Designing for the Next Click: Bandits for Real-Time Page Layout

E-commerce platforms increasingly personalize user experiences through machine learning, yet page layout decisions remain dominated by static rules and manual curation. We present a scalable bandit-based system that optimizes product page layouts in real time while preserving human control over design intent. A contextual bandit model dynamically selects the most effective layout for each session using user, item, and category-level features. The system leverages a LinUCB-based policy to balance exploration and exploitation as it learns from live user interactions. The architecture is designed for seamless integration into large-scale web serving stacks, supporting low-latency inference and continuous model updates. The system was first tested on entry product pages. In online A/B deployments on a major retail platform, our approach achieved positive lifts in session-level performance metrics over a strong heuristic baseline. Our results demonstrate that contextual bandits can effectively optimize visual and structural aspects of product discovery for user engagement, providing a scalable path toward learning-to-design the web.

Content Exploration Beyond the Feed: Creator Supply and the Shared Corpus

Industrial recommenders give new content initial views through budgeted exploration, then use early performance to decide further delivery. On many short-video platforms, exploration is the primary way new videos reach viewers. Viewer-side tests measure consumption; the published budget objectives we review omit creator response. We analyze four experiments on a major short-video platform. An eight-month creator ablation finds production exploration raises videos posted per creator by 8.55% and creators posting at least once by 7.10% relative to a minimal floor. A budget-matched reallocation raises creator participation with no detectable short-run viewer-side change. A year-long viewer ablation finds 1.74% more video views but 2.13% less view time. A delivered view creates immediate feed value, can trigger organic take-up, and can induce creator supply. Take-up and supply replenish a shared corpus, creating two measurement limits. Viewer-side A/B tests cancel the corpus effect when both arms consume the same corpus. Giving each arm its own corpus avoids cancellation, but turnover still controls the horizon. If the corpus turns over at rate w per posting cycle, a t-cycle experiment expresses at most wt of the eventual corpus effect. More users reduce noise but do not speed turnover. Before the corpus path visibly bends, data cannot distinguish a modest fast effect from an arbitrarily large slow one, so a valid confidence interval may lack a finite upper endpoint. As predicted, the three-week co-diverted experiment cannot determine the sign of the eventual corpus effect. Within the window, it identifies the direct feed effect, and an exploratory cohort analysis detects organic lift after exploration ends. The experiments establish a positive creator response, measure the gross corpus flow visible within three weeks, and show the design and duration needed to identify total value.

Incremental Recommendation via Causal Models

Recommendation impressions are a finite resource, hence delivering a recommendation to a user who would discover the content organically yields no incremental value and displaces other recommendations that could. We address this by extending an existing production recommendation model to a causal architecture using holdback data that is already collected as part of routine experimentation infrastructure, requiring no new data collection. A central challenge is that attribution windows differ between treated and holdback observations: treated users are attributed a stream within a short direct-response window, while holdback users are attributed organic streams over a multi-day window. This mismatch makes naive treatment-effect subtraction invalid. We resolve this with a dual-threshold targeting policy that delivers a recommendation only when the probability of a treated stream is high and the probability of organic stream is low. In a production-scale A/B test on millions of Spotify users, this policy reduces recommendation impressions by 7% with no statistically significant reduction in overall recommended content consumption. We further show that joint training with holdback data improves calibration of the treated head relative to the production baseline, and argue this can be taken as evidence that causal models learn more generalisable representations than models trained on observational data alone.

From Prediction to Incrementality: Causal Optimization for Large-Scale Targeting and Recommendation

Large-scale targeting and recommendation systems are typically built around predictive scores fed into heuristic or local allocation. When the business goal is incremental impact, as in marketing campaigns, incentives, and notifications, this paradigm systematically misallocates resources toward users who would have acted anyway. We present a decision-centric framework that instead optimizes causal effects under global constraints, aligning three components under a single objective: a causal neural network with a Transformer backbone for individual treatment-effect estimation, a Bayesian neural-bandit layer for uncertainty-aware exploration, and a dual-based large-scale linear-programming layer for constrained allocation. The framework also supports sequential context and multi-outcome, attribute-conditioned scoring through a Transformer encoder and outcome embeddings. We evaluate it with offline simulations on a public bandit dataset, targeted architectural ablations, and an online A/B test on LinkedIn Feed marketing traffic. We also distill production lessons on causal training-data construction and cost and delivery control, which were critical to successful deployment. The end-to-end treatment policy delivered a statistically significant $+7.20\%$ lift in the primary long-term-value metric, demonstrating the feasibility of production-scale causal optimization under business constraints.

The Price of Isolation: Estimating the Ecosystem Cost of Symmetric Two-Sided A/B Testing

On two-sided content platforms, symmetric two-sided isolation (assigning matched fractions of creators and viewers to isolated treatment and control submarkets) is widely used for creator-side and cold-start experiments because it removes cross-arm marketplace interference. Isolation, however, thins each viewer's candidate catalog, and intuition suggests the resulting engagement cost should fade as the platform grows: a small fraction of a vast catalog is still vast. We show that, in an order-statistics model of engagement, whether this intuition holds depends on the upper tail of match quality. Extreme-value theory yields tail-class loss laws with a sharp dichotomy: for light or bounded tails the loss vanishes as the candidate pool grows, whereas under heavy tails it converges to a size-independent constant, so expanding the candidate pool, even by orders of magnitude, does not asymptotically eliminate the cost. Evidence from two production experiments on a platform with millions of active creators is consistent with this picture: a pure A/A traffic sweep reveals a measurable, depth-graded engagement cost; a one-sided catalog ablation independently shows that per-viewer thinning contributes to the loss; and a tail index calibrated on the small exploration pool predicts an effect consistent with the one observed in the far larger full-catalog ablation. Isolation thus carries a price that experimenters should budget for, like any other cost. We give practitioners a preflight procedure that estimates it before launch, sizes traffic accordingly, and recommends a fallback design when the predicted cost exceeds a chosen tolerance.

Advancing Relevance Measurement with Vision-Language Models for Web-Scale Search

Relevance evaluation plays a crucial role in personalized search systems, serving as a guardrail alongside user engagement metrics to ensure that search results align with user queries and intent. While human annotation is the traditional method for relevance evaluation, its high cost and long turnaround time limit its scalability. In this work, we present a VLM-based automated relevance evaluation pipeline deployed within Pinterest Search for online A/B experiments. We rigorously validate the alignment between VLM-generated judgments and human annotations, demonstrating that VLMs can provide reliable relevance measurement for experiments while greatly improving the evaluation efficiency. Leveraging VLM-based labeling further unlocks opportunities to expand the query set, optimize sampling design, and efficiently assess a wider range of search experiences at scale. This approach leads to higher-quality relevance metrics and significantly reduces the Minimum Detectable Effects (MDEs) in online experiment measurements.

Long-term User Engagement Optimization through Model-agnostic Downstream Rewards Learning

As recommender systems mature in the past few years, their optimization objectives have evolved from a primary focusing on short-term behavioral signals to a broader emphasis on long-term user engagement and retention. However, directly optimizing retention is difficult because return signals are sparse, delayed, and only partially attributable to earlier recommendations. Prior work has addressed this challenge with sequential modeling and reinforcement learning, but these approaches typically require task specific reward engineering, substantial computational overhead, and surface specific implementations that are difficult to generalize. In this paper, we present a unified, model-agnostic downstream reward framework for optimizing long-term user value in large-scale recommendation systems. First, we formulate the downstream reward learning problem and develop an offline screening framework to identify session level behaviors that are both observable early and predictive of future retention. We then propose several model-agnostic downstream rewards signals derived from observed user action patterns across multiple sources. We further discuss the engineering effort to productionize the proposed rewards derivations and challenges we faced when adding them to our ranking models. Online A/B experiments demonstrate consistent improvements in engagement and retention-related metrics, and the framework has been deployed across multiple Pinterest surfaces, including Homefeed, Related Pins, Search, and Notifications.

Proximity Features: Privacy-Compliant Cold-Start Personalization at Airbnb

Personalization in two-sided marketplaces relies heavily on user-level features, yet for platforms with infrequent, high-consideration purchases, a large fraction of users lack sufficient history for effective recommendation, spanning both paid and organic channels. At Airbnb, a substantial share of search requests comes from logged-out or first-time users, with this challenge especially pronounced on paid-channel landing pages, leaving traditional user-level features unavailable for a large fraction of traffic. Privacy regulations and increasing restrictions on third-party cookies further limit identifier-based tracking for non-essential use cases. This paper introduces Proximity Features, a privacy-compliant feature system that groups users by geographic proximity using geo-IP data and an adaptive clustering algorithm, producing aggregated user-level signals for groups of approximately 1,000 nearby users without requiring a persistent individual identifier at inference time. Privacy is preserved by design: the pipeline operates on consented, aggregated data only within consent-gated privacy controls. The system is deployed in production at Airbnb, serving multiple surfaces including marketing landing pages and destination recommendation, with engagement emails integration under way. Online A/B experiments demonstrate statistically significant lifts in bookings, with the largest gains observed among users with absent or stale history.

AgentX: Towards Agent-Driven Self-Iteration of Industrial Recommender Systems

Recommendation algorithm iteration is moving from an artisanal, engineer-bound process toward an industrialized research loop, but this transition remains blocked by a structural execution bottleneck: the idea-to-launch cycle still depends on human engineers to generate hypotheses, modify production code, launch A/B experiments, and attribute online results. Innovation therefore scales linearly with headcount rather than compounding with evidence, compute, and accumulated experimental knowledge. We present AgentX, a production-deployed multi-agent system that fundamentally restructures this production function. AgentX operates as a self-evolving development engine: it autonomously generates, implements, evaluates, and learns from recommendation experiments at a scale and pace that no manual workflow can sustain. The system orchestrates four tightly coupled stages in a closed loop. A Brainstorm Agent synthesizes evidence from historical experiments, system architecture, data analysis, and external research into ranked, executable proposals. A Developing Agent translates each proposal into production-ready code through repository-grounded generation and multi-dimensional reliability verification. An Evaluation Agent conducts safe online rollout with guardrail-vetoed A/B judgment, converting both successes and failures into structured knowledge assets. A Harness Evolution layer (SGPO) then distills execution trajectories into semantic-gradient updates that continuously sharpen the agents themselves -- making the system not merely automated, but self-improving.

Variance Reduction for Heavy-Tailed Monetization Metrics in Ranking Experiments via Post-Stratification

Online evaluation of ranking and retrieval systems often relies on downstream monetization metrics such as app revenue or creator earnings. These metrics are typically heavy-tailed, with a small fraction of users dominating both mean and variance, leading to low statistical power and unreliable conclusions in A/B experiments -- especially under limited traffic. We present a practical framework for variance reduction in online experiments by combining post-stratification with CUPED. Our approach leverages pre-experiment covariates to improve the sensitivity of monetization experiments without requiring additional traffic. Deployed at ShareChat across ranking-driven monetization experiments, the method substantially reduces variance and improves decision stability, achieving equivalent statistical confidence with ~45\% less traffic than standard metrics. We further discuss practical design choices, guardrails, and limitations, providing guidance on when post-stratification is appropriate for real-world information retrieval and Recommendation systems.