Clinical decision-making often involves prioritizing ethical values, such as beneficence, non-maleficence, respecting a patient's autonomy, and justice. Recent work has begun to assess how large language models (LLMs) make such subjective, value-laden clinical judgments. However, evaluations of LLM decision-making in rare disease care contexts, where ethical tensions are ubiquitous and where scarce prior information likely impacts LLM behavior, are still lacking. Here, we present a benchmark of 208 clinically grounded rare disease vignettes, each of which presents genuine, high-stakes conflicts. When prompting 11 state-of-the-art LLMs to choose between clinically defensible yet ethically conflicting next steps embedded within these vignettes, we found that all evaluated models consistently prioritized justice over other core bioethical principles. Specifically, models overwhelmingly favor equal resource allocation over need-based considerations, indicating LLMs' limited responsiveness to differences in clinical severity or situational context. We also identify a strong authority-framing effect: models favor justice in committee-based contexts and shift toward beneficence and autonomy only when final decisions are framed as being made by clinicians or patients respectively. Our work suggests that institutional pressures surrounding rare disease resource utilization may be silently reflected in LLM-based decision support systems, with finer ethical considerations disregarded.
Given a patient's clinical findings, a diagnostic system ranks possible diseases and must decide when to endorse its first prediction or defer it for review. This decision is usually made by thresholding the top score. Selective prediction over ranked outputs begins with two checks. First, the ranker must produce enough correct top-ranked predictions to make the target feasible. Across 2,000 patient records stratified by disease prevalence, eight small open-weight LLMs achieve at most 4.6% Recall@1 on ultra-rare diseases. At 10% coverage, even a perfect confidence ranking of their existing predictions therefore cannot reach 50% selective accuracy. More accurate models pass the same check, showing that the limit is regime-specific. Second, the confidence signal must match the decision being made. For fixed-candidate rankers, the top-two margin cancels components shared across candidates. On phenotype-only Exomiser, it selects 10% of cases at 29.0% accuracy, compared with 13.3% overall, while the top score provides no reliable gate. Yet that cancellation can remove information needed to detect whether the candidate list contains an answer. SciFact retrieval and biomedical entity linking confirm this distinction. Finally, we prove that unlabelled scores alone cannot determine whether switching to the margin will help.