Large language models (LLMs) are now regularly asked to forecast real-world events, but comparisons are often difficult because models receive different information, use different tools, and are evaluated under different rules. This paper reports the completed \emph{AI World Cup} benchmark, in which ten LLM-based assistants made a single pre-tournament forecast of the entire 2026 FIFA World Cup. Every submission used the same tournament snapshot, prompt, JSON schema, and scoring procedure. The forecasts covered group-stage scores, group rankings, the knockout bracket, final placings, confidence values, and short explanations. After all 104 matches had been played, GPT-5.5 Thinking finished first with 744 points, followed by GPT-5.5 with 717, Gemini with 699, and Qwen 3.7 with 687. GPT-5.5 Thinking was also the only model to select Spain, which defeated Argentina 1--0 in the final, as champion. The final ranking was driven mainly by knockout performance: total score was strongly correlated with knockout points ($r=0.986$), but showed little relationship with group-stage match points ($r=0.055$), group-standing points ($r=-0.103$), or their combined pre-knockout score ($r=-0.054$). Match-level accuracy produced a different ordering. Claude Sonnet 4.6 correctly predicted the largest number of group-stage outcomes (63.89\%) but placed sixth overall. Average self-reported confidence was also unrelated to either outcome accuracy ($r=-0.060$) or total score ($r=-0.067$). The results suggest that forecasting a complete tournament tests something different from predicting matches one at a time, while also showing how strongly a bracket-based leaderboard can depend on scoring design. The benchmark materials, raw responses, and scoring code are released to support replication and future extensions.
Public events on social media generate large volumes of discussion whose collective dynamics carry direct value for opinion forecasting and crisis response. Capturing how these dynamics evolve across an event's lifecycle requires organizing fragmented posts into event-level time series. Existing datasets cover only a small number of events within a single category, and typically discard the interaction structure between posts when constructing time series, which restricts both transfer across event types and controlled study of how interactions shape the resulting collective dynamics. We present SURGE, a multi-event social media benchmark that pairs event-level time series with aligned text and interaction structure linking posts within an event. SURGE is built through an automated pipeline that produces calendar-aligned time series at three temporal granularities, covering 67 events and more than 800K posts across five event categories. Each time bin is paired with flat and structured textual views derived from the same selected posts, enabling controlled evaluation of whether social interaction structure affects forecasting behavior. On top of SURGE we define benchmark protocols for numerical-only forecasting, text-augmented forecasting, high-interaction evaluation, and leave-one-category-out generalization. Experiments with representative time-series and multimodal forecasting models reveal three properties of the benchmark: a strong local-persistence regime in which naive baselines remain hard to beat under absolute error, limited transfer of existing text-augmented forecasters to event-driven social-media data, and increased difficulty on reply-dense periods that aggregate metrics tend to obscure. We further include a lightweight structure-aware probe as a reference implementation, illustrating how SURGE can support interaction-aware forecasting research.