A Computationally Feasible Framework for Causal Probabilistic Explanation

Explaining why a specific outcome occurred, and which inputs deserve the blame or credit, is central to philosophical, scientific, and policy analysis. Existing tools split into two camps. The theory of actual causality (AC) gives principled verdicts, but only for toy-sized models, because computing them requires enumerating counterfactual scenarios. Scalable attribution methods like SHAP (or even causal SHAP) at least partially ignore the causal structure that generated the data, and can give answers that conflict with a careful causal analysis. We close this gap with Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI). PCI builds on actual causality and on Pearl's notions of probability of necessity and sufficiency, but recasts the question of explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model that is easily approximated via Monte Carlo. By specifying a distribution over "candidate explanations," a distribution over counterfactual values, and a scoring function, PCI provides tractable, causally grounded, graded explanations, generalizing AC and Pearl's probability of causation as degenerate cases. We evaluate PCI in synthetic and real-world examples, spanning consistency checks with AC, scaling experiments, complex continuous-valued dynamical systems, and a real-world deployed causal machine learning model trained on millions of datapoints.

A location-invariant estimator of extremal quantile treatment effects for heavy-tailed distributions

Quantile treatment effects (QTEs) measure the effect of a treatment on the distribution of an outcome, and their estimation at extreme quantile levels is of central interest in applications where the target quantiles lie far beyond the range of the data. For heavy-tailed potential outcomes, existing extremal QTE estimators rely on extrapolation combined with a causal extreme value index (EVI) estimator, but the resulting estimator is not invariant under a common location shift of the potential outcome distributions, even though the population QTE is. We address this issue in two steps. First, we adapt the location-invariant Fraga estimator of the EVI to the causal setting using inverse propensity score weighting. Second, we replace the original extrapolation formula with a difference-based scheme, under which the location parameter cancels when quantile differences are taken. The resulting QTE estimator is therefore location invariant. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed extremal QTE estimators, and provide a consistent variance estimator, leading to asymptotically valid inference. A simulation study confirms the location invariance, the stability with respect to the threshold, and the coverage of the proposed methods.

OSR: Output Space Redistribution for Adaptive Label Removal in Classification Models

Label removal occurs frequently in classification systems with evolving taxonomies, where categories must be dynamically updated or eliminated. To accommodate such changes, classification models must adapt accordingly. Existing solutions, broadly categorized as retraining-based and feature-space-adjustment-based, share common limitations despite their variations, including reliance on access to original data, substantial computational and storage costs, inconsistent results, poor scalability, and degradation of model utility. To address this, we propose a novel approach that leverages statistical redistribution in the output space to approximate the post-removal confidence vectors of a retrained model. Applicable as a modular output filter, our method bypasses the burden of feature-space adjustments or loss-function convergence, alleviating scalability limitations. Furthermore, by requiring only existing labels and prior output confidences, the method potentially mitigates privacy concerns inherent to data-dependent solutions. Extensive experiments demonstrate competitive performance against full retraining, with improvements in computational efficiency and privacy preservation across several classification tasks.

RATL: Learning from Retrieved Residuals for Robust Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) complements parametric models with retrieved external evidence. The same idea is attractive for continuous-output regression, but directly reusing retrieved target values is often not robust when samples differ in output level, numerical scale, or local dynamics. Moreover, conventional forecasting pipelines generally use residuals for model optimization and error diagnosis, but do not retain individual historical residual examples as memory that can be accessed at inference time.For multivariate time-series forecasting, we propose RATL, a plug-in residual-retrieval and feedback-correction method. RATL freezes a base forecaster to construct retrieval keys and turns its historical forecast residuals into a train-only memory specific to that base model. At inference time, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar historical contexts subject to causal availability constraints, then uses a set-aware router operating over forecast blocks and variables to select and combine these trajectories. Experiments show that historical residuals matched to the current context contain reusable forecasting information and that RATL improves frozen base forecasters in most experimental settings. Ablations further show that learned routing strengthens raw residual feedback, while validation-based correction-strength selection limits residual over-injection.On real-world benchmarks, we use iTransformer as the primary frozen base forecaster, compare against multiple strong forecasting baselines, and test transferability across backbones. The results show that RATL can further improve base-forecaster performance in most settings.Overall, RATL shifts the retrieved object from historical target values to base-model-specific historical forecast errors, providing a plug-in, residual-memory-based paradigm for learned feedback correction in continuous-output forecasting.

Xiaomi-TabLDM: A Tabular Foundation Model Technical Report

We introduce Xiaomi-TabLDM, a tabular large data foundation model for classification and regression via in-context learning, which delivers superior prediction accuracy without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data generated from structural causal models (SCMs), our model enables more flexible context utilization and more efficient capacity scaling. i) A new performance standard. Strong regression performance across benchmarks: Xiaomi-TabLDM ranks 1st on OpenML-CTR23 and 2nd on regression across TALENT, TabArena, and BCCO, demonstrating consistently strong regression performance across four complementary benchmark suites. Favorable performance--efficiency trade-off: Xiaomi-TabLDM combines strong predictive performance with substantially lower computational cost. For example, on TabArena regression, it achieves the second-highest Elo while using 82% less training time and 68% less prediction time than the top-ranked TabFM. ii) Large-scale synthetic pretraining. Xiaomi-TabLDM expands the coverage and diversity of synthetic tabular data used for pretraining. We also adopt a three-stage training strategy together with dual-stream feature grouping, lightweight Attention Residual, and sparse Mixture-of-Experts, enabling Xiaomi-TabLDM to learn richer feature interactions and expert specialization across diverse tabular tasks. iii) Test-time scaling. Xiaomi-TabLDM further extends tabular prediction through test-time compute scaling, where allocating additional computation at inference time consistently improves predictive performance over the base model.

Differentiable Interval Bottlenecks for Interpretable Anomaly Detection in Numerical Data

Reconstruction-based anomaly detectors are accurate but opaque: a deep autoencoder flags a sample without telling a practitioner which feature ranges made it anomalous. We propose DIFFINT, an autoencoder whose latent bottleneck is structured as a set of soft, axis-aligned interval memberships learned end-to-end directly from raw numerical data, without any discretization or binarization. Each latent unit corresponds to a human-readable hyper-rectangle in feature space; an instance is encoded by how strongly it falls inside each interval relative to the other units, and its reconstruction error is the anomaly score. This keeps the power of differentiable representation learning while exposing an inspectable internal structure. We make the inductive bias precise: a certified reconstruction-error lower bound for points that fall outside every active coordinate of the learned support (with a Lipschitz-enforced decoder), and a graded, empirically verified suppression mechanism for the usual case in which only a few features are abnormal; and we provide a closed-form, label-free importance that ranks each (unit, feature) pair from quantities the model already maintains, turning trained intervals into auditable candidate constraints without ever seeing an anomaly label. On 48 ADBench benchmarks against 22 baselines under a common [-1, 1]-normalized protocol, DIFFINT attains the best mean rank overall on both metrics (4.10 on ROC-AUC, 4.16 on AUPR); among inlier-only detectors it leads its regime clearly, and it is competitive with the strongest contaminated-data detectors (see the stratified and complete-case analyses). It is the only interpretable detector in the statistically-tied leading cluster of seven methods.

Witnesses Explain Anomalies

Unsupervised anomaly detection scores each point of an unlabelled, contaminated sample in a single pass, and increasingly must also explain why a point is flagged. Yet the dominant detectors give a score with no account of which features drive it, and explanations are bolted on post-hoc with SHAP or LIME, which re-query the detector thousands of times per point and only approximate it. We introduce WAND, an unsupervised tabular anomaly detector that is explainable by design. WAND organises its computation around directions on the unit sphere, scoring each point by how far its projection escapes a sub-Gaussian extreme-value baseline. The originality of our approach is that the witness directions that flag a point, being vectors in feature space, are its explanation, a per-feature attribution obtained at no cost over scoring and, since the score is differentiable, recoverable by gradients. Scoring is linear in the sample size, and a probe-efficiency bound guarantees every anomaly a witness, hence an explanation. Across 47 ADBench datasets WAND attains the best mean Friedman rank at ROC-AUC parity with 16 unsupervised baselines, so the gain is interpretability at no accuracy cost; its native explanations are more accurate and faithful than post-hoc SHAP/LIME and ECOD at a fraction of the query cost. WAND is thus a practical, interpretable solution for explainable anomaly detection.

Genetic Algorithms for Tractable Bayesian Network Fusion via Pre-Fusion Edge Pruning

Bayesian Network (BN) fusion combines multiple input networks into a single structure, balancing dependency preservation with computational tractability. While unrestricted fusion retains all dependencies, it often results in overly complex networks with high treewidth, which affects inference scalability. Limited fusion mitigates this by pruning edges to control treewidth but risks overfitting to input-specific noise and omitting dependencies from the original BNs. This paper introduces a consensus framework that prioritizes shared structures among input networks while enforcing treewidth constraints, ensuring a good consensus. We propose genetic algorithms with advanced initialization, specialized operators, and a tailored fitness function. Additionally, we adapt existing methods to this problem and implement greedy baselines for benchmarking and further optimization. Experiments on synthetic and real-world BNs show the superiority of the proposed genetic algorithms over the adapted methods and greedy baselines.

Federated Causal Discovery via Regression-Directed Cumulants

In this paper we study linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) when used in federated environments. These causal models allow one to go beyond Markov equivalence. However, in many domains data are scarce, and increasing the sample size by centralising data from different clients is not advisable due to regulations such as the GDPR. The federated environment offers an attractive option to balance privacy and causal discovery accuracy. Unfortunately, the standard centralised estimator in the LiNGAM setting, i.e., DirectLiNGAM, cannot be straightforwardly federated. Higher-order cumulant tensors offer a way around this obstacle: they depend only on the joint distribution of the variables involved and add exactly across independent sample groups, so a single communication round suffices in horizontal, vertical, and hybrid partitions. However, FedISHC, i.e., the current federated method along these lines, breaks down under near-symmetric noise. To overcome the above limitation, we introduce the FedRCD family of causal discovery algorithms, and investigate three variants that trade off communication rounds against algebraic noise; two of them are exact federated counterparts of the centralised high-order cumulant (HC) and HC-LiNGAM algorithms, and the single-round variants further effectively support exact unlearning at any granularity, from a single observation to a whole client. Numerical experiments show that at sample sizes typical of real deployments, the entire cumulant-based federated family does not actually rank variables by the population asymmetry that the scores encode at zero. It ranks them by a variance ladder induced by the DAG along its directed paths, the cumulant counterpart of varsortability. Marginal standardisation collapses every cumulant method to near-random ordering, while scale-invariant DirectLiNGAM, not federable under this protocol, is unaffected.

Symmetries and Causality: Causal Effect Identification Beyond IID Data

In the natural sciences, symmetries and cause-effect relationships are ubiquitous. Yet for complex machine-learning tasks, like world-modeling in reinforcement learning, they appear difficult to harness. We propose a formal description of statistical systems based on symmetries in data leaving causal mechanisms invariant. The result is an abstract, simple and general mathematical language for causal reasoning. This paper provides formal descriptions of models and queries, setting up this language, and the formal infrastructure and strategies for their mathematically rigorous identification from data within this formalism. This approach reproduces and matches standard theoretical results on IID data and transport of experimental and non-experimental data. But its main purpose is to unify and substantially extend the scope of causal reasoning, in going beyond IID data and in approaching complex causal queries not captured by do- or soft-interventions. This new perspective on causally relevant aspects of data-modeling additionally sheds new light on well-known structures like c-components or hedges but also includes aspects of missing data and is inherently well-suited for the description of transfer and robustness properties.

Resolution-Aware Experimental Design under Partial Identifiability

Experimental design is commonly framed as choosing the experiment expected to provide the most information. Under partial identifiability however, persistent nuisance uncertainty can make the same observation carry different structural meanings. We introduce Resolution-Aware Experimental Design (RAED), which selects an experiment by the smallest expected nonempty structural candidate set achievable subject to false-exclusion control. We prove an exact cross-nuisance aliasing separation: an experiment can be preferred by structural and full-latent information gain, average classification, and nuisance-marginalized informativeness while having arbitrarily poorer valid structural resolution. RAED nevertheless preserves the expected ordering under a genuine composite Blackwell comparison. To make this criterion operational, we develop a learned score-based implementation with finite-sample nuisance-average and positive-tail calibration, and characterize a rare-tail sample-complexity obstruction. Under constrained sensing, two subsurface-flow benchmarks exhibit genuine RAED--expected-information-gain (EIG) experiment-selection disagreements, with the clearest and largest held-out resolution differences in WCA. In a fluvial benchmark, tail protection changes the selected physical experiment and replaces hard-region false exclusions primarily with explicit ambiguity. In a mechanistic methane-oxidation benchmark, a prospectively specified 5\% false-exclusion tolerance also yields a nontrivial finite-sample population guarantee for tail-sensitive nuisance risk, with 95\% joint confidence across all three structural families.

Restricted Eigenvalues Beyond Gaussian Width: Threshold Occupancy under Heavy Tails

Restricted eigenvalue (RE) bounds govern stable recovery by norm-regularized estimators. For isotropic sub-Gaussian measurements, the benchmark sample size is $1+w(A)^2$, where $w(A)$ is the Gaussian width of the normalized descent cone. The COLT 2015 open-problem note (Banerjee et al., 2015) asked whether the same law follows for heavy-tailed designs from a uniform small-ball condition alone. We give an explicit and systematic negative answer to the general question as formulated there: the proposed law fails in its full dimension-free, arbitrary-set form, and the missing obstruction is simultaneous threshold occupancy. A constant-width polyhedral descent cone with fixed small-ball constants has zero empirical RE on every sample path up to half the ambient dimension. More generally, every finite range space admits exact threshold encoding in an arbitrarily narrow spherical cap and a lift to a full polyhedral descent-cone section. For every fixed threshold VC dimension $d$, as $β\downarrow0$, the sharp worst-case sample complexity is $Θ(β^{-1}[d\log(1/β)+\log(1/δ)])$. The separation persists under exact isotropy and all finite moments: on the same constant-width cone, Gaussian measurements succeed with $O(1+\log(1/δ))$ samples, whereas an isotropic heavy-tailed design fails pathwise for $n\lesssim\sqrt{p/\log p}$. Gaussian smoothing yields an everywhere-positive $C^\infty$ density while retaining arbitrarily poor RE. Under isotropy, a distribution-free fallback governed by affine dimension times squared enclosing radius is sharp on this family.

Towards a Statistical Understanding of Mixture-of-Experts

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) architectures increase model capacity by combining a collection of expert predictors through input-dependent routing, while often activating only a small subset of experts for each input. Despite their growing importance in modern large-scale models, the statistical roles of their design choices, especially routing, sparse activation, and shared experts, remain only partially understood, as existing theory has largely focused on parametric or correctly specified MoE models. In this paper, we view MoE as a form of localized aggregation and show how this localization reshapes the approximation-estimation-computation tradeoff. We derive oracle risk bounds for learning dense and sparse routing with evolving experts, separating approximation, expert-learning, and router-estimation errors, and characterize how sparse Top-K routing can retain the benefits of localized aggregation while controlling per-input computation. We also interpret gating through the geometry of input space, relating routing performance to regions of local expert advantage, and show how shared experts, as adopted in architectures such as DeepSeekMoE, can extract common predictive structure so that routed experts focus on residual local variation. Together, these results provide a unified statistical framework for understanding MoE through input-dependent expert aggregation, in which expert specialization and computational tradeoffs are governed by local predictive structure.

Spectral characteristics of autoencoder parameters as a vector representation of data

This paper examines the relationship between the parameters of autoencoder models and the statistical properties of the data on which they are trained. Autoencoders are defined as models with an encoder-decoder architecture, trained to reconstruct input data through a compressed latent representation. It is proposed that the model parameters can be viewed as a dense vector representation of the corresponding sample. To test this hypothesis, a theoretical and experimental study is conducted in which a vector representation is formed based on the spectral characteristics of the autoencoder parameter matrices. Theoretical analysis shows that the singular values of the model parameter matrices are related to the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the training data, ensuring the transfer of information between the data space and the parameter space. Experimental results on the CIFAR-10 and FashionMNIST datasets confirm that the resulting vector representations allow for a high degree of accuracy in distinguishing between models trained on different data subsets, without resorting to complex vector generation algorithms or using the original samples. These results suggest that the parameters of trained autoencoders can be viewed as sample representations.

Beyond Straightness: Non-Crossing Flow Matching via Quantile AlignTree Coupling

The performance of Flow Matching largely depends on the quality of the coupling between the source and target distributions. However, independent coupling often leads to path crossings and local velocity ambiguity, while OT-based couplings typically incur high construction costs. To address this challenge, we propose Quantile AlignTree Flow Matching (QAT-FM), an efficient structured coupling strategy that constructs a hierarchical coupling between a Gaussian prior and the target data distribution via a quantile-aligned tree structure. QAT-FM constructs the coupling in $\mathcal{O}(Nd\log N)$ time and supports per-pair source sampling with $\mathcal{O}(d)$ complexity, enabling scalable training for large-scale high-dimensional generative tasks. Theoretically, we prove that the QAT coupling satisfies marginal consistency, induces non-crossing linear interpolation paths, and consistently improves path separation at intermediate times compared with independent coupling, thereby alleviating local velocity ambiguity. QAT-FM further extends naturally to conditional generation, enabling structured conditional coupling while preserving global Gaussian alignment. Experiments across diverse benchmark datasets demonstrate that QAT-FM achieves competitive generative performance while substantially reducing coupling construction cost.

Guide, Not Bind: Why Defeasible Priors Fail in Augmented Lagrangian Causal Discovery

Differentiable causal discovery methods increasingly encode expert priors as forbidden-edge constraints enforced by an Augmented Lagrangian (ALM) penalty, on the assumption that a data-adaptive relaxation mechanism will discount and eventually override a rule the data consistently contradicts. We show this design, which we call \emph{guide, not bind}, fails for two independent, precisely characterized reasons, and that directly repairing both restores it only partially. First, sequential penalty-ramping ALM suppresses a wrongly-forbidden true edge before any counterfactual check can detect it: we give three necessary conditions any adaptive relaxation must satisfy to avoid this (Proposition~\ref{prop:conditions}), prove that DADU---the natural relaxation rule this paper introduces as the object of study---violates all three (Corollary~\ref{cor:dadu_failure}), and confirm the failure across 3{,}072 training runs spanning graphs from 4 to 32 nodes, where a single wrong prior suppresses a true edge in 87--97\% of trials under DADU. Second, and independent of any fix to the mechanism, we prove in closed form that the standard correlation-matching objective ties a true edge and its reverse to an identical cost of exactly $2r^2$ (Lemma~\ref{lem:tie}), not because the underlying equal-variance model is unidentifiable, but because normalizing to correlation discards exactly the variance information that would make it identifiable; covariance matching instead separates the two directions by a provable margin of at least $w_0^4$ (Lemma~\ref{lem:separation}).

Spectral Convergence of Random Feature Method in Multiple Dimensions

We first prove spectral convergence of the random feature method (RFM) for multidimensional targets in Sobolev, Gevrey, ultra-analytic, and bandlimited classes. The analysis establishes general high-probability approximation estimates in the interpolation scale generated by a kernel integral operator. On a single event determined only by the sampled features, one random space approximates every target in a prescribed source ball; moreover, for each target, a single coefficient vector defines an approximant that attains spectral accuracy simultaneously in all admissible error norms. For both regularity-adapted frequency distributions and uniform distributions on growing frequency windows, the resulting rates range from super-exponential to algebraic, depending on the regularity of the target. Second, we establish abstract error estimates for strong- and weak-form RFM discretizations, thereby converting the preceding approximation bounds into convergence estimates for multidimensional second-order elliptic boundary value and eigenvalue problems. Finally, for random feature matrices (RFMtxs), we prove super-exponential singular-value decay with Fourier features and exponential decay with $\tanh$ features, together with corresponding condition-number lower bounds. The analysis identifies a common mechanism: the same spectral approximation that yields high accuracy also drives severe ill-conditioning.

B2B Customer Conversion Prediction: A Document Representation, Graph Theory, and CatBoost Driven Methodology

In the one-time selling B2B context, the buying cycle may last months or even years. During the long process, targeting customers that have a high potential to make purchases and recommending personalized campaigns accordingly are important for effective marketing. For this goal, we study the following problems, B2B customer data aggregation, customer feature generation, and prediction of whether a B2B customer would show interest in making a purchase (i.e., prediction of conversion into sales funnel). We propose an algorithm to aggregate individual contacts to the B2B customer level based on multiple keys. For non-standardized keys such as company names, we propose a novel architecture to cluster them in a domain encompassing irregularities such as spelling mistakes and spelling variants. We then define and generate a set of features and apply the CatBoost model for customer conversion prediction. Our framework achieves 91\% prediction accuracy. Based on the prediction results and analysis of the model, we then discuss personalized campaign recommendations to foster conversion.

A Closed-Form Formula for Consistent Lipschitz Regression on Metric Spaces with Sparse Neural Network Realizations

Several classical machine-learning methods, such as KRRs and SVRs, are both computationally and analytically tractable since their estimators either admit closed-form expressions or are obtained by minimizing convex training objectives; neither feature is generally available for deep neural networks. We address this by introducing a simple closed-form ``two-stage'' compositional formula $\hat{f}$ for reconstructing an unknown Lipschitz function $f:\mathcal{X}\to \mathbb{R}$ on a metric space $(\mathcal X,ρ)$ from $N$ i.i.d. noisy observations. Our main result is a high-probability uniform ($L^{\infty}$) recovery guarantee that jointly controls approximation and statistical errors while enjoying an optimization error of zero; in particular, we do not assume oracle access to an approximate ERM. Our secondary main results establish the optimality of our formula in three complementary senses. 1) Function space: On Ahlfors-regular metric spaces, the hypothesis class parameterized by our formula attains the optimal fat-shattering dimension. 2) Parameter space: Its dependence on the parameters is maximally numerically stable, in the sense that a smaller approximation error cannot be achieved with a smaller Lipschitz dependence on the model parameters. 3) Forward pass: Its dependence on the input is maximally regular, matching the Lipschitz constant of the target function $f$. When $\mathcal X=[0,1]^d$ is equipped with the $\ell^\infty$ norm, $\hat{f}$ admits algorithmic ReLU-MLP and exact ReLU-multi-head transformer realizations of depth $\mathcal{O}(\log(N))$ with $\mathcal{O}(N)$ nonzero parameters.

Scaling Laws, Tabular Data and Actuarial Ratemaking Models

Scaling laws in modern deep learning describe how held-out loss improves as model capacity, training data, and compute increase, often following power-law trends. We investigate whether analogous scaling regularities arise in actuarial ratemaking, where data are tabular, heterogeneous, and noisy, and where classical models such as GLMs remain strong baselines. Using a real-world motor insurance portfolio, we train models from different families across increasing fractions of the training data and multiple random seeds, evaluating out-of-sample Poisson deviance, a likelihood-based loss for Poisson count predictions in which lower values indicate better held-out fit. We find that all model families improve with additional data, but scaling exponents differ substantially: TabM exhibits markedly stronger data scaling than purely supervised tabular Transformers and standard MLP baselines. Transformer variants show weak parameter scaling unless augmented with additional inductive biases (TabM-style adaptation or self-supervision). These results provide quantitative guidance on model selection by data regime and suggest that effective scaling on actuarial tabular tasks depends on architecture and loss function objective design, with simple increases in Transformer size providing limited gains.

Occupancy-based Quantile Risk Control

Conformal risk control is an emerging framework for the safe deployment of machine learning models with finite-sample guarantees. To accommodate a broader class of risk notions, quantile risk control extends this framework to quantile-based risk measures. However, existing methods either suffer from excessive conservatism or lack rigorous finite-sample guarantees. To address these limitations, we introduce Occupancy-based Quantile Risk Control (OQRC), a novel method that provides tight risk control bounds with finite-sample validity. Our key idea is to formulate risk control as a finite-occupancy problem by partitioning the loss space with the ordered calibration losses. Specifically, we estimate the distribution of test losses across the resulting bins and upper-bound the risk by the maximum loss attained within each bin. We then select the parameter $λ$ such that this upper bound does not exceed a predefined threshold $α$ with high probability $1-δ$. Theoretically, we establish a finite-sample guarantee showing that OQRC yields tight risk control bounds that converge to the optimal bounds at a provable rate of $\mathcal{O}_ p(n^{-1/2})$. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, reducing the risk gap by up to 78.64\% on common benchmarks.

Discrete Gromov-Wasserstein Duality: Algorithms and Isomorphism Testing

The Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) distance provides a principled framework for aligning metric measure (mm) spaces based solely on their intrinsic structure. Its ability to identify isomorphic representations of distributions across spaces renders it valuable for comparing data where equality up to isomorphism occurs naturally such as in graphs or, more generally, distributions on graphs. Recently, a type of dual form for the GW distance between Euclidean distributions with the squared Euclidean or inner product costs was derived, spurring the development of new statistical and algorithmic results for this setting. This work furnishes a novel duality result for GW distances with and without entropic regularization that is applicable to all finitely supported mm spaces. Leveraging this result, we derive the sample complexity of empirical GW distances between finite mm spaces, as well as limit distributions under proper centering and scaling. Furthermore, we propose new algorithms for solving the regularized GW problem which are subject to formal convergence guarantees. These statistical and algorithmic advancements give rise to a principled and efficient framework for testing whether two distributions on the set of graphs with a fixed number of nodes are isomorphic based on samples.

Causal Foundation Models

Causal inference is the practice of estimating the effect of a treatment or intervention from data. It traditionally requires a bespoke pipeline for every new problem: first proposing a causal mechanism, selecting a compatible estimator, and finally training it. Meanwhile, across diverse settings and modalities, much of machine learning has shifted to the paradigm of foundation models: networks pretrained once at scale and applied to new tasks without fine-tuning. Causal foundation models (CFMs) bring this paradigm to causal inference. CFMs are pretrained neural networks that estimate causal quantities, such as the average treatment effect, on entirely new datasets using in-context learning without requiring model updates. This work provides a practical introduction to this emerging area. We summarize the necessary background in causal inference and machine learning before discussing CFMs. Throughout, we include example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Copula Transformations for Data-Consistent Inversion

Data-consistent inversion (DCI) constructs probability measures whose push-forward distributions agree with observed data, while iterative data-consistent inversion (iDCI) extends this framework to generalized stochastic inverse problems by enforcing multiple push-forward constraints sequentially. Although iDCI avoids the direct approximation of high-dimensional joint densities, its relationship to the original joint DCI solution has remained unclear. In this work, we establish this relationship through copula theory. Using Sklar's theorem, we derive a factorization of the DCI update into separate marginal and dependence transformations and show that the discrepancy remaining after convergence of the iDCI algorithm is entirely characterized by the copulas associated with the observed and predicted joint distributions. This characterization motivates a copula-transformed iDCI solution, and we prove that an exact copula transformation recovers the original DCI solution. We further establish convergence results for approximate copula transformations under converging sequences of reference measures and progressively enriched feasible sets. Numerical examples demonstrate how the geometry induced by the quantity-of-interest map governs the importance of the copula transformation, illustrate an adaptive reference-measure refinement strategy for improving computational accuracy under a fixed sampling budget, and demonstrate the progressive refinement of generalized stochastic inverse problems through heterogeneous, asynchronously acquired experiments.

Dutch Books for Language Models

People increasingly use language models to support life decisions. Many such decisions involve a probabilistic forecast: How likely is a major life event, a natural disaster, or an economic outcome? Users of language models may implicitly trust that these forecasts fall out of a coherent world model. In this paper, we evaluate the coherence of language model probabilistic forecasts through a procedure that builds on a theorem due to de Finetti. We elicit forecasts from language models across events generated from stock returns data. We then use linear programs to compute the largest Dutch-book profit - the profit an arbitrageur could guarantee by betting against model-generated probabilities - which we use as a measure of incoherence. Our procedure does not require outcome labels, so we can evaluate coherence even in settings where outcomes are not observed or have not yet resolved. We find substantial evidence of incoherence in language model forecasts. Such incoherence increases when there are richer logical relationships between events, and irrelevant contextual details can increase incoherence by an order of magnitude. We conclude by discussing how alternative training strategies may improve probabilistic coherence.

Full-Model Optimality for Tunable Linear Generative Priors in Compressed Sensing

Generative models have been studied experimentally and theoretically as priors for inverse problems such as compressed sensing. Recent work by Gunn et al. studied the use of generative priors with tunable complexity, where a family of generative priors with varying complexity is maintained and a specific complexity can be selected at inversion time. They demonstrated that lower reconstruction errors can be experimentally attained for a variety of inverse problems by appropriately tuning the complexity of the generative prior. In the present paper, we establish theory for compressed sensing in the setting of a tunable family of linear generative priors naturally related through their singular value decompositions. We prove that in noiseless Gaussian compressed sensing, the full-dimensional linear prior attains the minimum expected reconstruction error over the entire family of linear priors. Thus, in this idealized linear noiseless setting, tuning to a lower-complexity prior does not improve the expected reconstruction error. This result is in contract to the behavior of denoising, where lower complexity priors attain lower reconstruction errors due to a standard bias-variance tradeoff. This result indicates that the experimental benefits of tunability in compressed sensing with neural network priors arises due to nonlinearities in the generative models.

Do Tabular Foundation Models Know Physics? Contamination, Units, and the Deterministic Limit

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) learn to fill in tables the way language models fill in text, and tables are arguably the format in which most physical measurement arrives. Did they learn any physics in the process? They are Bayesian by construction, so the question is what their prior contains. We probe it directly, evaluating four of them (TabPFN-3, TabICLv2, TabDPT and Real-TabPFN-2.5) against six baselines on datasets sampled from 316 physical equations, in and out of domain. TFMs dominate, out of the box and after tuning. But we show that their prior can represent neither a noiseless mechanism nor physical units, which is why they interpolate physics without yet being able to act as physical models.

No-Regret Bayesian Optimization with Finite-Library Input-Warped Kernels

Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization (GP-BO) excels at black-box optimization of costly functions, e.g., hyperparameter optimization (HPO) and multi-agent system (MAS) design. Convergence-rate guarantees exist for select methods, notably GP upper confidence bound (GP-UCB), but require a fixed kernel. Critically, the kernel encodes how input proximity affects objective value similarity. When raw coordinates poorly match this geometry - as with log-scaled hyperparameters or localized peaks - input warping can greatly improve sample efficiency, yet known GP-UCB proofs require a fixed kernel. We propose Finite-Library Input-Warped Bayesian Optimization (FLIWBO), which selects warps from a finite library of smooth input maps by any history-dependent rule. It adapts the input geometry to accelerate learning while retaining high-probability convergence guarantees under mild hypotheses, with an explicit $\sqrt(N_\varepsilon)$ library-size cost. Controlled diagnostics show that finite-library warping repairs planted geometry mismatches and identify FLIWBO failure cases. Across four repeated benchmarks - warped synthetic objectives, a confidence-fence trap, and Fashion-MNIST HPO - FLIWBO-UCB beats raw-coordinate GP-UCB under misspecified geometry, escapes traps that defeat even oracle-warp expected improvement, and recovers much of the gain from manual log scaling, while leading the tested methods that admit a matching regret guarantee. A 20-dimensional MAS design study further shows feasibility under costly noisy evaluations. Code for experiments is available: https://github.com/edvin-ketabati/bogp-paper-experiments.

Source Distribution Estimation by Posterior Averaging

Simulation-based science often requires a distribution over simulator parameters whose push-forward reproduces a set of real observations: this is the source distribution estimation (SDE) problem. Existing methods fit the source against a likelihood surrogate trained once from a fixed proposal prior. Their objective is therefore stated only in terms of the surrogate instead of the true simulator, which may fail for inaccurate areas in parameter space where the surrogate was never trained. We instead solve SDE by expectation maximization: an E-step trains an amortized posterior on fresh simulations from the current source estimate, and an M-step refits the source to the average of that posterior over the observed data. We give two parameterizations, (1) separate source and posterior flows and (2) a single shared conditional flow. We evaluate our method on three benchmark tasks under both broad and misspecified initial priors. Both improve on existing fixed surrogate approaches and on iterated variants of each, most clearly on Lotka--Volterra, where no baseline falls below 0.96 data-space C2ST while our methods reach 0.64-0.68 in three of four initial-prior settings.

IFW-BLS: Dual-Robust Broad Learning System with Intuitionistic Fuzzy Wave Loss

Broad Learning System is an efficient randomized learning model that expands network width through feature and enhancement nodes and estimates the output weights without deep backpropagation. Its standard least-squares training, however, is vulnerable in two different ways: (i) large residuals caused by noise, outliers, or corrupted labels can dominate the objective, and (ii) all samples are treated as equally reliable even when some lie in ambiguous or locally conflicting regions. This paper proposes IFW-BLS, an Intuitionistic Fuzzy Wave Broad Learning System that addresses these two sources of fragility within one optimization model. The first robustness mechanism is residual-level protection, obtained by replacing the squared loss with the bounded, smooth, and asymmetric wave loss. Boundedness prevents extreme residuals from receiving unbounded influence, while asymmetry allows positive and negative deviations to be penalized differently when the dominant error direction varies. The second mechanism is sample-level credibility control, obtained through intuitionistic fuzzy scores that combine global class-center consistency with local neighborhood conflict. The resulting model evaluates the wave loss on credibility-weighted residuals, so unreliable samples are down-weighted before the bounded loss further limits the effect of extreme errors. A Nesterov accelerated gradient based optimizer is used to solve the proposed objective, avoiding the explicit matrix inversion used in conventional BLS. Experiments on UCI benchmark datasets validate the superiority of the proposed IFW-BLS model over the baseline models; additional corruption experiments also show more stable performance than BLS under noise and outlier contamination.