Beyond Static Interpretability: Anticipating Post-SFT Mechanisms from Pre-SFT Parameters for Better Tuning

Mechanistic Localization bridges mechanistic interpretability and post-training optimization by isolating critical parameters via interpretative approaches and then guiding parameter-efficient Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) in a ``locating-then-tuning'' paradigm. However, due to the retrospective nature of mechanistic interpretability, directly interpreting pre-SFT models introduces misleading conclusions. Specifically for novel tasks, initially identified neurons differ drastically from those governing the final model, introducing biases that actively disrupt SFT. To address this, we propose a forward-looking localization framework that accurately estimates the post-SFT interpretability state using only pre-SFT parameters and the target dataset. Theoretically, we model SFT as a continuous parameter evolution, leveraging Taylor expansion to rigorously bridge the post-tuning mechanistic objective with the pre-SFT model's dynamic gradients. Practically, we design dual-granularity (neuron- and component-level) localization pipelines. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach not only provides superior SFT guidance but also exhibits robust performance and temporal scalability across increasing model sizes. This work transcends the fundamental limitation of traditional interpretability-its inability to identify task-critical mechanisms before they are trained-pioneering a predictive frontier that unites mechanistic interpretability with targeted optimization.

Located but Not Releasable: Silent Gate Inversion and Bounded Linear Release

A growing body of work reports that language models represent task-relevant latent structure that they fail to use. Whether such structure, once located, can be converted into behavior is a separate question that is rarely tested end to end. We submit the complete pipeline -- detect, localize, and release -- to a fully preregistered stress test on a 25.7M transformer trained on causal-evidence discrimination, where a known suppression phenomenon (latent causal structure present but behaviorally unused) has previously been documented. Every threshold, claim template, and decision-tree branch was hashed and archived before any corresponding data existed. Three findings. (i) Localization succeeds: interventions at observation-evidence channels of mid layers restore target behavior on otherwise-suppressed worlds (paired release advantages $0.563$ and $0.854$, 97.5% CIs excluding zero; best-site release rate $0.889$). (ii) Gating fails out of distribution: a detector calibrated to trigger on zero out-of-distribution calibration worlds triggers on 6.9-7.3% of held-out in-distribution generations and on zero of the 2,400 held-out generations that actually need it -- a complete inversion that silently reduces the gated pipeline to its base model. (iii) Linear release is capped: removing the gate and injecting a per-instance linear direction unconditionally yields a monotone dose-response that plateaus far below the preregistered release margin (intercept $0.382 \to 0.311 \to 0.264$ vs. threshold $\le 0.08$); per-instance adaptivity adds less than $\pm 0.03$. The failure is doubly located: the detector is OOD-inverted, and the entire family of linear release directions at this site and resolution is bounded away from sufficiency. The two failures are dissociable, and neither overturns localization. Every number traces to a hashed artifact in the released audit chain.