Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) models are typically trained on documents that describe facts from a prosecutorial perspective. Existing datasets further exhibit severe label imbalance toward guilty outcomes. Consequently, these models suffer from "Guilty Bias", blindly accepting the prosecution's narrative as objective truth. Previous studies employing three-step reasoning structures or training on synthetically generated innocence data improve overall accuracy, but they still fail to mitigate bias at inference time. In this paper, we introduce OBJECTION, an inference-time pipeline that integrates an Adversarial Lawyer Agent into each 3-step reasoning of offense, unlawfulness, and culpability. Unlike generic critics, our agent actively challenges the model's presumptions of guilt by injecting legal defense arguments at each reasoning stage. To thoroughly evaluate this, we present a new "Natural Innocent" dataset including 3.4k real-world cases, overcoming the limitations of synthetic innocence benchmarks. Test results show that OBJECTION drastically reduces the False Guilty Rate (FGR) from 82.93% (SOTA baseline) to 16.69%, proving its capability to perform substantive legal reasoning. This work denotes a key progress toward aligning Legal AI with the presumption of innocence.
Joe Watson, Joana Ribeiro de Faria, Marcus Tomalin +6cs.AI
Current Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) is constrained by its reliance on post-hoc judicial materials, increasing the likelihood that models perform retrospective classification rather than true forecasting. This paper empirically investigates shortcut learning in this context by studying claim-level outcome prediction in UK Employment Tribunal (UKET) decisions. Using a corpus of 33,158 individual claims, we predict outcomes from claim texts and LLM-extracted case summaries, evaluating models ranging from interpretable TF-IDF-based classifiers to black-box LLMs. While headline predictive performance figures appear strong, we demonstrate that such performance in LJP systems trained on post-hoc judicial text can be driven by the retrospective nature of the source material. Stratifying the test data by human judgments of leakage reveals that performance increases where outcome-revealing cues are embedded in the narrative. Moreover, a model trained on just the 4% of features identified as leakage achieves high performance, outperforming human experts. These findings substantiate concerns that LJP performance may be exaggerated by linguistic artefacts. Yet this vulnerability is not fatal to the research agenda. Instead, post-hoc judgments might be treated as potentially contaminated texts, requiring active auditing. Retraining models after masking leakage features results in only a negligible reduction in Macro-F1. Hence, while models will opportunistically exploit shortcuts when available, they remain capable of extracting useful predictive signals when these artefacts are removed.