Does 1/2-Tsallis-INF Also Work Well for Best-Arm Identification?

Regret minimization (RM) and best-arm identification (BAI) are two fundamental objectives in multi-armed bandits. Among regret-minimizing algorithms, $1/2$-Tsallis-INF is a canonical best-of-both-worlds FTRL algorithm: it achieves logarithmic pseudo-regret in stochastic bandits while retaining minimax-optimal regret in adversarial bandits, without knowing the environment in advance. This raises a natural question: can the same algorithm, without additional exploration, also identify the best arm reliably? We study this question in stochastic bandits by analyzing the failure probability $\operatorname{Err}_t$, defined as the probability that the empirical best arm determined by the cumulative importance-weighted loss estimates of 1/2-Tsallis-INF differs from the true optimal arm. The main difficulty is that, at the logarithmic-regret scale, suboptimal arms are sampled with probability heuristically of order $1/t$. Consequently, importance weighting causes the cumulative estimator to fluctuate on the same linear scale as its mean separation. To overcome this obstacle, guided by a diffusion toy model, we construct a Lyapunov function for the gap process between the estimated cumulative loss of the optimal arm and that of the best competing arm. This leads to polynomial upper bounds on $\operatorname{Err}_t$: for learning rate $η_t=α/\sqrt t$, $\operatorname{Err}_t$ decays at rate $t^{-2+α^2μ_{i_*}/4+ρ}$ for any $ρ>0$, where $μ_{i_*}$ denotes the mean loss of the true optimal arm. We also establish a lower bound $Ω(t^{-2-\varepsilon})$ for any $\varepsilon>0$, showing that the exponent $2$ is essentially tight.

Fixed-Confidence Best-Arm Identification for Causal Mediation Analysis

This paper studies the problem of identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO), which captures the potential outcome of an intervention while excluding the pathway transmitted through a mediator that researchers may wish to remove from evaluation. We first establish population-level identification of the expected NDPO in a causal bandit setting using observable interventional distributions. We then develop a fixed-confidence best-arm identification (BAI) algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop (TaS) framework, employing a cutting-set method to solve the resulting semi-infinite optimization problem. The proposed algorithm achieves sample-efficient identification with a high-probability correctness guarantee. We prove that it satisfies $δ$-correctness and asymptotic optimality. Finally, we validate the approach through empirical evaluations on a large-scale real-world advertising dataset (IPinYou).

Bayesian Best-Arm Identification with Abstention: A Polynomial-to-Exponential Phase Transition

We study the Bayesian fixed-budget best-arm identification problem in which a learner can abstain from making a terminal recommendation. Subject to an abstention budget $α$, we analyze the probability of undetected error--the risk of recommending a suboptimal arm without abstaining. Our central finding is that abstention induces a phase transition: without abstention, the error probability decays polynomially in the sampling budget $T$; in contrast, introducing any small positive abstention budget shifts this to an exponential decay. For Gaussian priors and rewards, in the regime $T\to\infty$ followed by $α\downarrow0$, we establish exact matching information-theoretic lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds on the optimal error exponent, which takes the form $\exp(-\frac{α^{2}T}{8κ_ν^{2}})$. The hardness parameter $κ_ν$ represents the prior density of the top-two gap at zero, highlighting that nearly tied instances drive the fundamental error. We introduce an adaptive algorithm, PGWS, that successfully achieves this optimal exponent by expending its abstention budget on statistically ambiguous instances. We further demonstrate that this polynomial-to-exponential improvement is exclusively a Bayesian phenomenon--in the frequentist setting, abstention only affects lower-order exponent terms. We also extend our results beyond the Gaussian model.

Tree-Guided Identify-Then-Exploit: A Unified Framework of Best Arm Identification and Regret Minimization for Dueling Bandits

We study $N$-armed stochastic dueling bandits under the Condorcet-winner assumption, where three widely adopted objectives are considered: best-arm identification (BAI), weak regret, and strong regret. We propose Tree-Guided Identify-Then-Exploit (TG-ITE), the first unified framework to tackle all these objectives to our knowledge. Without requiring stronger assumptions, we propose a shared tree-guided identification approach to find a high-confidence incumbent within $O(N)$ comparisons. We further propose varied exploitation strategies to utilize this warm-start stage to optimize the specific objectives at hand. This methodology enables our approach to (1) achieve $O(N)$ sample complexity in BAI without commonly adopted stronger assumptions; (2) build the first winner-stays-style algorithm to achieve $O(N)$ weak regret; (3) enjoy the same $O(N \log T)$ guarantee as specialized strong-regret approaches; (4) realize the joint optimization of BAI and weak regret with $O(N)$ guarantees for both, eliminating the sub-optimal gap of $O(\log N)$ in the existing approach. Our results provide evidence that the trade-off between BAI and regret minimization is relatively benign in dueling bandits.