Converting Expert Deliberation into Financial Signals Through A Context-Aware NLP Pipeline

We introduce the CDSP (context-conditional deliberation signal pipeline), converting an investment committee's meeting transcripts into structured predictive features. CDSP segments the meeting transcripts into topical chunks, assigns asset-class context labels using a large language model (LLM), maps financial keywords to a pre-determined taxonomy of labels, and constructs complementary features: sentiment polarity and mention frequency. This feature engineering framework is applied to a dataset spanning 48 monthly committee meetings to predict if global equities will perform better or worse than global bonds in the following month. In experiments with engineered features, raw transcript text, sentence embeddings, and combined representations, the prediction accuracy ranges from 62% to 73%, compared to always choosing stocks, which outperforms bonds 60.4% of the time. The best (73% accurate) model combines sentence embeddings with engineered CDSP features, achieving a 0.73 F1 score (although this is not statistically significant compared to always choosing stocks). Sentiment carries a stronger signal than mention frequency for several taxonomy categories. These findings suggest that experts' deliberations may contain forward-looking information that context-aware NLP can extract.

Detection of Self-Introductions in Legislative Testimony

Self-introductions are common in legislative committee testimonies. Successfully detecting them and extracting the speaker's name is enormously helpful in the task of speaker identification in the context of government meetings. In this paper, we present a pipeline for detection of self-introductions in legislative committee testimony using machine learning. We construct a training dataset from 1.54 million utterances spanning five state legislative sessions, apply a name-matching heuristic to generate automatic labels, and train three classifiers: a decision tree, random forest, and XGBoost to find self-introductions and extract the speaker's name. We construct a feature set combining bag-of-words, positional context, structural signals, introductory phrase indicators, and discourse context features. Among the three classifiers, XGBoost achieves the best performance with an F1 score of 0.9747 and the fewest total errors; adding fine-tuned BERT probability features improves this further. As an extension, we score the full candidate dataset with a fine-tuned BERT classifier and add BERT probability outputs as features. This BERT-augmented XGBoost model improves F1 from 0.9747 to 0.9782 and reduces total test errors from 241 to 207. The primary gain over the decision tree baseline (F1 0.9323) is driven by discourse context features and the boosting ensemble strategy; BERT provides a modest complementary signal. Analysis of false positives reveals that a minority are genuine self-introductions mislabeled due to name inconsistencies in the source data, indicating that measured metrics modestly understate true performance.