A Two-Stage Forecasting System for CPU Workload Prediction in Private Clouds

Accurate cloud resource forecasting is essential for proactive resource provisioning, maintaining Quality of Service (QoS), and reducing operational costs in dynamic cloud environments. The existing forecasting approaches predominantly estimate future CPU workload directly from historical resource traces, which often overlook the relationship between customer service demand and subsequent resource consumption. This study proposes a two-stage integrated forecasting model that explicitly models this dependency by first forecasting customer service requests, expressed as Transactions Per Second (TPS), and subsequently estimating future CPU workload from the TPS forecast. Both the forecasting component and resource prediction component employed the XGBoost model within a cascaded learning architecture, complemented by adaptive online retraining using an expanding-window strategy to address concept drift in continuously evolving cloud workloads. The proposed work was evaluated using real-world traces collected from a private cloud environment comprising ten applications. Experimental results demonstrate robust forecasting performance by achieving Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) below $7\%$ for most applications, with the best-performing application achieving an MAE of $0.7372$, RMSE of $1.1866$, SMAPE of $3.57\%$, and an R2 of $0.9185$. Horizon-wise drift analysis confirmed stable recursive forecasting behavior with controlled error accumulation across a 60-step prediction horizon. Compared with the conventional direct CPU forecasting method, the proposed two-stage integrated model gives improved forecasting robustness, computational efficiency, and interpretability, making it well-suited for proactive resource management and intelligent auto-scaling in cloud computing environments.

Optimizing Transformer Neural Network for Real-Time Outlier Detection on FPGAs

In this work, we explore how the inference time of a Transformer Neural Network can be efficiently optimized with applications to real-time anomaly detection in financial time series. The financial time series are price series such as asset prices. Unfortunately, the data is often with errors or outliers that make the downstream data processing tasks useless, unstable or even harmful. Moreover, the amount of financial time-series data has been significantly increasing. Hence, there is a need for better data-cleaning methods in terms of accuracy and in terms of processing speed. Transformers as a neural network architecture have achieved superior performances in many tasks such as Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision. Time series modelling and especially anomaly detection tasks can benefit from the features of transformers architecture in multiple ways, including the capacity to capture long-range dependencies and interactions. Increasingly powerful hardware, such as field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), have seen increasing usage in recent years due to their reconfigurability and high performance. They can be efficiently utilized to speed up the computations of the Transformer architecture. We explore different Transformer architectures for time series modelling and how they can be efficiently implemented on an FPGA board (PYNQ-Z2). In particular, we examine the application of Transformers to detect anomalies in time series and we show how they can be efficiently implemented on an FPGA board to minimize latency. The code is available at https://github.com/thxi/icl_thesis

Adaptive Two-Stage Online Learning for Service-Affecting Failure Detection in Mobile Core Networks

Mobile network operators monitor aggregated traffic volumes to assess the operational health of core network infrastructure. Reliable failure detection is challenging due to strong temporal structure, non-stationarity, measurement artefacts, and extreme class imbalance, which limit static threshold-based monitoring. This paper proposes a two-stage online learning framework for traffic-based failure detection in mobile core networks. Stage I incrementally models normal traffic dynamics using lightweight regression with time-aware features. Stage II analyses prediction residuals together with contextual indicators to detect genuine service-affecting network failures. The framework operates fully online under a prequential evaluation protocol, enabling continuous adaptation with low computational overhead. Across linear and non-linear models, the proposed two-stage architecture achieves the best precision-recall trade-off, attaining the highest recall, F1-score, and AUC at acceptable false positive rates. These results demonstrate the importance of explicit residual decomposition for reliable failure detection in streaming mobile core network data.

ClouDens: Operational Context-Aware Anomaly Detection for Large-scale Cloud System Monitoring

With the rapid growth of cloud computing infrastructures in scale and complexity, network monitoring for Large-scale Cloud Systems (LCSs) has become increasingly challenging, requiring automated and reliable anomaly detection to maintain service availability. Modern LCSs continuously generate telemetry logs from distributed cloud services, producing high-dimensional multivariate time series that capture system operations. Detecting anomalies in this context is difficult due to extreme dimensionality, complex dependencies among distributed components, and severe sparsity from intermittently active services. Taking these challenges into account, we first conduct an empirical study on telemetry logs from the IBM Cloud Console platform, and then propose ClouDens, an anomaly detection framework tailored to LCS monitoring that leverages operational-context attributes encoded in the telemetry log schema to improve detection accuracy and early identification of anomalies. ClouDens partitions high-dimensional telemetry logs into domain-guided subsets, constructs a context-aware graph modeling operational service dependencies, and employs Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for forecasting-based anomaly detection. We evaluate ClouDens on the recently released IBM Cloud Telemetry Dataset and provide practical insights into designing reliable anomaly detection solutions for LCS monitoring. Results show ClouDens achieves higher NAB scores in count-based telemetry features, indicating more accurate, earlier anomaly detection with broader coverage than a GRU-based model. Our study further reveals that telemetry feature subsets, operational-context modeling, scoring strategies, and sparsity imputation all substantially influence detection performance, offering practical guidance for designing and fairly benchmarking anomaly detection approaches for LCS monitoring.

Lightweight Multi-Scale Anomaly Detection for Resource-Constrained Edge Devices

Time-series anomaly detection is increasingly important in IoT systems, sensor networks, and edge monitoring applications, where models must operate under strict constraints on memory, latency, and power consumption. While recent deep-learning approaches have improved detection accuracy, many remain computationally expensive and often fail to capture subtle anomalies due to limited multi-scale sensitivity. Autoencoders are widely used for anomaly detection because they reconstruct normal patterns well, leading to elevated reconstruction errors for anomalous inputs. Their simplicity and efficiency also make them suitable lightweight backbones for handling multi-scale inputs. To address these challenges, we propose a Lightweight MultiScale AutoEncoder (LMSAE) network for univariate time-series anomaly detection, designed to be compact and computationally efficient. LMSAE leverages the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to extract multi-scale features and employs a multi-scale loss function to improve sensitivity to subtle or hidden anomalies. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate competitive or superior detection performance despite using significantly fewer parameters and a model size of less than 500 KB. LMSAE also achieves low-latency, low-power inference on the NVIDIA Jetson Nano, with 9x reduction in inference latency and 2x reduction in power consumption, making it ideal for edge deployment.

Federated Low-Rank Koopman Learning for Multivariate Time-Series Anomaly Detection in IoT Systems

Distributed IoT systems generate multivariate time-series streams for monitoring physical assets, servers, and embedded sensing platforms. Detecting abnormal temporal behavior is critical for fault diagnosis, predictive maintenance, and security. However, practical IoT anomaly detection is hindered by decentralized and non-IID data, limited bandwidth, and the constrained computation and memory of edge devices. This paper proposes FedKAD, a resource-efficient federated Koopman anomaly detection framework for distributed IoT multivariate time series. Unlike deep-learning-based anomaly detectors that require training and communicating large neural models, FedKAD learns normal temporal dynamics through lightweight sliding-window Koopman representations. Federated training is formulated as a low-rank consensus problem, where raw sensor streams and local reduced dynamics remain on device while only compact subspace variables are exchanged with the server. To optimize the shared representation under orthonormality constraints, we develop a federated Stiefel-ADMM algorithm and provide convergence and stationarity analysis under partial client participation. During inference, each client detects anomalies locally by measuring the prediction residual between observed future trajectories and the learned Koopman dynamics. Experiments on four widely used multivariate time-series anomaly detection benchmarks show that FedKAD maintains or improves detection performance compared with federated deep-learning baselines. More importantly for IoT deployment, FedKAD provides up to $2.1\times10^3$ faster training, $80\times$ lower communication, and $79\times$ lower inference latency than neural baselines, confirming its suitability for resource-constrained edge devices.