Quantifying Risk Under Evolving Uncertainty: Belief-Dependent Robustness for Safe Sequential Decision Making

How cautious should an agent be while it is still learning its environment? We propose RATTL (Risk-Adversarial Total-Reward Learning), which ties caution to epistemic uncertainty: the agent holds a Bayesian posterior over unknown dynamics and plans against a Wasserstein ambiguity set whose radius is a monotone function of that posterior. The radius contracts with evidence, so behaviour interpolates continuously between worst-case robustness and risk-neutral total-reward maximization. The design follows the duality underlying the Entropic Value-at-Risk, which converts the choice of a risk level into the choice of an ambiguity radius. We show the resulting planning problem is well posed under transience and compactness conditions, and prove a Safety Sandwich: the RATTL value lies between the uninformed robust value and the full- knowledge optimum, with a gap that vanishes as the posterior concentrates. In a canonical binary-hazard instance, the induced criterion reduces to Conditional Value-at-Risk at a level set by the posterior entropy. A worked example shows the agent deferring the efficient action until a sharp identification threshold. RATTL targets runtime safety for agents, including LLM-based systems, acting under uncertainty.

SHAPO: Sharpness-Aware Policy Optimization for Safe Exploration

Safe exploration is a prerequisite for deploying reinforcement learning (RL) agents in safety-critical domains. In this paper, we approach safe exploration through the lens of epistemic uncertainty, where the actor's sensitivity to parameter perturbations serves as a practical proxy for regions of high uncertainty. We propose Sharpness-Aware Policy Optimization (SHAPO), a sharpness-aware policy update rule that evaluates gradients at perturbed parameters, making policy updates pessimistic with respect to the actor's epistemic uncertainty. Analytically we show that this adjustment implicitly reweighs policy gradients, amplifying the influence of rare unsafe actions while tempering contributions from already safe ones, thereby biasing learning toward conservative behavior in under-explored regions. Across several continuous-control tasks, our method consistently improves both safety and task performance over existing baselines, significantly expanding their Pareto frontiers.

Biased Dreams: Limitations to Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification in Latent Space Models

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning distinguishes between physical dynamics models operating on proprioceptive inputs and latent dynamics models operating on high-dimensional image observations. A prominent latent approach is the Recurrent State Space Model used in the Dreamer family. While epistemic uncertainty quantification to inform exploration and mitigate model exploitation is well established for physical dynamics models, its transfer to latent dynamics models has received limited scrutiny. We empirically demonstrate that latent transitions are biased toward well-represented regions of latent space, exhibiting an attractor behavior that can deviate from true environment dynamics. As a result, discrepancies in environment dynamics may not manifest in latent space, undermining the reliability of epistemic uncertainty estimates. Because these attractors often lie in high-reward regions, latent rollouts systematically overestimate predicted rewards. Our findings highlight key limitations of epistemic uncertainty estimation in latent dynamics models and motivate more critical evaluation of this method.