Reinforcement learning post-training drives reasoning and agentic capabilities in modern AI systems, yet a growing body of work shows that it is most effective when used to fine-tune an already capable base model. We question whether existing pipelines yield models that are most suitable for reinforcement learning. Building on prior work highlighting the role of coverage and pass@K as predictors of post-RL performance, we design a simple modification to supervised fine-tuning, TailSFT, which filters out already fit sequences during training, thereby focusing learning on under-modeled regions, or the tail, of the data distribution. We justify and validate the design choices in TailSFT, particularly the specific filtering criteria, through a combination of controlled experiments and theoretical analysis. On OLMo-3 7B, TailSFT often improves pass@16 performance on math and coding evaluations, with gains up to 17% absolute, while incurring minimal computational overhead. These higher-coverage checkpoints consistently translate to up to 4% absolute pass@1 gains in subsequent GRPO runs, demonstrating that TailSFT checkpoints serve as better initializations for RL. We further introduce a lightweight diagnostic for identifying settings where TailSFT is most likely to help. More broadly, our results motivate a principled, stage-aware approach to model development, in which intermediate checkpoints are judged by how effectively they support subsequent training.
When a language model trains on its own verified outputs, does it acquire capability beyond its base, or merely get better at expressing capability the base already had? We make the question decidable with a teacher-free "constellation" -- a generator, a learned critic, and a free exact verifier -- on a FlashFill-style "trapdoor" DSL, where verified (problem, solution) pairs are cheap to synthesize, hard to invert, and free to check exactly. Everything runs on one 4-bit Qwen3-4B on a single 24 GB GPU, with no model in the loop larger than the base. We report three findings. (i) Critic-guided selection beats verifier-filtered best-of-$k$ by $+9.1$ pp ($6/6$ seeds), with the entire gain localized to tasks where candidates disagree on held-out inputs. (ii) Per-round STaR self-training raises the ceiling but never accelerates -- the gain tracks remaining headroom and decelerates across $K=4$ independent training trajectories. (iii) The domain has no clean zero-capability frontier, so the usual "$0\% \to$ climb $=$ emergence" test is invalid here. A measured pass@$K$ crossover settles the diagnosis: the trained model wins at the operating budget (pass@$8$) but the base overtakes it at a large budget (pass@$64$) on every trajectory, so self-training concentrates probability mass rather than expanding reach. This is amplification, not compounding. ($K=4$ is indicative, not yet a robust across-trajectory CI.)