 96.46% macro F1 score. To better understand how the model makes decisions, SHAP was used to analyze significant word features and patterns. The results show that BERT can help automate the classification of Mpox research, making it easier for researchers, policymakers, and healthcare workers to quickly find relevant information, saving time and improving public health efforts.

Unsupervised Consensus-Based Anomaly Detection for Spatiotemporal Malaria Incidence in Ghana

A consensus anomaly detection framework was applied to monthly malaria surveillance data from Ghana (2014-2023) to identify atypical transmission patterns. Anomalies were highly structured in space and time. Ashanti and Northern Regions accounted for most recurrent anomalies, with persistent hotspots at Tamale, Kumasi, and Accra. A key finding was the spatial distinction between anomaly burden (cumulative cases during anomalous periods) and anomaly frequency (persistence of unusual behaviour). Tamale had the highest burden during anomalies, whereas the highest anomaly rates clustered in Ashanti districts, showing that high-burden areas are not necessarily those with the most frequent anomalous transmission. Anomalous months formed a statistically distinct group, with much higher case counts (Cohen's $d = 3.252$) and large seasonal deviations ($d > 1.2$) compared with normal months. Malaria burden alone provides an incomplete picture of transmission dynamics. By distinguishing where malaria is most prevalent from where transmission behaves most unusually, this framework can strengthen surveillance, prioritise investigations, and support targeted control strategies.

Geographically Weighted Surrogate Models for Rapid Small-Area Chronic Disease Estimation

Small-area estimation (SAE) enables researchers and policymakers to identify spatial disparities in health outcomes, but survey-based SAE products carry an inherent lag. Gold-standard estimates such as CDC PLACES are released roughly two years after the underlying survey data are collected, limiting their use for time-sensitive decision-making. This study evaluates the potential for machine learning (ML) to serve as a surrogate, learning the relationship between frequently updated area-level predictors and existing SAE outputs to generate timely, comparable estimates in years when SAE from surveys are unavailable or delayed. We evaluate several global and geographically weighted ML models for county-level SAE of ten chronic conditions across the US: COPD, asthma, heart disease, arthritis, cancer, depression, diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and stroke. Our findings suggest that geographically weighted ML frameworks like geographically weighted random forest and geographically weighted regression offer scalable and open data surrogates for rapidly generating SAE and supporting data driven decision making.

Environmental Drivers of Respiratory Disease: A District Level Analysis

Sri Lanka has experienced a decade of progressive forest degradation and rising atmospheric pollution, yet district-level respiratory admissions have paradoxically declined, pointing to the confounding role of healthcare access. This study addresses that gap by constructing an 11-year (2014-2024) panel dataset across all 25 administrative districts, integrating satellite-derived vegetation indices, fire radiative power, pollutant concentrations (particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2)), carbon flux metrics and population-normalized respiratory admission rates. Two temporally validated XGBoost models were created for annual district-level respiratory rate (R^2 = 0.937) and monthly PM2.5 concentration (R^2 = 0.976) with generalization validated in 21 out of 25 districts (Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) <= 20%). Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis established that cumulative air quality burden is the overwhelming driver of respiratory rate variance (80.1%), ahead of forest degradation (15.6%) and fire activity (4.3%). The Forest-Air-Health (FAH) Risk Index used these SHAP-derived weights to find the districts with the highest risk: Colombo (FAH = 0.802), Gampaha (0.708), and Kalutara (0.682). These findings present the inaugural evidence-based, district-level framework correlating environmental degradation with respiratory health in Sri Lanka, establishing a quantitative basis for focused public health and environmental policy.

Designing Safety-Constrained LLM Systems for Public Health Information Access

We present the design and implementation of a safety constrained large language model (LLM) system for public health information access, focusing on maternal and child health (MCH) resource navigation. While LLM based systems offer flexible and natural interfaces for information retrieval, their deployment in healthcare contexts introduces risks related to safety, trust, and uncontrolled generation. This work explores practical design patterns for constraining LLM behavior in safety critical environments. We introduce a multi-layered architecture that integrates domain-restricted retrieval augmented generation (RAG), strict boundary enforcement to prevent medical advice, anonymous multiuser session management, and comprehensive audit logging for monitoring and compliance. A key aspect of the design is a controlled data pipeline that grounds all responses in curated public health resources, avoiding reliance on the model pretrained medical knowledge. We implement the system in a real world public health setting and conduct scenario-based validation across in scope, out of scope, and emergency queries. Results show consistent enforcement of safety constraints, reliable resource grounding, and stable system performance, with an average response time of 5.3 seconds. Beyond the specific application, we discuss design trade offs and lessons learned in balancing safety, usability, and system flexibility. Our findings provide practical guidance for deploying LLM based systems in healthcare and other domains where strict information boundaries and accountability are required.

Learning to model pediatric asthma exacerbation from multiple risk factors: a case study in coastal Virginia

Childhood asthma is a common illness exacerbated by air pollution as well as meteorological and neighborhood-level socioeconomic factors. Modeling asthma exacerbation (AE) in large spatiotemporal datasets requires disentangling impacts from multiple contributors. In this case study, we compared three techniques that balance predictive power with interpretability to predict AE in Hampton Roads, a coastal Virginia region comprising 7 cities and over 1.5 million people. After collating ambient air pollution measurements, weather data, and measures of neighborhood opportunity, we modeled zip code-level acute AE visits to a regional children's hospital and affiliated providers from 2018-2023. Generalized linear models (GLM) provided a baseline while neural networks (NN) served as a maximally predictive target. To bridge between statistical models and deep learning, we developed a framework based on sparse dictionary learning to identify and interpret parsimonious nonlinear interacting equations. After comparing each model's predictive performance, we estimated relative risks for AE due to input exposure variables and found consensus across frameworks. Our work links statistical and interpretable machine learning models to highlight possible synergistic interactions influencing AE, and may enable future studies to guide public health interventions in coastal Virginia.