How Do Language Models Choose Between Context and Memory?

When contextual information conflicts with the knowledge stored in model parameters, activation directions can be used to decode and steer which source the model follows. However, steering along a direction does not establish causality: whether the unedited model would naturally use that direction or whether the direction is reusable across tasks. We test these distinctions through counterfactual experiments in unambiguous settings. First, we estimate authority directions from agreement prompts, in which the context and parametric knowledge support the same answer. We then interchange naturally occurring coordinates along these directions between matched prompts that direct the model to prioritize either the supplied context or its parametric knowledge. Across Qwen, Llama, and OLMo models, this intervention reproduces 30-68% of the authority-induced shift in source choice, whereas matched controls reproduce almost none. To test cross-task reuse, we learn authority directions on two tasks separately and see that cross-task transferability closes only 9% of the authority gap while the local direction learned on the given task closes 57%. These results distinguish authority representation, causal use, and cross-task causal reuse, and suggest that authority computations may be task-dependent, rather than reusable across tasks.

When Errors Become Memories: Causal Pathway Tracing in Multi-Turn Memory-Augmented LLMs

Long-term memory enables large language models (LLMs) to preserve and reuse information across interactions, but it can also turn localized errors into persistent risks. Existing work mainly evaluates whether memory systems store and retrieve information correctly, leaving limited understanding of how errors propagate across responses, memory states, and future interactions. We propose a structural causal model (SCM)-based framework for cross-turn error propagation in memory-augmented LLMs. We model user questions, model responses, and memory states as a dynamic causal process, and identify two entry pathways: internal memory updating and external question feedback. By intervening on these pathways, we construct four counterfactual trajectories and quantify their downstream effects and interaction. Error influence is evaluated at four levels: memory retention, natural responses, targeted diagnostic probing, and probability-level error preference. Experiments show that error influence generally decays with interaction distance, while the memory-update pathway contributes more persistent effects than question feedback; latent errors may remain even after disappearing from natural responses. Propagation patterns also vary across memory categories and memory mechanisms. Pathway-guided restoration further validates this decomposition: Question Repair reduces residual error by 27.5%, Memory Repair by 70.2%, and Joint Repair by 98.3%, nearly eliminating residual propagation.

SCIT: Testing Causal Cache Carriers in Latent Chain-of-Thought Models

Latent chain-of-thought models move intermediate reasoning from emitted text into continuous states, improving compactness but hiding the causal object. We introduce SCIT, the Suffix Cache Interchange Test, a causal protocol that constructs exact source-recipient counterfactuals, patches declared cache segments, and identifies which transformer object carries the counterfactual computation. SCIT combines sufficiency tests with K/V component splits, hidden-state controls, semantic source controls, decoded validation, and matched corruption. On CODI-GPT2 and a Sim-CoT-style GPT-2 reproduction, counterfactual arithmetic transfers primarily through value-cache suffix trajectories rather than hidden states, keys, reusable answer slots, or single-token triggers. Complete sufficiency-and-necessity evidence for the late-value-suffix mechanism holds for the main CODI-GPT2 checkpoint; the Sim-CoT-style checkpoint shows the same sufficiency and decoded-control pattern but insufficient matched-corruption evidence for a necessity call. Beyond these local arithmetic cells, SCIT reveals carrier-regime shifts: arithmetic-like GPT-2/1B cells preserve latent-tail value/KV transfer, whereas competent 8B and repaired non-arithmetic cells route through prompt-prefix or full-cache K/V; boundary cells receive no mechanism call. SCIT therefore contributes a cache-level diagnostic, a checkpoint-specific GPT-2 arithmetic mechanism, and a competence-gated carrier map rather than a universal latent-tail claim.

Short Horizons and Sparse Concepts: a Mathematical View of the Readout in the J-lens

The Jacobian lens (J-lens) has been proposed as a way to read verbalizable representations from language models. However, its principle and meaning lack a detailed and theoretical discussion. We provide a mathematical view of this interpretation and of its assumed causal structure. Besides treating the J-lens as a heuristic probe, we further regard it as a first-order causal transfer operator from intermediate activations to expected future readouts. We study the Jacobian matrix as the optimal local linear approximation of the downstream mapping, analyze its global approximation behavior and bias, and identify its mathematical meaning as an expectation over anticipated future readouts. Further analysis of the Jacobian energy distribution reveals that its causal geometry is highly sparse. The energy decays with depth, concentrates in an extremely small proportion, and decomposes into diagonal pathways and specific critical positions. This decomposition further resolves the expectation of the J-lens over future outputs into short-horizon and sparse concept predictions, providing a more intuitive attribution and explanation for the ability of the J-lens to visualize concepts during the thinking process. Based on the theory, we propose a simple but effective improvement strategy and decoupling method for the J-lens, which significantly enhances the ability of the J-lens to read out correct intermediate concepts.

Does the LM Head Create a Harmful Gradient Bottleneck? A Causal Test

The language-model head maps a hidden state of width D to a vocabulary of size V, so its transpose can return at most D independent directions to the Transformer. Godey and Artzi argue that this severe projection is a harmful optimization bottleneck. We separate the geometry from the causal claim. Our backward-only intervention keeps the ordinary logits and the exact LM-head parameter update while reducing only the rank of the gradient sent into the Transformer. Across five paired seeds on byte-level and BPE-8192 WikiText-2 models, reducing backward rank increases validation loss. An equally ranked factorized forward head, however, increases loss substantially more. At half rank in the larger model, the backward-only loss increase is 0.0586 (95% CI [0.0167, 0.1005]), while the factorized forward head increases loss by 0.1795 ([0.1547, 0.2042]). The vocabulary-space residual also contributes to the ordinary LM-head update, and removing that contribution is harmful. Additional controls show that repeated-token failures are confounded by the number of independently sampled symbols, that adding never-target output classes does not impair learning, and that projection diagnostics do not reliably predict progress in our runs. Tested auxiliary feedback routes do not beat tuned backpropagation. These results confirm strong geometric compression but do not establish that it is a harmful optimization bottleneck.

Orientation, not magnitude: the causal structure of task-vector interference in merged language models

Model merging by task arithmetic works until it doesn't, and the field diagnoses why with magnitudes: layerwise representation bias, deviations from cross-task linearity, parameter overlap. Tracking the exact layerwise cross-term of merged LLMs through a factorial ledger and intervening on it directly, we find magnitude insufficient - and inconsistent across model families - as a diagnostic axis. An exact decomposition of the layerwise flux shows it is dominated by amplifying transport of the existing cross-term (~65-70% in both families, gain >1 per late block), and erasing the term is undone by propagation - rebuilt to 99% of its norm at cosine 0.99 - unless applied near the output; a basin test with six starting displacements establishes the carried direction as an attractor of the forward pass. That direction is causally load-bearing: erasure along it removes expressed interference dose-dependently and saturates at exact erasure, while norm-matched wrong-direction controls fail or backfire. Instruction wrappers gate the effect: the same erasure finds 13x less relative interference to remove under a wrapper that internally amplifies the cross-term, because the wrapper drowns the interaction in a template-pinned main effect rather than shrinking it - a structure that replicates across further instruction templates but not under a length-matched control. Magnitude, by contrast, is at best a coarse correlate, and the striking +-15% "universality" of naive bfloat16 generation turns out to be quantization roughness. Task pairs whose local cross-term generation differs by at most 1.9x differ by 14x-337x in causally removable interference. All 46 predictions were preregistered and frozen before their data; falsifications, including of our own headline expectations and of behavioral recovery under a validated continuous endpoint, are reported as such.

Decodable But Not Detachable: Training Data Granularity Determines Parametric Modularity in Large Language Models

Do large language models contain domain-specific parametric shells: concentrated, causally necessary neuron populations whose removal selectively degrades a target domain while sparing others? We apply a uniform causal methodology across two domain granularities, three model families (1.5B to 7B parameters), and eight domains. At the academic subject level, zero neurons exceed 60\% domain selectivity across 939,008 combined FFN neurons and causal damage matrices are flat, despite domain identity being linearly decodable above 85\% accuracy. At the language and modality level, 0.65--1.14\% of neurons exceed 60\% selectivity, damage matrices are near-perfectly diagonal (ratios up to 595:1), and shell neuron sets are essentially disjoint (IoU $< 0.003$). Masking code-selective neurons reduces mathematical reasoning accuracy by 16--24 percentage points across all models; masking Spanish or Chinese neurons leaves it at or below random. Shell strength increases monotonically with scale and shells are spatially interleaved in a pattern that precludes group-level selective quantization. Parametric shells form where and only where training data was modular at the token level.

Hidden APIs in Language Models: Discovering Reusable Causal Interfaces from Forked Futures

Identical language-model answers can arise from hidden states that support different future computations, so current-answer probes do not establish a reusable internal interface. We introduce forked futures: future operations are sampled only after a prefix state has formed, and states are compared through the response distributions induced by those operations. This yields an empirical causal quotient over hidden states without requiring researcher-specified latent labels. Shared, Local, Mixture, and Distributed interfaces then compete under prequential causal description length subject to future-signature fidelity and matched capacity constraints. In the two detailed model evaluations, Shared has the lowest held-out description length, with gains of 0.216 nats on Qwen2.5-1.5B and 0.294 nats on Llama-3-8B, while maintaining tightly clustered mean future-signature distortion; a five-backbone sweep preserves the positive direction of Sharedness Gain. The figure-aligned transplantation analysis gives Shared the strongest joint target-correctness, locality, copy-preservation, and composite profile, and API-aligned paths mediate 0.749 of the target effect versus 0.150 for matched null paths. In the blind four-class model-organism test, 14/16 architectures are recovered, with one observed non-Shared to Shared error among 12 non-Shared organisms. These results support an economical reusable causal interface within the tested operation banks, while keeping the claim explicitly conditional on the candidate architectures, interventions, and held-out futures.

The Weight of Silence: A Causal Case for Weights Over the Scratchpad in Latent Chess Reasoning

Latent, or silent, reasoning lets language models carry out intermediate computation in continuous vector space instead of words, and is widely assumed to function as an internal scratchpad the model actively consults during inference. Whether that assumption survives reinforcement learning has not been tested directly: existing causal analyses of latent reasoning are confined to math and logic tasks, and compare a model's reliance on its thoughts within a single checkpoint, never before and after an RL stage. We train a chess-playing model through a staged latent-reasoning curriculum followed by reinforcement learning, and find legality climbs monotonically to 61% (from a 48% pre-RL baseline) while checkmate confabulation is eliminated entirely. To locate this gain, we run a six-condition causal intervention suite on the same model before and after RL: substituting or adding matched noise to the latent thought vectors leaves performance unchanged, ablating them causes only mild degradation, and only exact-zero vectors cause collapse. This robustness gap is itself the finding: under exact-zero corruption, legality collapses to 1% pre-RL versus 9% post-RL, a gap that survives correction for testing across the full battery; milder conditions trend similarly without independently reaching significance. RL appears to add robustness to disruption, not reliance on thought content. These results push back against the field's default assumption that latent thoughts function as an actively consulted inference-time scratchpad, and instead indicate latent reasoning's principal effect here is shaping the model's parameters during training. We also demonstrate a working RL gain in chess, a domain outside the math and logic settings where multiple groups report the same latent-reasoning-plus-RL recipe failing to improve accuracy over SFT.

Are Single-Token Sparse Autoencoder Features Causally Necessary? Layer-Depth and SAE-Family Effects

Sparse autoencoder (SAE) features are used to interpret and steer large language models, yet nobody has tested whether a feature's causal role is stable across SAE families. Single-token features fire on one vocabulary item, so ground truth permits direct comparison. We analyze 3.9M features across six models and three SAE families and zero-ablate at full layer depth: they sit 4.7x tighter in decoder space and concentrate in early layers. Deleting one lowers the model's logit for that token in 178 of 208 layer conditions, significant after multiple-comparison correction. And depth decides how the damage lands: early-layer deletions disrupt the layers that follow, late-layer deletions change the output directly. Cross-family causal differences exceed within-family scale effects: on the same base model, GemmaScope and BatchTopK features are causally anchored, LlamaScope features locally redundant. Under LlamaScope the token returns to within 2x its pre-ablation rank 96-98% of the time. Changing only the activation function reverses the sign of that difference, so the training recipe is the remaining candidate: cross-family claims are sensitive to training methodology, not just activation function or scale.

A Validation-Gated Mechanistic Account of Suicidality Detection in LLMs

Large language models are increasingly proposed for mental-health applications such as detecting suicidal content, raising the question of what they rely on. We study this mechanistically and use it to ask a narrower question: how to make a causal claim about a model's internal features more trustworthy. Our validation-gated framework, with suicidality detection as a case study, interprets a behavior only after the model is shown to perform it: a concept is admitted only once the model ranks it above a simple lexical baseline, and each subsequent property is tested against a matched control. This discipline yields negative as well as positive results. The gate rules out one task at the outset: on DeepSuiMind (Li et al. 2025), Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct cannot separate implicit suicidal intent from ordinary distress, so we do not analyze it. We turn to binary suicide detection, which it does perform. There we find a mid-network feature that appears semantic rather than keyword-based, is causally implicated in the decision (ablating it degrades the judgment; a random direction does not), is low-rank, and recurs across three model families and three suicide datasets. A register-matched control (suicide versus depression) suggests it tracks suicidality more specifically than general distress. Steering raises the model's response, but for unrelated questions too, so we treat it as necessary but not sufficient. The clearest pattern separates encoding from use: smaller models already represent suicidality, yet only larger ones appear to act on it. The positive evidence is English Reddit text, which limits the clinical reading.

A Mechanistic Understanding of Pronoun Fidelity in LLMs

Faithful and robust pronoun use is important for fair and coherent generations, yet large language models largely fail when multiple referents use different pronouns. To study the interplay of reasoning, repetition, and bias in this task, prior work relies exclusively on behavioural approaches, which may not reflect a model's internal workings. Therefore, we provide a mechanistic, model-internal perspective on pronoun fidelity, testing whether three mechanisms -- group entity binding (G), recency bias (R), and stereotypical bias (S) -- are causally implemented across several SOTA language models. Using Boundless Distributed Alignment Search, we find all three coexist as causal subspaces distributed across network depth. No single mechanism fully explains model behaviour, but a combination of the three consistently accounts for 91-99.5%. An attention head analysis further reveals two competing copying routes; group binding and stereotype share a localized concept-level route that retrieves a bound occupation-pronoun unit, while recency uses a distributed token-level route that repeats surface forms. In sum, pronoun fidelity arises from competition between simultaneously active causal subspaces.

Observable Patterns Are Not Explanations: A Causal-Geometric Analysis of Latent Reasoning Models

Latent reasoning models (LRMs) replace explicit chain-of-thought with continuous thoughts. Recent work treats observable latent-state patterns, such as BFS-like frontiers and decodable arithmetic computation, as evidence for internal reasoning mechanisms. Evaluating two LRMs (Coconut and CODI) against controls lacking the proposed recurrence or curriculum, we find these patterns also appear in the controls and do not always causally affect behavior. Causal interventions reveal that latent-thought utilization is not binary but graded, scaling with a thought's causal effect on model behavior. Geometric analyses reveal this effect concentrates in low-rank directions whose step-to-step geometry grows more structured as their behavioral influence increases. Latent thoughts should therefore be treated as hidden computation, not hidden explanation: decodability, attention, or static structure alone cannot establish mechanism. LRM interpretability thus requires matched controls and causal tests.

Causally Evaluating the Learnability of Formal Language Tasks

Language models, as multi-task learners, acquire a wide range of abilities during training. A fundamental question is how much task-specific data is needed to learn a given task. Answering this for natural language is difficult: tasks are hard to delineate and can confound one another. To rigorously investigate the relationship between data frequency and learnability, we turn to a controlled setting using formal languages induced from probabilistic finite automata. These serve as a methodological testbed to demonstrate that standard correlational evaluation practices are inherently flawed. To enable causal analysis, we introduce the binning semiring, an algebraic object that lets us control how often a targeted property occurs in a sampled corpus. We formulate the experimental pipeline as a causal graphical model and derive decomposed Kullback-Leibler divergence metrics to measure the learnability of specific sub-tasks. Our experiments show that evaluating learnability without causal intervention leads to incorrect conclusions due to confounders in correlational analysis, and serve as a warning about correlational pitfalls in natural-language settings.

Causal Evidence of Stack Representations in Modeling Counter Languages Using Transformers

Formal languages have proven to be effective conduits to understand the inner mechanisms of transformers. Past work has shown that transformers trained on next token prediction over counter languages learn representations consistent with an underlying stack structure. Beyond representational analysis, this paper investigates the causal role of these representations. Linear probes are trained to predict the stack depth at each token from the model's hidden states, and a principal representation direction is extracted from the probe. Ablation of this direction from the model causes sequential accuracy to collapse to near 0%, providing strong empirical evidence that the stack representation is not just learned, but is causally necessary for model performance.

Multi-component Causal Tracing in Large Language Models

Causal tracing systematically intervenes on a large language model's (LLM's) internal representations to uncover and quantify the causal pathways linking specific inputs or computations to specific metrics of interest, quantifying the LLM's behavior. Building on previous single-component or single-layer studies, this paper presents a unified framework for causally tracing multiple components simultaneously. This framework systematically identifies the subsets of components (e.g., attention heads and multi-layer perceptron neurons) most critical to a desired target performance metric (e.g., accuracy and fairness). This is achieved by incorporating flexible interventions applied to a wide range of desired metrics. To address the combinatorial complexity of the multi-component problem, an efficient algorithm is designed that leverages soft interventions and a carefully designed metric transformation, converting the combinatorial search problem into a continuous one that can be solved efficiently under proper constraints, thereby generating proper binary decisions for selecting components. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method efficiently identifies subsets of the model's components that have a high impact on the target metric, outperforming existing baseline approaches. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZiruiYan/multi-component-causal-tracing.

Represented Is Not Computed: A Causal Test of Candidate Algorithmic Intermediates in a Transformer

Structured prompts require integrating components according to task-relevant relations. How a network implements this integration is often hard to judge in language or vision, where those relations are rarely specified precisely enough to define a candidate internal algorithm. Arithmetic offers a cleaner setting. We study a Transformer trained on base-digit extraction: given $N$, $B$, and $D$, it must report the coefficient of $B^D$ in the base-$B$ expansion of $N$. The closed-form solution, $\lfloor N/B^D \rfloor \bmod B$, provides explicit candidate algorithmic intermediates. Across three seeds, the model reaches 99.83% exact-answer accuracy on held-out number-base intersections, establishing reliable task competence. Linear probes decode the intermediates, making staged arithmetic computation plausible. Causal tests then separate representation from use: within the localized route from the stream with $D$ as input to the output positions, behavior depends on early $D$-selective communication, independent of $N$ and $B$. Relatedly, a sparse circuit search finds mostly separate $N$, $B$, and $D$ routes that combine late rather than the staged route suggested by the probes. Thus, the model represents the intermediates that make the closed-form solution plausible, but the identified localized causal route does not transmit them to the output stream. This case shows that probe-based conclusions can diverge sharply from causal observations, even when explicit algorithmic hypotheses are available.

From Correlation to Cause: A Five-Stage Methodology for Feature Analysis in Transformer Language Models

We propose a five-stage methodology for causal feature analysis in transformer language models (probe design, feature extraction, causal validation, robustness testing, and deployment integration) and demonstrate it end-to-end on GPT-2 small performing the Indirect Object Identification (IOI) task. Activation patching recovers the canonical IOI circuit (layer-9 head 9 alone gives recovery +1.02). A sparse autoencoder recovers per-name selective features with effect sizes of 30 to 50 activation units. Causal validation finds these features specifically but only partially causal: ablating fifteen of them leaves the model accurate on 98% of prompts. Two NLA-inspired evaluations strengthen this picture: the fifteen selective features explain only 31% of activation variance versus the SAE's 99.7%, and selectivity ratio anticorrelates with causal force (r = -0.56). Robustness testing under three distribution shifts finds that the circuit transfers cleanly but feature ablation effects degrade substantially, exposing a gap between detection robustness and causal robustness. A cost-based deployment evaluation (assumed $50/FN, $0.42/FP, 2% error rate) finds an optimal monitor configuration yielding $8.96 per 1000 queries against a $1000 baseline, a 99.1% saving. Optimal composition strategy varies with cost ratio and base rate. The conjunction of stages produces findings no single stage would.