From Tokens to Watt-hours: Analytical Energy Estimation for LLM Inference on Modern GPUs

The operational energy consumption of large language model (LLM) inference is becoming an increasingly important component of the environmental footprint of deployed AI systems. However, direct measurement of inference energy often requires hardware telemetry, power instrumentation, or infrastructure-specific monitoring, limiting its applicability in comparative studies, early-stage system design, and sustainability reporting. This report presents an analytically structured, empirically calibrated, GPU-level methodology for estimating LLM inference energy on NVIDIA H100-class accelerators without direct runtime measurement. The proposed estimator combines parameter-scaled transformer FLOP accounting, calibrated memory-traffic factors, and hardware-specific energy coefficients for FP16/BF16 tensor-core computation and high-bandwidth-memory movement. It explicitly separates prompt prefill from autoregressive decoding, enabling energy estimates for input tokens, output tokens, and complete inference requests. The methodology further decomposes total energy into compute, parameter-access, key-value-cache write, and attention-read components, allowing the scaling behavior with model size, context length, and generated-token count to be analyzed. The resulting estimates are not intended to replace physical power measurements; rather, they provide transparent, reproducible, and assumption-explicit approximations suitable for model comparison, green-coding analysis, and design-time evaluation of LLM inference workloads.

Sobek: Streaming Equivariant Tensor Product Convolutions

Equivariant graph neural networks repeatedly apply edge-conditioned tensor-product convolutions over graph edges. Conventional implementations materialize edge-specific weights, messages, and adjoints, causing tensor-product workspace and memory traffic to grow rapidly with graph size and operator width. This limits feasible workloads and can prevent larger problems from fully utilizing the GPU. We show that these edge-sized intermediates are artifacts of the execution schedule, not requirements of the equivariant operator. By reassociating radial projection, spherical-harmonic coupling, and graph aggregation, edge-local products can be consumed directly into bounded receiver-side state. The resulting streaming formulation preserves fully connected multiplicity mixing and extends through forward, backward, and double backward. We implement this formulation in Sobek, a generated-CUDA backend, and evaluate it across edge-scaling regimes and varied feature structures. Across two operator families and all three differentiation orders, Sobek is faster in all 75 capacity-matched comparisons, with speedups ranging from $1.2\times$ to $49.7\times$, and reduces peak allocated memory by up to 99\%. It also executes workloads up to two orders of magnitude beyond OpenEquivariance's capacity while retaining near-peak throughput. These results show that edge-scaled tensor-product workspace is a property of the conventional schedule, not of equivariant convolution itself.

Load Testing for Machine Learning Model Serving Systems at Scale

Machine learning (ML) model serving has become a dominant consumer of GPU infrastructure, yet capacity planning in these systems remains largely ad hoc. Under-provisioning leads to service-level objective (SLO) violations and production incidents, while over-provisioning results in substantial resource waste. This paper presents \sys, an industrial load testing framework for ML serving systems that systematically estimates serving capacity through an adaptive, feedback-driven search strategy. The approach leverages real-time performance signals, incorporating dampening, spike tolerance, and convergence detection to efficiently identify maximum sustainable throughput under SLO constraints. We evaluate \sys through a longitudinal analysis of 14 industrial case studies spanning four ML architecture classes: recommendation, ranking, vision, and NLP. This study demonstrates that systematic load testing leads to substantial improvements in GPU resource efficiency and operational reliability. Prior to adopting \sys, a significant fraction of model launches were under-provisioned, resulting in recurring incidents; these issues were substantially reduced after deployment. Our results show that ML-specific design decisions are critical to accurate capacity estimation: workload calibration using recorded traffic reduces estimation error from approximately 30\% to 2--6\%, while proper warmup handling yields a 22.2\% improvement in accuracy. Further analysis reveals key factors influencing prediction error, including model size and co-location effects. This paper distills six lessons and derive architectural guidelines for ML load testing, offering actionable insights for building reliable and efficient ML serving systems.

Small Experiments, Cheaper Decisions: A Case Study in Staged Promotion for Micro-Pretraining

Short pretraining runs can reduce experimental cost, but they can also over-promote configurations that only look strong at tiny budgets. We study an auditable staged-promotion protocol for a fixed micro-pretraining runner on two heterogeneous host blocks: Windows A100 and Linux L40S. Starting from twelve prior-screened configurations, we use staged budgets of 2 minutes, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 60 minutes, and 12 hours, with frozen promotion rules before expensive continuations. The early screens are intentionally treated as unstable: the 5- and 10-minute rankings are host-sensitive, and the eventual 12-hour top-ranked condition is not the mean-best condition at the replicated 10-minute gate. Because seed ranges differ across stages, these changes are operational promotion evidence, not within-seed curves. A replicated 60-minute gate keeps the Staged Factorial Screening bridge reference in the promoted set, where it ranks first in all four 60-minute host-seed cells. In the final 12-hour confirmation package, the bridge condition ranks first in all four host-seed cells across two seeds; the greedy comparator does not meet the frozen 0.010 val_bpb near-equivalence rule; and the cheaper d8/ar48 (depth-8, aspect-48) sentinel does not meet the frozen 0.020 mean-gap rule. The executed 12-hour branch spends 144 GPU-hours, and the full staged protocol records 169.2 training GPU-hours including screening stages. Continuing all four 60-minute candidates would spend 192 GPU-hours, while continuing all nine replicated 10-minute candidates would spend 432 GPU-hours. The latter numbers are accounting counterfactuals for unrun continuations, not evidence that skipped candidates could not have overtaken the reference. The result is a bounded cost-allocation finding, not a claim of global optimality, capacity-normalized superiority, or superiority over adaptive hyperparameter optimization methods.

PlexRL: Cluster-Level Orchestration of Serviceized LLM Execution for RLVR

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has recently unlocked strong reasoning capabilities in large language models (LLMs), triggering rapid exploration of new algorithms and data. However, RLVR training is notoriously inefficient: long-tailed rollouts, tool-induced stalls, and asymmetric resource requirements between rollout and training introduce substantial idle time that cannot be eliminated by job-local optimizations such as synchronous pipelining, asynchronous rollout, or colocated execution. We argue that this inefficiency is structural. While idle gaps are unavoidable within individual RLVR jobs, they are largely anti-correlated across jobs and therefore exploitable at the cluster level. Leveraging this observation, we present PlexRL, a cluster-level runtime for multiplexing unified LLM services across RLVR jobs. By centrally managing model placement, state transitions, and function-level scheduling under strict affinity constraints, PlexRL time-slices LLM execution across jobs to fill otherwise idle periods without expensive model migration. Our implementation and evaluations demonstrate that PlexRL significantly improves effective cluster capacity and reduces user GPU hour cost by maximum 37.58% while preserving algorithmic flexibility and introducing minimal per-job overhead.

Instant GPU Efficiency Visibility at Fleet Scale

We present Overall FLOP Utilization (OFU), a hardware-level, precision-agnostic GPU efficiency metric for AI workloads on HPC systems, derived from two on-chip performance counters: Tensor Pipe Activity and SM clock frequency. OFU requires no application instrumentation and works across GPU generations and numeric precisions. We characterize five properties of the OFU approximation -- tile quantization, floating-point precision scaling, clock sampling noise, Tensor Core clock domains, and non-tensor undercounting -- through controlled GEMM experiments on H100 and GB200 across FP16, TF32, FP8, and NVFP4. After tile-quantization correction, OFU predicts application-level MFU to within <=2 percentage points. Against 608 production training jobs, OFU achieves r = 0.78 correlation with application-level MFU and surfaces two framework-level FLOPs miscalculations. Deployed across large-scale GPU fleets, OFU has detected a 2.5x efficiency regression and tracked precision-dependent utilization changes in mixed-precision pretraining. Our evaluation and operational experience suggest OFU is a practical, deployment-ready complement to application-level MFU for continuous fleet-wide efficiency monitoring.