LLMs for Survey Text Analysis - A Performance Comparison Between Humans and GPT-5 on Inductive Content Analysis

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to support text analysis in qualitative research, yet evidence on their performance in inductive content analysis remains limited. This study compares human and LLM-based inductive coding of open-ended survey responses from 903 answers across six variables from a European PhD student survey. Five human coders performed inductive content analysis following a standardized coding scheme, while an LLM (GPT-5.4) conducted the same task using an established prompting procedure. Agreement between human and LLM outputs was assessed using the Adjusted Rand Index (ARI). Results showed an alignment between humans and the LLM, with ARI values of 0.61 for coding and 0.54 for theme generation. These values were close to the internal consistency of coding and theme results within humans (ARI = 0.68) and the LLM (ARI = 0.76). Agreement varied widely across variables, with low within-entity consistency consistently linked to low between-entity agreement, underscoring the role of data characteristics and individual performance in reliability. Overall, the findings suggest that LLMs can approximate human coding in this case-specific setting, particularly at the coding level, and may serve as a scalable support tool for inductive qualitative analysis.

LLM-Assisted Stance Detection in Scientific Discourse: A Test Case in Bayesian Cognitive Science

Qualitative coding is central to social science, but expert annotation is difficult to scale. LLMs offer a possible extension, yet require careful validation when the target construct is interpretive, theoretically loaded, and only indirectly expressed. We study this problem in a difficult case: detecting whether authors treat Bayesian models as descriptions of mental and neural mechanisms (realism) or as useful mathematical tools (instrumentalism). Our method combines a theory-driven codebook, expert-coded reference annotations, a diagnostic-gated prompt-optimization search yielding a shared zero-shot prompt for three frontier LLMs (GPT-5.1, Claude Sonnet 4.6, Gemini 3 Pro Preview), and multi-rater reliability analysis. The final prompt achieved a held-out combined reliability score of 0.76 (harmonic mean of ICC = 0.79 and $α$ = 0.74), with all diagnostics satisfied. Deployed on 6,858 quotes from 210 articles, the three LLMs reached substantial quote-level agreement (ICC = 0.80; $α$ = 0.76; combined = 0.78) and near-perfect article-level rank stability ($r$ = 0.96-0.97 across rater pairs). The corpus was predominantly weakly realist, but article-level stances were rarely uniform: only 1.4% of articles used a single band, while 59.5% spanned four or more. Low-level perception/motor articles scored 8.8 Realism points higher than high-level cognition articles ($p < .001$, $d = 0.60$), quantifying a long-held qualitative intuition. We present this as an expert-led case study; the framework is intended to generalize to similar theoretically demanding tasks, not to all qualitative analysis.