Chat models sometimes commit to an answer and then produce reasoning that justifies it rather than deriving it -- even when the answer contradicts a task premise. We study a minimal probe: "I want to wash my car. The car wash is 100 meters away. Should I walk or drive?" Only drive works (the car must be at the car wash), yet models overwhelmingly recommend walking. (1) Behavioral reproduction: on Qwen3-8B across five system-prompt conditions (210 rollouts), the wrong commitment occurs in 85-100% of sampled rollouts per condition and 100% of greedy rollouts, in both thinking and non-thinking modes; a 4,096-token thinking budget does not repair it. (2) Preliminary activation-level evidence: probing hidden states with a pretrained, training-free activation oracle (no task-specific probe training) at positions before the answer text is emitted, "walk" read-outs exceed a neutral-context baseline (68% vs. 17%; walk-committing rollouts p=.005, drive-committing rollouts p=.005, Fisher exact) -- notably, rollouts that eventually answer drive also read as walk-leaning before commitment (5/6). The oracle's default on unrelated content is "drive" (83%), so the read-outs are not lexical bias; stratifying by literal walk/drive occurrence shows they are not text recovery either (spans containing "drive" still read out walk; in balanced lexical fields, per-rollout walk-majorities beat a per-prompt neutral baseline 15/22 vs. 1/8, p=.01; drive-committing rollouts 6/6, p=.002). Samples are small and the within-rollout positional gradient is not significant (p=.34); we frame these results as preliminary. (3) Methodological: with fixed oracle, activations, and positions, question wording alone moves a positive control from 2/16 (open question) to 11/16 (closed); negative oracle results are uninterpretable without per-wording positive controls.
Interpretability methods for neural network activations span a wide cost spectrum, from cheap, training-free techniques (such as linear probes, PCA, SVD) to more expensive training-based ones (such as SAEs and activation oracles). Training-based methods are typically more powerful, in part because they leverage large activation datasets during training. This raises a natural question - do they actually surface insights that go beyond what is recoverable from the training dataset itself? To address this, we equip an LLM agent with a vector database of activations paired with their textual contexts, along with tools for manipulating activations - projecting out directions in latent space, computing activation differences and averages. The agent iteratively queries the database, forms hypotheses from the retrieved samples, and validates them by constructing linear probes. We call this method HARP, for Hypothesis-driven Agentic Retrieval and Probing. Despite not involving any training, HARP outperforms both activation oracles and SAE-based agents on concept discovery, concept detection, model steering, and secret elicitation. The training-free design also makes HARP substantially cheaper and more flexible: new datasets can be indexed on demand whenever existing ones prove insufficient. More broadly, our results suggest that current training-based methods do not yet extract insights beyond their training data, and motivate benchmarks that explicitly require interpretability methods to demonstrate such insights. We release our code at https://github.com/SriramB-98/HARP