The imperfective paradox provides a useful test of compositional semantic analysis. Recent work constructs an NLI benchmark and reports that models frequently infer completed telic events from progressive descriptions, attributing this behavior to a Teleological Bias. It further argues that prompting interventions cause a Calibration Crisis. We reexamine the benchmark and conclusions and show that it is substantially affected by conceptual and evaluation mis-specifications. We identify three conceptual mis-specifications. In particular, Aspectual Reduction affects the benchmark construction, analysis, experiments, and conclusions. Under a strict NLI standard, 76% of Group A instances do not explicitly rule out culmination. In our native-speaker annotation, 38% of Group A examples and 29% of the Group C examples were judged to permit an alternative interpretation. To control these issues and lexical variation, we construct Lexically Matched Minimal Pairs. At the evaluation level, we formulate event-semantic NLI as a Multi-step Reasoning Problem and assess both intermediate semantic decisions and final predictions. Our results show that models often do not affirm culmination but nevertheless accept the corresponding simple-past hypothesis, a pattern we characterize as Sufficiency Bias. We further show that prompting interventions produce a Decision Shift among labels without reliably improving the underlying semantic understanding and reasoning. Intermediate and oracle-guided analyses identify two additional failure modes: errors in compositional aspectual classification and Surface-form Attraction toward surface-associated answers. Our experiments on Qwen-7B with suitable prompts, GPT-5.4, and Qwen-72B provide initial evidence for the context sensitivity of aspectual classification and suggest that these models can achieve performance comparable to that of human annotators.
Human label variation in natural language inference is increasingly treated as signal rather than noise, but how much of it formal semantic structure explains has not been measured directly. We measure it on the 3,113 SNLI and MNLI items of ChaosNLI, using a rule-based operator and monotonicity tagger validated against MED (0.883 agreement at the edit site, 0.807 on the sentence-level summary our analyses consume), three preregistered analysis blocks, and full reporting of negative results. Three bounds emerge. First, a group-level boundary: hypotheses that are not purely upward monotone show reliably higher label entropy (Cliff's delta = -0.284), and rank-based tests defend the effect against operator-presence and length reductions, though a bounded-outcome sensitivity check weakens the regression form of the length defense. Second, an item-level ceiling: the same formal profiles explain only 3.3 to 3.6 percent of entropy variance and reach a median-split AUC of 0.606, too weak to identify high-disagreement items. Third, composition invariance: across the boundary, three high-powered preregistered contrasts on validated error shares and explanation-type shares (VariErr, LiTEx) all return null results. In this sample, formal semantic structure shifts how much annotators disagree by a small amount and does not detectably change what they disagree about. ChaosNLI-S/M consists of items selected for low original agreement, and every claim is conditioned on that scope. All analyses were preregistered in a version-controlled research log, whose audit trail, including one corrected interpretation rule, the paper discloses.