Reliability Scaling Laws for Quantized Large Language Models

Quantization is a powerful strategy to build capable and resource-efficient large language models (LLMs) by reducing the bitwidth of the parameters. While quantized LLMs achieve state-of-the-art performance on unperturbed inputs using standard predictive metrics, their performance on perturbed inputs, measured using reliability metrics, remains underexplored, despite its importance for reliable deployment. To address this gap, we first conduct a comprehensive reliability evaluation of quantized LLMs consisting of three key components: (1) Uncertainty: We assess the trustworthiness of LLMs quantized to 2, 3, 4, and 8 bits using six different quantization methods, employing established uncertainty metrics. (2) Calibration: We assess how well-calibrated the uncertainty estimates of quantized models are across model scales and bit precisions. (3) Robustness: We design character-level and word-level input perturbations to evaluate the reliability of quantized models under semantically-preserving variations in the inputs that arise in real-world applications. Second, we characterize how reliability scales with the total number of model bits. Our study reveals that while the performance scales monotonically with the total number of bits, the reliability scalings are nonlinear. A reliability peak occurs for 4-bit quantized models, indicating that quantizing moderately sized models offers the best reliability-efficiency trade-off. Additionally, our empirical findings reveal that quantization enhances the robustness of LLMs to natural input perturbations.

Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End Co-Design of Neural Network Processors: From Training and Mapping to Fabrication

Designing a neural network processor is an end-to-end co-design problem: network architecture and training budget determine the inference workload; hardware mapping decisions determine chip area, latency, and energy; and these characteristics govern fabrication yield and manufacturing cost. In practice, these decisions are made in separate stages, and existing co-design methodologies are tightly coupled to specific algorithms, making it difficult to improve one component without reworking the entire pipeline. This paper presents a unified framework, grounded in monotone co-design theory, that composes four interoperable design blocks spanning network training, chip mapping, wafer-level fabrication, and compute resource allocation. Each block exposes only a functionality-resource interface to the rest of the system, so any block can be refined without structural changes elsewhere. A central contribution is the treatment of uncertainty: rather than collapsing stochastic outcomes into point estimates, the framework introduces Confidence, the inverse of success probability, as an explicit and optimizable resource alongside cost, time, and power. Three case studies validate the approach. The first recovers Pareto-optimal implementations across heterogeneous application scenarios. The second confirms that Confidence functions as a continuously tunable design knob rather than a post-hoc diagnostic. The third demonstrates that improving a single block's implementation set automatically propagates to the global Pareto front, without modifying the co-design diagram.