Control-Oriented Scenario Tree Construction through Reinforcement Learning

Multistage stochastic model predictive control (MPC) handles uncertainty by optimizing over a scenario tree, a finite branching approximation of future outcomes constructed from sampled forecasts. To build such a tree, conventional methods focus on matching the underlying probability distribution---e.g., via Wasserstein-based scenario reduction---but improved distributional accuracy does not necessarily yield better control performance. We propose a control-oriented approach that learns scenario tree construction directly from its impact on downstream decisions. Fixing the tree topology, we formulate tree construction as a sequential assignment of sampled scenarios to leaves. This assignment is parameterized by an attention-based policy over the scenario set and trained using reinforcement learning, with closed-loop control profit as the objective. Training is stabilized by an asymmetric critic that leverages realized future trajectories. We evaluate the method on a risk-averse battery arbitrage problem. Across a range of forecast set sizes, the learned construction consistently achieves the highest profit, outperforming classical forward and backward reduction methods and certainty-equivalent (single-trajectory forecast) control. The learned policy also exhibits greater robustness on challenging instances, consistently demonstrating better tail-risk characteristics. Analysis of the resulting trees indicates that our method constructs compact, selectively branching structures that capture high-impact events while keeping most trajectories nearly deterministic. These findings highlight that the value of a scenario tree depends critically on the decisions it supports, and provide an effective framework to train scenario tree constructors merely based on the closed-loop control optimization signal.

Sophisticated Policies from Epistemic Priors

Sophisticated Inference is a variant of active inference often associated with recursive belief modeling and tree search. We argue that its central computational role is simpler: within a planning horizon, it makes active inference closed-loop by allowing future actions to depend on future states and observations. This closed-loop structure can be represented in the epistemic-prior variational free energy framework. Epistemic priors supply the active-inference objective, while a joint posterior over future states and actions supplies the state-contingent control structure. We evaluate this decomposition in the Reactivity Maze, a stochastic benchmark designed to separate epistemic incentive from inner-horizon closed-loop control. The comparison includes three variational objectives with the same state-action posterior family, an action-state factorized active inference objective, Sophisticated Inference, and standard Expected Free Energy planning. The results show that neither ingredient is sufficient on its own. Methods without an epistemic component do not seek information, while methods that prevent future actions from depending on future states cannot turn information into reliable goal-reaching. By contrast, both Sophisticated Inference and full-joint epistemic-prior active inference solve the environment by combining epistemic drive with closed-loop inference. These results show that the advantage associated with Sophisticated Inference need not be specific to tree search itself. It arises from the closed-loop form of active inference, and this form can be represented in epistemic-prior variational inference when the posterior keeps future actions dependent on future states.

The Artificial Experimentalist: Discovery and Control of Self-Organizing Phenomena with Autotelic Reinforcement Learning

Existing methods for exploring cellular automata and other complex systems mostly operate in open loop: they set initial conditions, execute a full simulation, and observe the outcome, without intervening during execution. We introduce a closed-loop framework based on autotelic reinforcement learning, in which an agent autonomously samples diverse goals and learns a goal-conditioned policy to intervene in a complex system through minimal, local perturbations. We instantiate this framework on Lenia, a continuous cellular automaton known for life-like self-organizing patterns, in an agentic system we call CARL, and demonstrate three capabilities. First, CARL discovers stable solitons across a wide range of Lenia update rules at a higher rate than heuristic baselines. Second, it learns to steer the movement direction of existing solitons with few interventions, showing that CARL can control self-organizing patterns, not only create them. Third, humans can use trained agents to guide solitons through maze environments in real time by specifying high-level directional commands that the agent translates into low-level interventions. Trained across diverse goals, update rules, and random initial states, the agents acquire policies that generalize zero-shot to various out-of-distribution conditions. These results suggest a path toward artificial experimentalist agents that, autonomously or with human guidance, discover and control emergent phenomena in complex systems.