Every memory-based knowledge editor in the SERAC lineage depends on a scope decision: given a query, does a stored edit apply? We report that current knowledge-editing benchmarks cannot measure this decision at all. Using INLAY, a gradient-free editor we built to obtain exact per-query ground truth (the model is frozen, edits live in an external addressable memory, and applying an edit is a bias added along one token's unembedding direction at decode time), we execute every candidate router action on 1,689 queries spanning three datasets and three input conditions. An oracle router choosing the best action every time ties a one-line static policy to four decimal places in all nine dataset-by-condition cells: the maximum attainable gain of any per-query routing method is 0.00 points. Abstention is the sole winning action zero times out of 1,689. The cause is structural: these are counterfactual benchmarks whose evaluation question asks for the post-edit answer, so answering from parametric knowledge is wrong by construction, and a benchmark without negatives cannot reward a classifier's ability to reject. This generalizes beyond our system to the whole scope-classifier family the benchmarks are used to evaluate. We confirm the mechanism directly: constructing the missing condition ourselves, by withholding a query's own edit from the index for half the sample, moves pooled headroom from exactly +0.0000 to +0.0420 and gives abstention its first wins. We also report where INLAY itself does not win (WISE beats it on Qwen2.5-7B CounterFact, and retrieval-augmented generation beats every method we tested, INLAY included, on rigorously matched RippleEdits), and disclose two bugs found during a self-audit of our own routing machinery, neither of which changed a published headline number outside noise.
Large language models (LLMs), and the agents built on top of them, are now benchmarked heavily on whether they can finish a task -- fix a bug, drive a browser, operate a GUI. A complementary social ability, namely how well a model understands and forecasts the way real social events unfold, has barely been measured. We introduce SocietyBench, an end-to-end benchmark that takes a one-line event topic, collects Web news and social-media posts across five platforms, distills them into a date-indexed timeline that keeps factual events and a public-opinion layer separate, and then turns every cutoff date on that timeline into an audited bank of forecasting questions. Questions are scored on two orthogonal 100-point axes: probability calibration and temporal accuracy. Before any model sees a timeline, a three-phase procedure replaces every named entity and shifts every date by a per-event constant, turning a real arc into a counterfactual social world -- structurally identical to what happened, but stripped of the surface labels a model could match against pre-training memory. On five heterogeneous events and 125 prediction points in Chinese and English editions, the strongest of six frontier LLMs reaches only 75.0 out of 100, against a trivial anchor of 50. The two axes come apart: a model can be calibration-strong but time-weak, or the reverse. Three agent frameworks built on a shared base model fail to improve on that base, and two model-free heuristics trail every LLM. Per-event gaps reach 21.4 points on a single axis, which is our main argument for evaluating on several events rather than one. All anonymized timelines, question banks, ground truth, and scoring code are released.
Sparse attention is widely deployed in long-context serving stacks, yet no framework audits how discarding blocks changes the influence of specific content on model output. We first establish that the phenomenon is real and causal: Block Sparse Flash Attention (BSFA) route replay across four architectures changes output decisions in 13 of 16 cells, with zero identity-replay label flips. We then introduce a dense-calibrated counterfactual audit using matched probe cards---Gold (carrying the correct answer label), Poison (carrying a target wrong label), and Benign (filler only)---under six-layout position symmetry, isolating the sparsification-specific effect. Two patterns compete. Signal concentration: the selector preserves Gold and Poison blocks far above filler-matched Benign blocks (G$\approx$P$\gg$B across all model--task pairs). Integration loss: discarding blocks severs cross-block attention---confirmed by an ablation where isolating the probe block collapses its influence from 4.48 logits to zero. Compression ratio governs the balance: a full sweep from mild ($c=0.25$) to aggressive ($c=0.75$) compression across four model--task pairs reveals that three of four cells move toward stronger sparse amplification at higher compression, with two exhibiting sign reversals. Three independent arms---BSFA route replay, controlled block-top-$k$, and KV-cache eviction---converge: sparsification changes content influence in ways aggregate accuracy cannot detect. We provide an open measurement framework deployable on any model exposing block identities.