Semantic Alignment of AI Models: Concept Collapse, Checkpoint Dynamics, and Cross-Lingual Transfer

Language model benchmarking is a difficult task. Outcome reasoning alone does not test the model's conceptualization of language and popular open-source benchmarks are quickly saturated or ingested as training data. It is important to test the model's output, but augmenting these tests by characterizing semantic structure gives more insight to how models relate abstract concepts. However, the high dimensional embedding spaces are not easy to interpret. This work demonstrates how topological methods can be used to rigorously compare these spaces to low dimensional and interpretable baselines like ontologies and curated knowledge graphs. These multi-modal alignment tests make it possible to track model adaptations and test phrase understanding across multiple languages.

The Capability Frontier: Benchmarks Miss 82% of Model Performance

Existing benchmarks typically report accuracy for a single model on a single run. This systematically understates real-world LLM capabilities, particularly under heterogeneous data distributions: (i) different models get different questions correct according to their specializations, and (ii) given a budget, multiple generations can be sampled and selectively retained. To quantify this gap, we introduce the Capability Frontier: a Pareto frontier over a set of models that characterizes the best achievable performance at each cost level under optimal selection across models and generations (i.e., via an oracle). Our construction corrects for two opposing biases: underestimation from single-model evaluation and overestimation from taking maxima over noisy samples. We study 21 LLMs across 16 widely used benchmarks spanning coding, reasoning, medicine, factuality, instruction following, and agentic tasks, comparing Capability Frontier performance at matched cost to each benchmark's top-performing model. Correcting for single-model evaluation yields a 54% error rate reduction; additionally correcting for single runs yields an 82% improvement, with SOTA accuracy matched at 85% cost reduction. Complementing these empirical results, we use controlled probabilistic simulations to show that higher query topic entropy produces a near-monotonic increase in the performance gap between oracle routing and the best single model. Our findings suggest collective LLM capabilities are substantially underestimated, with implications for evaluation and deployment in data-heterogeneous, multi-domain settings.

On the Stability of Prompt Ranking in Large Language Model Evaluation

Prompt-based interaction has become a dominant paradigm for using large language models (LLMs), where multiple candidate prompts are evaluated and the top-ranked one is selected for downstream use. This workflow implicitly assumes that prompt rankings are stable under minor variations in evaluation conditions. In this paper, we systematically study prompt ranking stability under common sources of variability, including random seeds and limited evaluation subsets. Across three open-weight LLMs and two benchmark tasks, we find that while overall rank correlations are often moderate to high, the identity of the top-performing prompt frequently changes, leading to unreliable selection decisions. To address this issue, we propose a simple stability-aware selection strategy based on a lower confidence bound, which accounts for both performance and variance. Our results show that this approach improves robustness in unstable settings while remaining competitive in more stable regimes. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for evaluation uncertainty in prompt selection and LLM benchmarking.

How Inference Compute Shapes Frontier LLM Evaluation

AI evaluations are shifting toward harder tasks that benefit from longer trajectories involving tool use and iterative problem solving. As a result, performance is increasingly sensitive to the amount and allocation of compute available at test time ("inference compute"). Yet many evaluations still report performance at a single restrictive budget, meaning that low scores may reflect the evaluation setup rather than the model's underlying capability. To test this, we evaluate up to 12 frontier language models on seven challenging benchmarks spanning software engineering, mathematics, medicine, and cybersecurity. We use a controlled setup combining three simple inference-scaling interventions: larger token budgets, context compaction, and repeated submission attempts, guided either by the model itself or by minimal correctness feedback. We find three main results. First, larger token budgets substantially improve performance on benchmarks across multiple domains, including cybersecurity, FrontierMath, Humanity's Last Exam, and TerminalBench. Second, fixed-budget evaluations can increasingly understate frontier capability as models advance. Newer models reach higher performance at large budgets, where they unlock harder tasks and solve them more reliably. Third, benchmarks differ in which inference-scaling methods help most: repeated submission broadly improves performance, but the value of larger token budgets, external feedback, and parallel attempts varies by benchmark. Overall, our results show that benchmark scores are protocol-dependent. We therefore argue that evaluations should report capability as a function of inference-time compute, specify protocol choices explicitly, and compare model generations over a large shared compute range at matched budgets, especially in safety- or policy-relevant settings.

Extending Item Response Theory for Efficient and Meaningful Multilingual Evaluation

Multilingual benchmarks are central to evaluating large language models (LLMs) across languages, but they suffer from three issues: exhaustive evaluation scales linearly with the number of languages, automatic translation introduces errors that are easily missed at scale, and some items conflate general and culture-specific knowledge. We address all three with a unified statistical framework, Multilingual-IRT, which extends Item Response Theory with per-language difficulty deviations, split discriminability separating content from language effects, and per-language ability residuals. Fitting Multilingual-IRT on 25 LLMs across 29 languages of MMLU-Pro-X, we show that its fitted parameters support three practical applications: predicting unobserved (item, LLM, language) instances with 11-16% lower binary cross-entropy than the strongest accuracy-based baseline, surfacing candidate translation errors distributed across all 28 non-English languages, whereas accuracy-based baselines concentrate detections in a few languages, and recovering culture-specific items that accuracy-based baselines miss.

Discourse-Role Labels as Presentation-Time Variables for Context Use in Language Models

Context-augmented language model systems often wrap supplied content with labels such as Reference:, Evidence:, Instruction:, Note:, or Example:, but the effect of these labels on reader-model behavior remains underexplored. We introduce a paired fixed-content probe over 500 MMLU-Pro items: each item receives the same misleading answer-bearing assertion under different discourse-role labels, and adoption is measured by whether the model outputs the injected wrong option. Across GPT-5.5, DeepSeek V4 Pro, Llama-3-8B-Instruct, and Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, Misleading Adoption Rate shifts by 56-84 percentage points. Binding or source-like labels such as Instruction: and Reference: produce high adoption, whereas Example: consistently suppresses it. Paired tests, bootstrap intervals, final-instruction ablations, and Qwen final-step log-probability probes support a label-conditioned candidate preference. Boundary probes show where the effect weakens or persists: arithmetic tasks reduce adoption, passage-shaped external context preserves smaller label gaps, short-answer evaluation rules out option-letter copying, and nested-label conflicts suggest that illustrative framing can delimit adoption scope. A 200-case single-author manual audit confirms that the short-answer contrasts are stable under conservative adjudication. The resulting claim is bounded but practical: context-utilization and reader-side RAG benchmarks should report and control wrapper labels, because presentation choices can change measured reliance on supplied context.

Optimization before Evaluation: Evaluation with Unoptimised Prompts Can be Misleading

Current Large Language Model (LLM) evaluation frameworks utilize the same static prompt template across all models under evaluation. This differs from the common industry practice of using prompt optimization (PO) techniques to optimize the prompt for each model to maximize application performance. In this paper, we investigate the effect of PO towards LLM evaluations. Our results on public academic and internal industry benchmarks show that PO greatly affects the final ranking of models. This highlights the importance of practitioners performing PO per model when conducting evaluations to choose the best model for a given task.

STELLAR-E: a Synthetic, Tailored, End-to-end LLM Application Rigorous Evaluator

The increasing reliance on Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse sectors highlights the need for robust domain-specific and language-specific evaluation datasets; however, the collection of such datasets is challenging due to privacy concerns, regulatory restrictions, and the time cost for manual creation. Existing automated benchmarking methods are often limited by relying on pre-existing data, poor scalability, single-domain focus, and lack of multilingual support. We present STELLAR-E - a fully automated system to generate high-quality synthetic datasets of custom size, using minimal human inputs without depending on existing datasets. The system is structured in two stages: (1) We modify the TGRT Self-Instruct framework to create a synthetic data engine that enables controllable, custom synthetic dataset generation, and (2) an evaluation pipeline incorporating statistical and LLM-based metrics to assess the applicability of the synthetic dataset for LLM-based application evaluations. The synthetic datasets reach an average difference of +5.7% in terms of LLM-as-a-judge scores against existing language-specific benchmarks, demonstrating comparable quality for comprehensive assessment of big and small LLMs. While real datasets remain slightly more challenging for LLMs especially for smaller models, this work establishes a scalable and domain-adaptable benchmarking framework that supports fair evaluation of LLM applications, offering a faster alternative to manual approaches and enabling high-efficiency automated quality assurance cycles.