Aggregate scaling curves suggest that Video LLMs improve smoothly or saturate as visual budgets grow. We show that this view can conceal large, opposing changes at the item level. We represent each frozen model--item pair by its response trajectory under controlled visual budgets and derive matched-grid measures of configuration complementarity, harmful transitions, and text overwrite. Across five open Video LLMs from three architecture families, four multiple-choice benchmark splits, open-ended QA and summarization, and fixed-history dialogue generation, no single budget serves all items. On the four-model matched MCQA grid, item-level oracle headroom spans $8.8$--$18.9$ accuracy points and $12.5$--$25.5\%$ of items are correct at a lower budget but wrong at a higher one. Task-appropriate continuous metrics show the same complementarity beyond multiple choice: Token-F1 oracle gaps are $2.7$--$3.7$ score points on MLVU generation and $3.8$--$4.8$ points on AVSD current-turn generation, even when mean quality improves with budget. The effect persists across frame count, spatial resolution, sampling policy, temporal--spatial allocation, and independently executed raw-video and cached pipelines, with per-item rates and membership tracking protocol choices. A controlled sampling intervention recovers $29.0\%$ of terminal regressions, and a structured frame audit identifies several recurring evidence pathways. We release per-item trajectories, protocol provenance, derived annotations, and reproducible analysis code as an auditing artifact. A confidence cascade matches fixed-$128f$ accuracy while reducing average shared frame cost by $31.7\%$, illustrating one operational use of the response matrix.
Although large language models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable reasoning capabilities, their reliance on text-only pre-training restricts the perception of the multimodal physical world. Native multimodal pre-training avoids this limitation by training models from scratch on multimodal inputs, thereby achieving deep cross-modal integration and mitigating optimization asymmetries inherent to traditional late-fusion architectures. Despite these advantages, the scaling properties of this paradigm remain systematically uncharacterized. To address this gap, we investigate the optimal model size and token count for training a transformer-based vision-language model under a fixed computational budget. We demonstrate that minimal objective loss adheres to a predictable compute law, whereas compute-optimal model sizes and token counts scale as power laws. Notably, language and multimodal objectives manifest distinct scaling behaviors. The language allocation law is largely invariant to the composition of the data, indicating stable language learning regardless of the multimodal data ratio. Conversely, the multimodal allocation law is highly sensitive to this composition. Specifically, text-heavy mixtures become compute-efficient only at larger model scales, shifting the optimal resource allocation toward greater model capacity. Additionally, by modeling the influence of data composition on compute laws and allocation exponents, we derive an efficiency frontier specifying precise configurations of model size, token count, and data mixture. Downstream evaluations further reveal that native multimodal pre-training induces positive cross-modal transfer, thereby enhancing pure-text spatial reasoning and enabling robust multimodal in-context learning. In summary, this empirical research establishes the essential groundwork for predictably scaling multimodal foundation models.
In multimodal classification, late-fusion approaches classify concatenated modality-specific features extracted by unimodal neural networks. When modality imbalance is pronounced, various regularization techniques have been proposed to balance the learning process and overcome the inferior performance of late-fusion networks. In contrast, this work demonstrates that multimodal data can be effectively classified without any explicit modality fusion, using deep ensembles of unimodal networks. We systematically compare deep ensembles to late-fusion networks at equal parameter count and show that ensembles consistently outperform state-of-the-art late-fusion methods designed to address modality imbalance. This advantage also holds over intermediate-fusion techniques we evaluated and over hybrid methods that combine unimodal and multimodal predictions. We propose and empirically validate a method for selecting the number of models per modality in an ensemble, avoiding computationally expensive exhaustive search. Under extreme modality imbalance and small ensemble sizes, the heuristic indicates that ensembles of unimodal models trained solely on the stronger modality are preferable; as the ensemble scales up, incorporating models from the weaker modality becomes beneficial. Both predictions align with our empirical findings. To systematically explore the challenges of optimizing multimodal models, we propose a synthetic multimodal framework that allows control over both the number of modalities and their predictive strength; our findings are consistent across synthetic and real-world datasets. Finally, by fitting scaling laws to bimodal datasets, we estimate the asymptotic performance of ensembles.
Choosing the right large language model (LLM) backbone is the most consequential decision when building a vision-language model (VLM), yet it remains fundamentally unprincipled: compute-based scaling laws fail to generalize across model families, and no framework exists for directly predicting VLM performance before training begins. We propose the Capability-Driven Multimodal Scaling Law, the first cross-family framework that predicts VLM benchmark accuracy from directly observable textual capability. Given a low-dimensional capability score $S$ extracted from LLM textual benchmarks via PCA, we model VLM performance as a function of $S$, with a per-backbone transfer rate and an absorption rate that quantifies data-scaling efficiency. To fit and validate the framework, we train over 150 VLMs on 34 LLMs spanning 7 model families under a strictly controlled recipe. Evaluations on more than 200 textual and 50 multimodal benchmarks show that the law accurately extrapolates transfer rate from models up to 8B parameters to 72B-scale backbones, predicts full VLM training trajectories with high fidelity, and generalizes to entirely held-out model families. Beyond the scaling law, our analysis surfaces actionable insights: certain textual benchmarks negatively correlate with multimodal performance, exposing latent benchmark-gaming behavior; base LLMs outperform instruction-tuned counterparts as VLM backbones due to higher absorption rates and lower data-scaling decay; and different model families occupy distinct positions in the transfer--absorption space. The framework turns backbone selection from costly empirical sweeps into a principled, quantitative decision. Code and data are available at https://github.com/wangq-dev/CDMScaling.
Raw multimodal streams are abundant but noisy, redundant, and unaligned with any particular training objective. Turning them into supervision today means either brittle heuristics or repeatedly querying a proprietary vision-language model, a cost that recurs with every new sample. We ask whether this conversion can instead be learned once and reused, and formalise intent-conditioned Data Tailoring: given a raw stream and a high-level intent, a model must return schema-aligned, evidence-grounded training instances. Training DataClaw0 at 4B, 9B and 27B, we find that whether five heterogeneous domains should share one model depends on capacity. A jointly trained model is worse than per-domain experts at the two smaller scales and better at the largest, placing the crossover near 18B parameters. Matched-data comparisons, in which the joint model sees exactly the same data per domain as that domain's expert, attribute the reversal to cross-domain transfer rather than to data volume: it gains most where a domain is data-poor, and recovers 59\% of in-domain performance on domains withheld from training entirely. Downstream post-training reproduces this ordering on GUI navigation, action video generation and spatio-temporal VQA, and the joint configuration is also the cheaper to deploy, serving one model instead of five. Github: https://github.com/vancyland/DataClaw0