Quantifying Diversity of Thought: A Predictive Law of Weighted LLM Ensemble Lift

This paper provides an experimentally verified formal law for calculating the uplift that diversity of thought provides in Large Language Model (LLM) ensembles. From first principles, we derive an exact decomposition of LLM ensemble lift into rescue and damage masses, which yields a compact heuristic for calculating uplift. From this we extract the metrics which predict ensemble performance: an accuracy-adjusted correctness correlation, $φ_{\mathrm{adj}}$, together with the accuracy gap and collective accuracy of the pair. We test the law on 767,520 inferences from ten open-weight models over two graduate-level science benchmarks, together with a novel agentic cybersecurity benchmark in which each model conducts digital-forensics investigations by multi-turn tool use in a network-isolated sandbox (23,520 graded trials including abstentions); all votes are released openly. Calibrated once on SuperGPQA at a 40:60 vote split, the heuristic predicts lift on the calibration set with Spearman's $ρ=0.84$ and, with its coefficients frozen, transfers to two datasets never used in calibration ($ρ=0.51$ on GPQA Diamond and $0.84$ on the forensic tasks), whilst the measured swap mass tracks realised lift with $R^2\ge 0.96$ throughout. Raw $φ$ has almost no predictive power ($R^2\le 0.09$ throughout); the accuracy-adjusted $φ_{\mathrm{adj}}$ is markedly superior ($R^2=0.67$ on SuperGPQA), and the heuristic combining these metrics is the most stable pre-pooling predictor across the three datasets.

CLaC at SemEval-2026 Task 6: Response Clarity Detection in Political Discourse

In this paper, we present our system for SemEval-2026 Task 6 (CLARITY) on response clarity and evasion detection in question-answer pairs from U.S. presidential interviews, comparing fine-tuned encoders with prompt-based LLMs. Our LLM ensemble achieves 80 macro-F1 on the 3-class Task 1 (9th/41) and 59 on the 9-class Task 2 (3rd/33). Across 8 transformer encoders optimized through a four-stage pipeline, partial encoder layer unfreezing outperforms full fine-tuning by a wide margin. Combining English and multilingual encoders further improves ensemble performance over either family alone, despite multilingual models being individually weaker. Prompt-based LLMs, without any task-specific parameter updates, outperform fine-tuned encoders, particularly on minority classes; among open-weight LLMs, parameter count does not predict performance. Enriched input, concatenating the full interviewer turn, improves LLM performance but not that of encoders, an effect that persists with Longformer's extended context window, suggesting the divergence is not attributable to sequence-length capacity alone in our settings. The Clear Reply/Ambivalent boundary remains the dominant failure mode, mirroring the disagreement among human annotators. Our code, prompts, model configurations, and results are publicly available.