An Informativeness-based Clustered Federated Learning Method for Reliable Traffic Prediction in Managed Wi-Fi Networks

Centrally-managed Wi-Fi solutions are increasingly leveraging Distributed Artificial Intelligence (AI) to predict key operational statistics of Access Points (APs) and proactively optimize network performance. In this context, Clustered Federated Learning (CFL) represents a fitting methodology, enabling the generation of multiple AI models that account for diverse statistical properties of the APs data distribution. However, identifying informative clusters for grouping APs models remains a significant challenge. In this paper, we address this problem by proposing a novel CFL tool integrating a two step clustering procedure. Initially, multiple clustering solutions are generated and filtered based on a minimum set of desired clustering criteria. Subsequently, if no solutions meet sufficient quality metrics, a global model is produced by aggregating all AP models. Otherwise, the final clustering solution is selected as the one that maximizes the informativeness (quantified via differential entropy) for the smallest cluster. Our results, focusing on a Wi-Fi traffic prediction problem, demonstrate that the developed CFL tool achieves the best predictive performance among all evaluated distributed strategies and the lowest communication and energy footprint among the clustered ones, exceeding the cost of single-model FL only in the regimes where it markedly improves accuracy.

MoE Enhanced Federated Learning for Spatiotemporal Prediction

Traffic prediction is fundamental to intelligent transportation systems and urban computing, yet many cities continue to suffer from traffic data scarcity due to limited sensor deployment and uneven urban development. Cross-city knowledge transfer has thus attracted increasing attention, enabling data-rich cities to assist data-scarce ones. However, centralized approaches raise privacy concerns, while existing federated methods struggle with pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity across cities. To address these challenges, we propose MoE-FedTP, a personalized federated cross-city spatiotemporal prediction framework based on lightweight Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) networks. MoE-FedTP first employs spatiotemporal neural networks to extract features from both source and target cities, then introduces a set of expert networks derived from different source cities through partial parameter sharing. A gating mechanism dynamically fuses the experts to capture diverse traffic dynamics, achieving fine-grained modeling of urban heterogeneity while preserving privacy. Experiments on four real-world traffic datasets show that MoE-FedTP consistently outperforms state-of-the-art cross-city and federated learning baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing prediction accuracy for data-scarce cities.