LLMs are increasingly used to analyze spreadsheets, CSV files, and other structured data, but producing a correct-looking answer is not the same as producing a trustworthy analysis. A trustworthy result should be supported by a valid path from the user question to the relevant data evidence. This requirement creates two diagnostic questions: whether an LLM can refuse to answer or ask for clarification when such a path does not exist, and whether it can preserve the correct analysis when the same evidence is expressed in different table forms. We introduce TrustDABench, a benchmark that operationalizes these questions as reliability and robustness. Starting from the evidence-path view, we derive 19 perturbation operators and instantiate them through an Agentic-LLM-based generation framework. TrustDABench contains 2,340 human-verified perturbed instances, and we evaluate eight representative LLMs. The results show substantial headroom: the best reliability result is only 24.21% average MRS, achieved by GPT-5.5, while the best robustness result still has 9.10% average ASR, achieved by Claude-Sonnet-5. The failures are systematic: models rarely detect conflicting evidence, often continue along executable but unsupported analysis paths, and remain sensitive to perturbations that change observation boundaries or cross-table relations. These findings suggest that stronger evidence-boundary recognition and representation-invariant reasoning are still needed for reliable structured-data analysis.
Aggregate reliability estimates can obscure heterogeneity in measurement-design burden across response conditions, so a single G- or D-study may mischaracterize a design's adequacy for particular strata. This study introduces a conditional generalizability framework with three components. First, automated scoring configurations -- the encoder architectures and scoring-head families admissible within a fixed pipeline -- are treated as a universe of admissible measurement conditions rather than incidental modeling choices. Second, analytical D-study projections are compared with empirical configuration sweeps over a finite scoring pool, yielding two estimands of design adequacy whose agreement or divergence diagnoses the realized configuration universe. Third, evidence is conditioned on entropy-defined response strata, treating entropy as an operational stratification variable, not a construct claim about writing quality. Whereas recent generalizability-theory extensions address AI-generated item variants on the response side, this framework addresses the analogous scoring-side problem: AI-mediated scoring configurations. Demonstrated with automated essay scoring of timed L2 writing, the realized design was dependable in aggregate (Phi approx 0.76). Re-estimated within entropy strata, dependability stayed high but declined modestly and robustly (Phi = 0.88, 0.87, 0.84) -- a gradient implying different decision-study requirements, the highest-entropy stratum requiring the most crossed conditions. The framework offers a portable workflow for evaluating nonuniform dependability.
An LLM-as-judge score can move even when the candidate responses stay fixed, simply because the evaluator has changed. We treat this evaluator-replacement ambiguity as a measurement-validity problem. Across four judgment datasets, we compare two upgrade paths available in practice: scaling Qwen3 dense judges from 1.7B to 32B parameters and moving across MiniMax M2-M2.7 released APIs. The main pattern is that judge upgrades are not interchangeable: only Qwen3 1.7B to 4B gives a robust adjacent gain, while MiniMax adjacent releases do not. Stronger judges reduce but do not remove position and verbosity bias. Repeated-sample juries add little when errors are correlated. Structured debate can move decisions substantially, but without parser and fallback logs those shifts cannot be attributed to deliberation. We argue that LLM-as-judge reports should include dataset slices, bias probes, error-dependence estimates, and protocol audit trails.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as critical decision-making components in high-stakes real-world AI systems, rendering LLM reliability a foremost practical concern. In this paper, we focus on enhancing LLM reliability through selective prediction (SP), a strategy that allows an LLM to only predict for inputs where it is likely to be correct (i.e., coverage) and hence reduce the error rate (i.e., risk) on that portion of inputs -- flagging the remaining inputs for future human discretion. In other words, SP improves LLM reliability by balancing the risk-coverage trade-off and enabling seamless human-AI collaboration. To integrate SP into LLMs, we focus on the LLM post-training alignment stage and propose to align LLMs with SP performance metrics, in contrast with existing LLM alignment methods that focus primarily on correctness or calibration metrics. Specifically, we propose a novel alignment framework, Reinforcement Learning for Selection Reward (RLSR), which targets the area under the risk-coverage curve (AURC) -- a popular SP performance metric -- as its alignment objective. RLSR achieves substantially better risk-coverage trade-off compared to multiple alignment baselines on both in-domain and out-of-domain tasks.
Data from affected populations are crucial for informing humanitarian response, but their value depends on timely and consistent interpretation of nuanced accounts of need. Humanitarian organizations often lack the staff, time, and specialist expertise required to analyze this information at scale. Large language models (LLMs) may expand this capacity, but their reliability for coding qualitative humanitarian data has not been directly established. This benchmark study compares 46 LLMs to a human Gold Standard using 150 high-fidelity synthetic humanitarian transcripts. Evaluation combined inter-rater reliability testing with Krippendorff's alpha, discrepancy analysis distinguishing correct, near-correct, and incorrect codes, and qualitative assessment across humanitarian-specific criteria including discrimination, complex needs hierarchies, and non-standard communication styles. The authors find that multiple LLMs can perform deductive coding at reliability levels comparable to experienced human coders, especially when structured prompts and reasoning-enabled configurations are used. At the same time, aggregate reliability metrics alone are insufficient for deployment decisions. Models varied in recognizing needs expressed indirectly, needs outside predefined categories, and protection-relevant concerns such as physical safety and discrimination. These findings suggest that LLMs can materially expand humanitarian analytical capacity, but not as substitutes for human judgment. Appropriate use requires structured codebooks, reasoning-enabled models, attention to theme-specific performance, and tiered oversight focused on categories where miscoding would have the greatest programmatic consequences. For sensitive humanitarian data, open-weights models deployed on self-hosted infrastructure may offer a viable path for combining analytical scalability with stronger data governance.
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being adopted in the legal domain. However, despite their strong performance, LLMs are prone to generating incorrect or hallucinated outputs, raising serious concerns about their reliability in high-stakes domains such as law. Detecting the correctness of responses of LLM-based systems is therefore a critical challenge. In this work, we explore the potential of leveraging internal artifacts of LLM to detect the correctness of their predictions in legal-domain classification tasks. We develop approaches that utilize features derived from these internal artifacts to build downstream classifiers capable of identifying incorrect LLM outputs. We evaluate our approach on two representative legal classification tasks: bail decision prediction and statute violation prediction. Our experimental results demonstrate that LLMs' internal artifacts are reliable indicators for detecting incorrect predictions in legal classification tasks, and can be applied to enhance the reliability of LLM-based classification systems.
Justin D. Norman, Michael U. Rivera, D. Alex Hughescs.CL
LLM-as-a-Judge has become the dominant evaluation paradigm for language models, but judge validation in practice relies on exact-match agreement, a metric that does not correct for chance and systematically overstates discriminative ability. We present the largest systematic evaluation of LLM-as-a-Judge to date: 21 judges from nine providers across MT-Bench, JudgeBench, and RewardBench, evaluated under three protocols (agreement, consistency, bias audit) over 118 runs and approximately 541,000 individual judgments. Four findings emerge, consistent across the full cohort, including the April 2026 frontier: kappa deflation between exact match and Cohen's kappa is universal (33--41 pp on MT-Bench), judge rankings shift by up to 14 positions across benchmarks, high test--retest reliability (>0.95) coexists with severe position bias (>0.10) in two production-deployed judges (instantiating a consistency--bias paradox), and verbosity bias is small (<0.011) across our cohort under a single pairwise rubric. We distill these into a Minimum Viable Validation Protocol.