Scaling inference-time computation has emerged as a reliable method to improve the performance of large language models on complex reasoning and programming tasks. However, standard approaches such as independent sampling and sequential multi-turn refinement operate without token-level credit assignment, resulting in computational inefficiency, since valid reasoning prefixes are frequently discarded. In this work, we introduce Test-Time Scaling via Error Localization (TTEL), an inference-time algorithm that utilizes fixed or environment feedback to perform token-level error localization. By comparing conditional probabilities under informed feedback against a null-context baseline, TTEL isolates the step at which an error occurred. The algorithm then truncates the trajectory and branches a new generation, maximally reusing the valid prefix. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that TTEL establishes strictly dominating Pareto frontiers across sequential reasoning domains, measured by pass-at-k vs. generated-token cost. With Qwen3-8B on LiveCodeBench, TTEL attains a pass@64 of 71.0% while generating approximately half as many tokens as independent sampling (360.4k vs. 735.0k). Generalizing to math benchmarks AIME-2025 and HMMT-2025, TTEL cleanly outperforms competing test-time baselines across both Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-4B-Thinking-2507.
Text-to-SQL systems are typically evaluated by query-level execution correctness, but this terminal signal provides little guidance about which intermediate SQL decision caused success or failure. Token-level dense supervision is also ill-suited: SQL tokens do not align with complete semantic decisions, can penalize execution-equivalent queries, and are difficult to label reliably at scale. We therefore propose CAPER, which automatically derives clause-level supervision via counterfactual intervention on the SQL abstract syntax tree, enabling root-cause error localization for reward modeling; the resulting data is used to train CAPER-9B, a lightweight Clause-PRM that provides clause-boundary feedback for policy optimization and candidate verification. Experiments on BIRD and Spider show that clause-aligned supervision not only improves execution accuracy, achieving up to a 15.3% relative EX improvement over GPT-5.4, but also strengthens failure-localization capability, reaching 84.53% accuracy and 90.60% MRR on held-out failures. Our project page is at https://github.com/banrichard/RL-NL2SQL.