Vision-language systems combine images with retrieved text, but these sources can disagree or jointly fail to support an answer. Reliable models must identify the trustworthy source and abstain when neither is adequate. Existing post-training objectives score instances independently and therefore do not enforce coherent behavior under counterfactual evidence changes. We introduce CARGO-VL, a group-relative framework that optimizes matched variants covering aligned, image-correct, text-correct, and both-wrong (A/V/T/N) evidence states as one bundle. Its objective couples condition-wise correctness with transition rewards for answer invariance, source equivariance, and answer-to-abstention switching, while a primal-dual controller balances unsafe answers against excessive deferral. We also contribute XMC (eXtended Modal Conflict), a four-condition conflict training resource, and evaluate transfer on CMC-Bench and Modality-Bias. Across multiple seeds, CARGO-VL improves conflict handling, unsupported-answer avoidance, and modality balance over pointwise baselines. Ablations identify complementary benefits from relational transition signals and adaptive risk control, supporting counterfactual consistency as a practical objective for reliable multimodal evidence arbitration.
Multimodal intent recognition requires understanding not only what textual, acoustic, and visual signals share, but also how they disagree. Such disagreement is frequently class-informative; for example, lexical positivity accompanied by incongruent vocal or facial behavior may indicate sarcasm or taunting, yet most fusion methods either encourage modality alignment or treat inconsistency as uncertainty to be suppressed. We propose MACH (Modality Agreement- and Conflict-aware prototype Hypergraph), a hierarchical prototype-hypergraph framework that represents multimodal agreement and conflict as distinct, recurring relational structures. MACH progressively composes unimodal representations into bimodal and trimodal abstractions. At each applicable level, modality-composition anchors activate sparse agreement prototype hypergraphs that capture reusable consensus patterns, while a separate conflict pathway maps cross-modal discrepancies to dedicated conflict prototype hypergraphs. The two pathways are combined through a feature-wise, sample-adaptive arbitration mechanism, enabling the model to preserve informative disagreement while suppressing incidental modality noise. A progressive optimization strategy stabilizes the interdependent hierarchy before joint agreement-conflict learning. Experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed formulation, while component and robustness analyses validate the distinct roles of hierarchical composition, prototype-mediated semantic refinement, and agreement-conflict arbitration.