Compression progress is a long-standing proposal for intrinsic motivation: reward an agent when its world model becomes better at predicting or compressing experience. The folk claim is that this reward is "credible" because it is paid only for learning. We make this precise and prove it. If intrinsic reward is the signed decrease of a fixed sealed-audit loss, r_t = E(theta_{t-1}) - E(theta_t), then cumulative reward telescopes exactly to endpoint audit improvement, so no policy can push reward up indefinitely while true audit performance stagnates or degrades. For finite audit panels the same result holds with a sharp false-positive budget: cumulative empirical reward is at most true audit improvement plus 2 Delta_n(F, delta), the uniform audit deviation of the model class. This is horizon-free: adaptivity over time costs nothing once the sealed panel uniformly controls the class. The theorem also identifies the failure modes: the guarantee disappears if progress is clipped, scored on the agent's own stream, exposed to a high-capacity model on a reusable panel, or applied to a neural class that makes Delta_n vacuous. We give a Lean 4 mechanization of the structural core (telescoping, the finite-audit bound, finite Gibbs, and the entropy floor) and an experiment suite on ARC-TGI grid-transformation generators with adaptive holdout attacks. Experiments confirm the theory: finite-audit deviation scales as n^{-0.527}; signed progress resists clip-farming, stream leakage, and noisy-TV curiosity; naive reusable audits are exploitable by black-box scalar feedback, while standard release defenses keep the attack below the 2 Delta_n threshold. Signed compression progress on a sealed audit is an accounting signal of genuine improvement.
Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) improves reasoning even when the reward signal is spurious -- assigning credit to the group-plurality answer rather than a ground-truth verifier. Practitioners commonly interpret naive = acc(TRUE) - acc(RANDOM) as the reward-design effect. We prove this estimand is systematically biased: it conflates self-consistency elicitation (sharpening the policy toward its modal answer via majority pseudo-reward) with genuine reward-design signal. Using a controlled tabular-GRPO simulator we derive an exact telescoping decomposition total = null + elicit + rd and measure each term across five prior-strength levels. The reward-design fraction of the naive estimator ranges from 0.139 at weak prior (ps=0.20) to 0.05 at strong prior (ps=0.80), with the elicitation term flipping sign at the self-consistency crossover. A pre-registered 2x2x2 factorial confirms non-additivity (interaction ratio 0.385; AxC effect -0.089). A points-vs-bounds pilot gate shows strong-prior regimes are point-identified while near-crossover regimes are only bounded. Re-audits of two named published results yield ELICITATION DOMINATED (elicitation share 0.98) and REWARD DESIGN DOMINATED (rd share 1.18) verdicts respectively, demonstrating the diagnostic value of the partition. We pre-commit to submit regardless of flip outcome; a non-flip is a finding of equal standing. We release a reusable one-command harness for any alignment paper to run the same audit.