Uncertainty-Driven Replay Memory for Reinforcement Learning

Uncertainty estimation provides promising capabilities for reinforcement learning (RL) agents. Notably, estimating uncertainty can reduce the training time and enable agents to obtain greater rewards over time by exploiting information related to whether an action would facilitate exploration of portions of an environment that are well-known versus those that are relatively unknown. In this work, we propose a novel formulation of the experience replay buffer commonly used in RL that we call uncertainty-driven replay memory (UDRM), which entails an update scheme for internally stored memories based on uncertainty estimates obtained by an RL model during training. In contrast to existing forms of RL, which typically use temporal difference error or the distribution of transitions to update the replay memory buffer and train RL controllers, our scheme biases the memory buffer to store more uncertain transitions that will improve an RL agent's generalization throughout training. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed uncertainty-aware replay buffer enables an RL agent to obtain higher rewards during training compared to other existing uncertainty-aware RL frameworks.

Reading the Room: Implicit Confusion Encoding in Recurrent World Model States

World models built on the RSSM architecture, such as DreamerV3, keep a recurrent hidden state $h_t$ trained only to reduce prediction error. We show this state also tracks its own confusion, hiding in plain sight: nearly orthogonal to $h_t$'s directions of greatest variance, invisible to any variance-based method. It is functionally distinct from ensemble disagreement, which flags new inputs, and reconstruction error, which flags bad predictions right now. On a test holding prediction error fixed while confusion varies, a linear probe on $h_t$ finds the signal (AUROC 0.72, 5 runs), while an ensemble baseline scores below chance. A discounted count of recent high-error steps explains 80% of the probe's output ($R^2=0.80$). We confirm the signal is causally used, not merely present, by editing $h_t$ directly and watching behaviour change, including a check using real values from other trajectories instead of synthetic edits. Its geometry and closed form generalize across three control tasks; the decisive dissociation test itself holds cleanly on only one, and its practical use, deciding when to check reality instead of trusting imagination, generalizes to only two of the three tasks.

Belief-Guided Decision Making with Uncertainty Gating in the Game of Go

Recent advancements in Computer Go, driven by AlphaZero and MuZero, rely heavily on Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to correct the errors of the neural network policy. While effective on massive computational clusters, this dependence creates a critical bottleneck on consumer-grade hardware, where the computational cost of tree management severely limits inference rates. Furthermore, without deep search, these models suffer from hallucination, proposing moves with high confidence that are strategically fatal. This paper introduces a novel Belief-Guided architecture that disentangles the Policy head from a distinct Belief head. Unlike traditional value functions, the Belief head acts as an internal simulator and independent critic, modeling epistemic uncertainty and strategic stability. By integrating memory mechanisms (Transformer/GRU) to handle long-term dependencies and the Ko rule, and utilizing a gating mechanism to filter overconfident policy errors, our model shifts the burden of intelligence from runtime search to parametric "intuition." Experimental results demonstrate that this approach significantly improves search-free win rates and reduces hallucination, enabling professional-level play on limited hardware where massive MCTS is infeasible.

Collaborative Weighting with Pessimistic Critic for Mitigating Overestimation in Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning

Deep off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms for continuous control typically rely on neural value function approximation to guide policy improvement. However, temporal-difference (TD) learning introduces noisy targets, resulting in non-stationary optimization, while greedy policy updates amplify early-stage estimation errors. The recursive propagation of such errors leads to persistent overestimation bias and degraded training stability in actor-critic methods. Existing approaches attempt to alleviate this issue via prioritized sampling or modified value learning objectives, but often overemphasize high-uncertainty transitions caused by limited data coverage or bootstrapping errors, thereby further amplifying bias.In this paper, we propose Collaborative Weighting Actor-Critic (CWAC), a unified framework that explicitly accounts for predictive uncertainty in value estimation. CWAC employs distributional critic to model return uncertainty and introduces a collaborative weighting mechanism that jointly reweights TD-errors and uncertainty, enabling robust learning from reliable samples while suppressing noisy updates. In addition, we incorporate a stochastic pessimistic value estimation scheme via sampling from the return distribution, which effectively mitigates error propagation during policy improvement. CWAC can be seamlessly integrated into existing off-policy algorithm frameworks such as SAC, TD3, and DDPG with minimal overhead. Empirical results demonstrate that our proposed method significantly enhances performance across a diverse range of simulated tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CWAC-348E.

Conservative Query and Adaptive Regularization for Offline RL Under Uncertainty Estimation

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn an effective policy from a static dataset, but its performance is fundamentally limited by dataset coverage. Action preference queries leverage expert feedback without additional environment interaction, enabling policy improvement during offline training. However, existing methods still face two key challenges: selecting informative preference queries and effectively exploiting the collected feedback. Current approaches typically rely only on the distance between policy actions and dataset actions for query selection, while enforcing fixed constraints that keep the policy close to queried preferences. Such strategies often lead to unstable policy updates and integrate poorly with value regularization. To address these limitations, we propose Conservative Query and Adaptive Regularization under Uncertainty Estimation, a lightweight framework that jointly improves preference querying and preference exploitation. Specifically, we employ a Morse network to estimate the uncertainty of policy actions with respect to the offline dataset. Based on this uncertainty, we introduce a conservative query strategy that selectively queries actions near the dataset to preserve Bellman-update stability, together with an uncertainty-aware adaptive regularization scheme that dynamically adjusts data-level constraints during policy optimization. We integrate our framework with CQL and evaluate it extensively on the D4RL benchmark. Experimental results demonstrate superior or competitive performance across a wide range of tasks.

Learning from World Feedback: Why Model Uncertainty Fails as a Risk Signal in Model-Based RL

The RLxF programme argues that learning signals should come from world feedback rather than from internal model proxies. We instantiate this position in safe model-based control and distil it into three concrete design principles. Empirically, across four world-model architectures spanning a 2x MSE range, MPC planning is statistically equivalent (TOST, n=200), and dynamics-based uncertainty penalties increase collision rates from 26% to 34%: the standard MBRL safety proxy is anti-correlated with safety in this regime. Replacing the model-internal proxy with three world-feedback signals (a sensor-derived margin via minimum lidar, a temporal signal via time-to-collision, and an outcome-supervised feedback model g_psi trained on prior collision labels, structurally analogous to outcome-trained reward models in RLHF) reduces collisions to 1-14% without retraining the world model or the planner. The mechanism is structural: model uncertainty has support over state-prediction space, whereas task risk has support over constraint boundaries, with empirical correlation r < 0.15. From this we extract three RLxF principles (ground risk in world outcomes, validate proxies before deployment, and substitute outcome-trained feedback models when direct world signals are unavailable) and argue they apply equally to model-based control and to verifier-based or RLHF approaches in LLM alignment.

When to Plan: Learning to Select Between Reactive Control and Deliberative Planning

It has long been recognized that humans have the ability to switch between fast, reactive decision-making and slower, deliberative planning. In this paper, we study the question of how to learn this ability, known as meta-reasoning, in artificial agents. We model reactive decision-making as a policy that directly maps state observations to actions. Such policies can be trained with reinforcement learning (RL) or imitation learning, but may generalize poorly outside of their training distribution. Alternatively, model-based decision-time planning is more likely to produce good actions across a broader set of states but requires additional computation time, which delays acting. In this work, we introduce an RL method for training a meta-reasoning policy that allocates computation by conditioning on a reactive-policy uncertainty score. This score enables it to predict when the reactive policy is likely to perform poorly and when planning is needed. We conduct an empirical study on motion planning and navigation environments, showing that this design enables the meta-reasoning policy to learn when the reactive policy provides a good-enough action versus when decision-time planning is needed. Additionally, we show that our design enables the meta-agent to shift toward fully reactive control as the reactive policy improves.

From Critic to Confidence: PPO for Language-Based Quantitative Prediction with Confidence Estimation

LLMs can perform language-based quantitative prediction from unstructured inputs, but remain susceptible to hallucinations and overconfident errors, making it critical to know not only what a model predicts, but when its predictions can be trusted. We introduce CARE-PPO, a reinforcement learning framework that establishes a connection between loss prediction for uncertainty estimation and actor-critic PPO fine-tuning, enabling joint learning of accurate numerical estimates and reliable confidence signals in language-based quantitative prediction. CARE-PPO uses a Confidence-Aligned Reward for Estimation, defined as a function of prediction error, to provide dense error-aware feedback to the actor while inducing the critic to learn a value function aligned with prediction quality. During inference, we repurpose the critic as a confidence estimator. Across two real-world tasks in healthcare and finance and two Qwen-3 model scales (4B and 8B), CARE-PPO achieves strong quantitative prediction performance, while producing significantly better-aligned confidence estimates through the critic than logit-based and verbalized baselines. These gains persist under realistic out-of-distribution settings across domains, spanning linguistic and domain shifts. Finally, CARE-PPO reduces task-specific overfitting on general instruction-following prompts, consistent with the broader generalization advantages of RL fine-tuning over supervised approaches.

Trading Confidence: Comprehensive Uncertainty Estimation in Algorithmic Trading

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful approach in financial trading, enabling agents to learn optimal strategies through direct market interaction. However, financial markets are highly uncertain, with price fluctuations driven by stochastic volatility, model limitations, and regime shifts. Traditional RL models struggle in dynamic environments, often failing to adapt to sudden market disruptions, leading to suboptimal trading decisions. To address this challenge, we propose an uncertainty-aware RL framework that integrates distributional, epistemic, and aleatoric uncertainty estimations. Our approach enhances uncertainty estimation using SHAP-weighted reconstruction uncertainty, MC Dropout, and an LSTM-based technical indicator consensus mechanism. Experimental results on five major U.S. stock indices demonstrate that RL agents equipped with uncertainty estimation significantly outperform traditional models in return and risk management. This study advances uncertainty estimation in RL-based financial trading, with future research extending its application to other asset classes and alternative RL architectures for greater adaptability.

UBP2: Uncertainty-Balanced Preference Planning for Efficient Preference-based Reinforcement Learning

Preference-based RL provides an approach to learning reward models from pairwise comparisons of behaviors, bypassing the need for explicit reward design. However, existing methods typically rely on passive data collection and suffer from poor sample efficiency, especially during the early stages of learning. We introduce a model-based approach that actively directs exploration by jointly reasoning over uncertainties in the reward, dynamics, and value functions. Our method, Uncertainty-Balanced Preference Planning (UBP2), uses ensembles of reward, dynamics, and value function models to evaluate candidate trajectories according to a unified score that combines expected reward, terminal value, and epistemic uncertainty. Planning under this objective yields an explicit tradeoff between exploitation and information acquisition without requiring ad hoc exploration heuristics. Under standard regularity assumptions, we establish sublinear regret guarantees for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon settings. Empirically, experiments on the Meta-World benchmark show UBP2 achieves substantially higher sample efficiency than model-free preference-based methods and non-optimistic model-based baselines.

Uncertainty-Aware LLM-Guided Policy Shaping for Sparse-Reward Reinforcement Learning

Sparse rewards and heterogeneous task sequences remain persistent challenges in Reinforcement Learning (RL), often resulting in slow convergence, weak generalization, and inefficient exploration. We propose Uncertainty-Aware LLM-Guided Policy Shaping (ULPS), a novel framework that integrates a calibrated Large Language Model (LLM) into the RL training loop to provide structured, uncertainty-modulated behavioral guidance. ULPS employs an A*-based oracle to synthesize optimal symbolic trajectories, which are used to fine-tune a BERT-based language model. During training, this model supplies action suggestions whose influence is conditioned on epistemic uncertainty estimated via Monte Carlo (MC) dropout. An entropy-based blending mechanism adaptively balances LLM guidance and the learned policy (via Proximal Policy Optimization, PPO), allowing the agent to prioritize reliable priors while preserving adaptability. We evaluate ULPS on the MiniGridUnlockPickup benchmark and observe consistent improvements in success rate, reward efficiency, and sample complexity over unguided, uncalibrated, and standard RL baselines. ULPS achieves more than 9% improvement in execution accuracy after fine-tuning, requires fewer environment interactions, and yields higher reward AUC. Our results demonstrate that integrating symbolic A* trajectories, pretrained language priors, and uncertainty-aware control offers a principled and effective approach to multi-task reinforcement learning in sparse-reward domains, with potential extensibility to partially observable and multi-agent settings.

Smart Picks in the Dark: Towards Efficient RLVR for Reasoning via Tracing Metacognitive Pivots

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has greatly advanced large reasoning models (LRMs), but it requires timely training on a huge fully-annotated dataset. To this end, data-efficient RLVR methods have been widely studied from two perspectives: (i) data selection methods identify a small subset of "golden" samples that yield near-full-data performance, but they rely on a pre-existing pool of labeled data. (ii) unsupervised RLVR methods train the model using its own internal supervision signals on large-scale unlabeled data, yet they exhibit suboptimal performance. Accordingly, we investigate the "pick in the dark" setup for RLVR, which aims to select, without prior supervision, unlabeled samples that are most beneficial for training and worthy of annotation. Through systematic analysis, we demonstrate that smart picks hinge on a well-calibrated uncertainty estimator to enable strategic partitioning of data for adaptive training regimes. Building on this insight, we propose PivotTrace, a three-way data triage framework that leverages attention dynamics to trace metacognitive pivots during reasoning. By precisely quantifying uncertainty through pivot density, PivotTrace achieves automated data routing to synergistically maximize both annotation and training efficiency. Empirically, PivotTrace surpasses the fully supervised LRM with only 29.3% annotated samples and 2.75 faster convergence.

Uncertainty-Aware Reward Discounting for Mitigating Reward Hacking

Reinforcement learning (RL) systems typically optimize scalar reward functions that assume precise and reliable evaluation of outcomes. However, real-world objectives--especially those derived from human preferences--are often uncertain, context-dependent, and internally inconsistent. This mismatch can lead to alignment failures such as reward hacking, over-optimization, and overconfident behavior. We introduce a dual-source uncertainty-aware reward framework that explicitly models both epistemic uncertainty in value estimation and uncertainty in human preferences. Model uncertainty is captured via ensemble disagreement over value predictions, while preference uncertainty is derived from variability in reward annotations. We combine these signals through a confidence-adjusted Reliability Filter that adaptively modulates action selection, encouraging a balance between exploitation and caution. Empirical results across multiple discrete grid configurations (6x6, 8x8, 10x10) and high-dimensional continuous control environments (Hopper-v4, Walker2d-v4) demonstrate that our approach yields more stable training dynamics and reduces exploitative behaviors under reward ambiguity, achieving a 93.7% reduction in reward-hacking behavior as measured by trap visitation frequency. We demonstrate statistical significance of these improvements and robustness under up to 30% supervisory noise, albeit with a trade-off in peak observed reward compared to unconstrained baselines. By treating uncertainty as a first-class component of the reward signal, this work offers a principled approach toward more reliable and aligned reinforcement learning systems.