Semi-Supervised Classification with Informative Missing Labels in Weibull Mixture Models

We consider semi-supervised classification from a partially classified sample arising from a two-component Weibull mixture. The feature is observed for all data, whereas some class labels are missing. The probability of a missing label is modelled as a function of classification uncertainty, giving a feature-dependent missing-at-random (MAR) mechanism that shares parameters with the Weibull-mixture classifier. The missing-label indicators can therefore provide information about the classifier in addition to the observed features and available class labels. Under a common Weibull shape, a Bayes' rule has at most one positive decision boundary, which is unique when the rule is nonconstant; under unequal shapes, it can have two. We characterise these decision regions, derive the Fisher information for the classifier after adjustment for nuisance parameters in the missingness model, and obtain a decision-boundary expansion of the expected error rate of the plug-in sample rule relative to the Bayes error. The expansion yields classification-specific asymptotic relative efficiency formulas for the one- and two-boundary cases and shows that a positive-definite increase in Fisher information is sufficient, but not necessary, for a smaller first-order expected error rate. Numerical studies and a semi-synthetic analysis based on hard-drive failure data illustrate potential reductions in expected error rate and improvements in decision-boundary estimation from modelling feature-dependent label missingness.

LaMoC: Loss-Aware Modular Compression for LLMs

Modular compression has enabled considerable parameter reduction in LLMs while preserving strong language understanding and downstream task accuracy. However, existing joint modular compression methods primarily rely on activation statistics, leaving loss-sensitivity information and its module-level characterization underexplored. We investigate addressing this gap with LaMoC, a loss-aware modular compression methodology that blends activation and Empirical Fisher statistics through gradient-error alignment. LaMoC improves joint compression by selecting compression statistics that better align local module reconstruction error with the downstream loss. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) We characterize the Empirical Fisher as a module-level loss-aware proxy that can be blended with the activation statistics required for compression. (2) We reformulate joint modular compression as a two-tiered optimization problem that minimizes module reconstruction error while tuning the activation and gradient information blending rate. (3) We implement an empirically driven methodology with statistical validation to solve the resulting compression problem. We evaluate LaMoC across four model families spanning eight models. On the 4-8B models, LaMoC achieves an average 2.5% reduction in perplexity and a 1% relative improvement in task accuracy over state-of-the-art modular compression methods.

Unifying Detection and Adaptation in Task-Free Continual Learning

To mitigate catastrophic forgetting in downstream continual learning (CL) for large language models (LLMs), existing methods typically constrain parameter updates or introduce task-specific adaptation modules. However, these methods often rely on explicit task boundaries during training, limiting their applicability to realistic task-free scenarios. In this paper, we propose a \textbf{Fi}sher-guided \textbf{uni}fied (\textbf{FiUni}) framework for batch-level task detection and parameter-efficient continual adaptation. FiUni is motivated by a key observation about the Fisher information matrix (FIM) of pre-trained models: the orthogonality among the principal subspaces of its Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (K-FAC) approximation, estimated from a small number of downstream task samples, can reflect the similarity between different tasks. Based on this observation, FiUni constructs FIM-derived frozen subspaces to guide low-rank adaptation (LoRA), while matching the Fisher principal subspace of each incoming batch window with historical subspaces. This enables FiUni to adaptively determine whether to reuse existing knowledge, expand a related subspace, or create a new subspace, dynamically balancing knowledge sharing and task isolation. Experiments show that FiUni can effectively infer latent batch-level task affiliations and achieve competitive performance against advanced task-aware CL methods with fewer trainable parameters.

Learning from Uncertainty-dependent Missing Labels for Semi-supervised Classification

Missing labels are usually regarded as a source of information loss in classification. We study a semi-supervised setting in which the probability of label missingness depends on the observed features through posterior classification uncertainty. In this setting, the missingness indicator is not only a record of an unobserved label, but also an observable signal generated by a mechanism linked to the classifier. We develop a likelihood-based information theory for such uncertainty-dependent missing labels. Under correct specification, we derive a Fisher-information decomposition that separates a partial-labeling component from a nonnegative mechanism-curvature term. Under joint misspecification of the label model and the missingness mechanism, we obtain the corresponding Godambe--Eicker--Huber--White sensitivity and sandwich-covariance partitions. We also clarify the relevant complete-data benchmark: favorable missingness can increase information relative to ordinary fully labeled or budget-matched non-informative labeling baselines, but cannot exceed the information in the augmented experiment in which labels and mechanism indicators are both observed. For plug-in classifiers, we connect the information decomposition to margin-based excess-risk bounds. In regular two-component mixture settings this yields the parametric \(n^{-1}\) excess-risk rate, with constants determined by the nuisance-adjusted information in discriminant directions. Gaussian-mixture calculations and a medical diagnosis example illustrate how uncertainty-dependent labeling mechanisms can improve estimation and classification under a fixed labeling budget.

The Loss Floor of Denoising Score Matching: Fisher Geometry from Schrödinger Bridges

Denoising score matching trains diffusion models by regressing onto a conditional score, although generation ultimately requires the marginal score. The two objectives share the same population minimizer, but the conditional target remains random at fixed noisy state and introduces an irreducible excess in the training loss. We isolate this excess and show that, for a general corruption kernel under mild regularity assumptions, it is exactly the trace of the Fisher--Rao metric of the conditional endpoint family, integrated along the diffusion trajectory. This gives an exact conditional-variance decomposition of the denoising objective and identifies the information geometry observed in diffusion latent spaces as an intrinsic component of the training loss. We derive the result from a Schr"odinger bridge variational principle, in which the ideal objective arises as excess path-space relative entropy. For corruption diffusions, the Fisher term is proportional to the rate at which the noisy state loses mutual information about the clean data, separating the loss floor into an information flow determined by the data and a weight determined by the corruption schedule and objective. In the Gaussian case, this yields a closed form for the floor, recovers reparametrization invariance of the continuous-time objective, and relates its high-SNR divergence to the information dimension of the data. Finally, we show that raw losses obtained with different noise ranges or weightings need not rank models consistently because they contain different additive floors, and contrast the second-order geometry seen by training with the third-order conditional statistics entering numerical sampling error.

Efficient Hypergradient Descent for Inverse Reinforcement Learning

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to recover a reward function under which the resulting policy reproduces the behavior observed in expert demonstrations. A natural approach is to formulate IRL as a bilevel optimization problem, in which the inner level corresponds to policy optimization under the learned reward and the outer level measures the discrepancy between the induced policy and expert data. However, this formulation is computationally challenging in practice because the outer update requires a hypergradient involving an inverse-Hessian-vector product for the inner objective. We address this challenge by showing that, at the inner optimum, the Hessian of the inner objective is proportional to the Fisher information matrix of the policy, yielding a structured Fisher-based hypergradient closely related to Natural Hypergradient Descent. To address the resulting scalability bottleneck associated with large Fisher matrices, we approximate the required inverse-Fisher-vector product using a streaming spectral sketch, avoiding explicit construction of the Fisher matrix. We evaluate our approach against a first-order stochastic bilevel baseline across discrete- and continuous-control environments. The results demonstrate competitive policy performance and strong reward-ranking quality, while Fisher sketching reduces curvature-storage complexity and can improve computational efficiency relative to an explicit Fisher solver.

Readout-Rank Laws for Isotropic Quantum Tangents

Deep parameterized quantum circuits may remain sensitive to a parameter change while the observables retained by a learning model barely respond. We study this separation for a fixed computational-basis measurement. For a pure-state tangent, we compare the quantum Fisher information $F_Q$, the Fisher information $F_{\rm full}$ in the complete bitstring distribution, and the largest variance-normalized response $\mathcal I_{\mathcal A}$ available to a diagonal readout space $\mathcal A$. If the joint state--tangent frame is Haar random, we prove that the two successive information fractions are independent Beta variables whose means are $1/2$ and $r/(2^n-1)$, where $r$ is the centered dimension of the readout. Consequently, even the joint span of all computational-basis Pauli strings through any fixed weight $k$ retain only $O(n^k2^{-n})$ of the full-record information. Exact-statevector experiments across six circuit families show increasing finite-size agreement with this hierarchy in five nonconserving ensembles as the circuit depth grows. A number-conserving family departs strongly from the isotropic prediction even after correcting the support and readout rank, showing that rank alone is insufficient without tangent isotropy.

Information-Geometric Forward Policy Training in GFlowNets

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) have emerged as a flexible framework for amortised inference over discrete and mixed discrete-continuous objects, requiring only an unnormalised target density specified through a reward. In this work, we formulate forward-policy training in GFlowNets through the information geometry of the induced trajectory sampler. Treating the forward policy as an induced trajectory sampler, we show that its intrinsic first-order geometry is given by the Fisher-Rao metric of the trajectory family, and that the associated natural gradient provides the canonical local update whenever the corresponding Fisher information is computable or accurately approximable. We derive an exact decomposition of the trajectory Fisher into per-step conditional second moments, which clarifies when temporal score interactions vanish and when dense couplings remain under shared parameterisation. This leads to three computational regimes: settings with tractable exact Fisher information, settings where Monte Carlo estimators of the expected Fisher are sufficient, and structure-exploitable settings in which target locality or factorisation yields accurate approximations of the Fisher expectation. In the latter case, graphical-model tools such as exact marginalisation, separator methods, and belief propagation provide principled surrogates for natural-gradient updates. The resulting framework turns target structure into optimisation geometry and yields a tractable route to structure-aware forward-policy training in GFlowNets. We illustrate the framework empirically through examples comparing convergence and exploration behaviour under Riemannian and Euclidean optimisation.

Understanding and Overcoming Cross-modal Fusion Bias in Multimodal Anomaly Detection From A Fisher Information Perspective

Current advancements in Multimodal Anomaly Detection (MAD) are largely driven by enhancing multimodal fusion, particularly through the integration of RGB and Depth data for richer anomaly representation. However, less attention was devoted to analyzing the role of cross-modal fusion bias, a well-known challenge in multimodal learning, in MAD. This gap motivates a key question: can we overcome this bias to break the performance bottleneck of current work? In this paper, we first analyze the impact of cross-modal fusion bias in MAD via the Fisher Information Matrix. Then, grounded in these findings, we propose UCFB, a simple yet effective plug-and-play framework designed to mitigate cross-modal fusion bias in MAD. It achieves this by jointly employing Fisher-information-guided dynamic calibration to adjust modality-specific regularization weights and canonical similarity analysis to improve inter-modal interactions. Extensive experiments on the MVTec 3D-AD and Eyecandies datasets demonstrate that UCFB achieves consistent improvements in single-class, multi-class, and few-shot settings.

F-WANDA: Fisher-Reweighted Post-Training Pruning for Sustainable Deployment of Large Language Models

One-shot post-training pruning is the most energy-frugal compression strategy for largelanguage models (LLMs), yet existing approaches trade either quality (WANDA) or compute cost (SPARSEGPT). We introduce F-WANDA, a drop-in modification of WANDA that reallocates the per-row keep budget across output neurons in proportion to the empirical Fisher information of the pre-activation. The Fisher signal is collected in a single additional backward pass over the same calibration corpus WANDA already uses; no weights are updated. On LLAMA-2-7B at 50 % unstructured sparsity, F-WANDA attains WikiText-2 perplexity of 6.85, matches WANDA fluency, and improves 5-shot MMLU by +1.6 pp over WANDA and +1.1 pp over SPARSEGPT, while incurring only one-third of SPARSEGPT pruning wall-clock and energy. The headline trade-off is achieved without extra calibration data or fine-tuning, placing F-WANDA on the Pareto frontier of quality versus pruning cost for sustainable LLM compression.

PIcsC: Partitioning-Induced Covariate Shift Correction

Covariate shift across training-data partitions biases model selection and parameter estimation in cross-validation, lifelong learning, and federated learning. We propose \textit{Partition-Induced Covariate-shift Correction} (\texttt{PIcsC}), a Fisher information-based regularization framework that mitigates distribution mismatch between data partitions and a reference distribution. \texttt{PIcsC} approximates partition divergence using the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) and incorporates the resulting statistic as a regularizer during optimization. The same formulation applies to both centrally partitioned datasets (batches or cross-validation folds) and inherently distributed data (federated clients or decentralized nodes), requiring only partition-local gradient statistics rather than raw data. We further introduce a conditional adaptation mechanism that combines FIM shift with KL divergence to detect significant distribution shifts and activates regularization only when necessary. Experiments on more than 40 datasets demonstrate consistent improvements under both natural and synthetic covariate shift. On fragmented batch and fold settings, \texttt{PIcsC} reduces fragmentation-induced performance degradation by more than 20\% and 25\%, respectively. On seven federated learning benchmarks, it consistently outperforms FedAvg, FedProx, and SCAFFOLD by 3 -5 percentage points without requiring client-specific personalization. These results demonstrate that Fisher information provides an effective and unified mechanism for mitigating partition-induced covariate shift across both centralized and distributed learning.

Interventional Score Geometry for Causal Inference

Let $p(x)$ be the joint density of variables $X$, and let $ψ(x)=\nabla_x\log p(x)$ be its score field. Geometry constructed from $p$ and $ψ$ alone cannot identify causal direction: structural models with the same observational distribution have the same score geometry. I develop an interventional analogue. A hard intervention $\operatorname{do}(X_k=ξ)$ does not merely reweight the joint law; it restricts the distribution to the submanifold ${x_k=ξ}$. Its score should therefore be defined on the remaining $d-1$ free coordinates. I define causal influence $X_k\rightsquigarrow X_j$ as variation of the interventional marginal distribution of $X_j$ with $ξ$, and show that the corresponding derivative of the marginal interventional score gives a local sufficient condition for influence. Projecting the observational score onto admissible intervention directions does not generally recover causal response: two models may share the same observational score and admissible set yet respond differently. I therefore introduce an interventional response field supplied by structural information. A causal metric is defined as the Fisher information metric on a family of interventions with a common target, avoiding ill-posed comparisons across targets. The framework yields a geometric dictionary for randomized trials, instrumental variables, and conditional-independence designs, clarifying what each does and does not identify. A bivariate Gaussian example gives two models with the same observational score but different interventional score derivatives. The framework organizes relations among designs, interventions, and score fields, but adds no identification beyond the underlying assumptions. In Pearl's Ladder of Causation, observational score geometry belongs to association, intervention-indexed score fields to intervention, and unit-level counterfactual geometry is left for future work.

Fisher Widths: Local Learning Geometry and Anisotropic Recovery

We study Gaussian-width complexity on statistical manifolds through a pair of functionals: the primal Fisher width $w_G(T) = w(G^{1/2}T)$, induced by the Fisher metric, and the inverse-Fisher width $w_{G^{-1}}(T) = w(G^{-1/2}T)$, induced by the inverse Fisher metric. The two widths play complementary statistical roles. On the learning side, the Fisher width measures the size of local parameter fluctuations in the geometry induced by the Fisher information. For Fisher-regular losses, we prove that the scale \(w_G(H_r)/\sqrt n\) is attained on sufficiently small Fisher balls. On the recovery side, the inverse-Fisher width captures the effect of anisotropic Gaussian measurements whose covariance is determined by the inverse Fisher information. For sparse recovery, the resulting geometry depends not only on sparsity but also on the position of the active coordinates in the Fisher spectrum. We obtain a two-sided estimate for the corresponding statistical dimension, together with support-sensitive recovery estimates and a natural ordering of supports with different curvature profiles. Finally, we establish a sharp relation between the primal and inverse-Fisher widths. On any common compact coordinate set $T$, they satisfy \[ w_G(T)w_{G^{-1}}(T)\geq w(T)^2. \] Thus, Fisher anisotropy may transfer complexity from one geometry to the other, but cannot reduce both widths relative to the Euclidean scale.

LAARA: Layer-Aware Adaptive Rank Allocation for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning

Low-Rank Adaptation is widely used for parameter-efficient fine-tuning, yet existing methods typically assign the same adapter rank to every transformer layer despite their heterogeneous adaptation requirements. In this work, we show theoretically and empirically that uniform rank allocation is fundamentally suboptimal. Motivated by this observation, we propose LAARA (Layer Aware Adaptive Rank Allocation framework), a search-free framework that dynamically allocates ranks using lightweight diagonal Fisher estimates computed during training. LAARA combines projection-wise normalization, logarithmic compression, blended adapter importance estimation, and a vote-to-change dampening mechanism to produce stable and efficient rank adaptation. Experiments on GLUE and MathInstruct benchmark demonstrate that LAARA consistently matches or outperforms popular state of the art approaches such as LoRA, AdaLoRA, DyLoRA, and Bitfit while using significantly fewer trainable parameters. Our results show that Fisher-guided rank allocation provides a principled and effective foundation for adaptive parameter-efficient fine-tuning. The code is publicly available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LAARA-D305/LAARA.py

Estimation-Prediction Tradeoff in Causal Probabilistic Temporal Graphs

Temporal link prediction (TLP) is typically evaluated by predictive performance on unseen edges, but this criterion can conflate predictive accuracy with recovery of the underlying causal mechanism. In stochastic models, Fisher information governs the Cramér--Rao (CR) bound on parameter estimation error: higher Fisher information permits more accurate parameter recovery. We show that, under comonotonicity conditions between Fisher information and entropy, binary logistic models exhibit an estimation--prediction tradeoff: regimes with higher Fisher information, and hence smaller CR bounds, also have higher irreducible predictive entropy. To study this tradeoff in TLP, we introduce a probabilistic causal generator for temporal graphs with transient edges and known ground-truth causal structure, and validate the phenomenon empirically.

A Transport-Based Geometry of Belief-Cost

A finite agent, a machine's digital twin or any bounded reasoner, infers a fixed and noisy world through finite sensors, so its coherent output is a belief: a probability density over states (the Bayes posterior). Such an agent stops short of certainty, and revising a belief carries a cost. We propose a framework for belief costs based on optimal transport, motivated by these facts. We pose two postulates. P0 (the arena): a revision cost is a scalar price on optimal transport, so beliefs live in Wasserstein space. P1 (uniform pricing): one nat of knowledge costs the same metric length everywhere, the eikonal condition. Among conceivable pricing rules we study this one. Under P0 and P1 the cost metric is optimal transport conformally reweighted by Fisher information, $\tilde g_{e,U}=2(e+U)\,g_{W_2}$, and the Fisher family is a characterization: among continuous reliefs, uniform pricing is equivalent to $U=cJ$. Two consequences follow on the conformal class. Certainty sits at infinite cost-distance once the relief dominates the Fisher information, so a well-posed inference has a cost floor diverging at certainty (necessity conjectural beyond power laws). On location-scale leaves the geometry is hyperbolic, and the Stam bound places the Gaussian as the most curved one (at $e=0$). The results are geometric, in nats, and hold up to units: a change of cost unit rescales all distances and preserves every conclusion (boundary, eikonal family, hyperbolicity, Gaussian extremum), a gauge theorem; a global change of state units at $e=0$ is an isometry; the content lies in signs, rankings and ratios. Via Landauer (one nat worth $k_BT$) the cost floor becomes an energy floor: revising toward certainty would demand unbounded energy. Physics anchors the unit and enters no theorem. Removing either postulate leaves the selection open.

Fisher-Geometric Sharpness and the Implicit Bias of SGD toward Flat Minima

A widely held intuition in deep learning is that stochastic gradient descent (SGD) implicitly favors flat minima and that flat minima generalize better, but standard Euclidean measures of flatness such as the trace or maximum eigenvalue of the loss Hessian are not invariant under reparametrizations that preserve the network function, which undermines the theoretical foundations of this narrative. In this study we resolve this issue by grounding flatness in the Riemannian geometry of the statistical manifold induced by the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM). We define Riemannian sharpness mathematically and prove that it is invariant under smooth, function-preserving reparametrizations, which directly addresses the critique of Dinh et al. in the paper ``Sharp minima can generalize for deep nets''.We note that this invariance is a property of the true FIM; the diagonal empirical estimator used in practice (and in all experiments below) inherits invariance only approximately, and exact invariance under arbitrary reparametrizations would require structured estimators such as K-FAC. We formalize the gradient noise of mini-batch SGD as having a covariance structure proportional to the FIM, derive the stationary distribution of the resulting stochastic differential equation, and then show that the probability mass is exponentially concentrated at Riemannian-flat minima. A PAC-Bayes generalization bound controlled explicitly by SR formally links this geometric bias to test performance. Our experiments on MNIST and CIFAR-10 confirm that SR reliably tracks generalization in ways that Euclidean sharpness does not, and that its scaling with $η/B$ matches the theoretical predictions. Together these results provide a rigorous, reparametrization-invariant account of why flat minima generalize.

Generalized Neural Distributional Regression

We introduce the Generalized Neural Distributional Regression (GNDR) framework, which seamlessly embeds deep neural networks into the parameter space of classical probability distributions. To reconcile the inherent non-identifiability of deep architectures with maximum likelihood theory, we propose a two-step semi-parametric estimation procedure. By isolating the terminal prediction heads and treating the upstream network as a fixed, non-linear basis expansion, GNDR enables the extraction of analytical Fisher Information matrices. This facilitates rigorous uncertainty quantification, generating observation-specific confidence bands and tolerance intervals via the multivariate Delta method. We demonstrate the framework's versatility and superior distributional calibration across diverse data modalities, including overdispersed clinical counts, right-censored transcriptomic survival profiles under a mixture cure framework, and zero-truncated age distributions derived directly from unstructured facial images. The methodology is natively implemented in the open-source Python package \textit{thetaflow}.

Fisher-Guided Progressive Parameter Selection for Adaptive Fine-Tuning

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) aims to adapt pretrained models with a small trainable parameter subset, however, most existing methods choose this subset from fixed architectural heuristics rather than using dynamic, task-aware criteria. We introduce \textbf{FisherAdapTune}, a Fisher-guided Adaptive Fine-Tuning framework that progressively selects parameter groups by tracking the temporal drift of their Fisher geometry. Starting from a PAC-Bayesian view of fine-tuning, we decompose the generalization error bound into Fisher-weighted update costs and show that parameter groups whose curvature contribution has stabilized can be frozen to reduce the error bound without interrupting the remaining adaptation dynamics. FisherAdapTune formulates this criterion with a scale-invariant Jensen-Shannon distance between consecutive Fisher distributions, yielding an adaptive active parameter set. We evaluate our approach on a downstream segmentation task, and results show FisherAdapTune improves the in-distribution performance and zero-shot transfer in multiple settings, validating that Fisher structural drift is a useful signal for efficient, task-aware adaptation. We release our \href{https://github.com/AtlasAnalyticsLab/FisherAdapTune}{code} publicly to enable further application of our proposed approach.

Geometric and Spectral Alignment for Deep Neural Network I

Deep residual architectures are modeled as products of near-identity Jacobians. This paper proves deterministic quotient-geometric estimates for singular spectra of Frobenius-normalized layer factors, emphasizing a normalized top-radial Cartan coordinate and fitted power-law chart. Full-rank factors are mapped from $\mathrm{GL}(d)$ to the positive cone by $A\mapsto A^\top A$, then to ordered eigenvalue data. Under Frobenius normalization, exact power-law spectra form a trace-normalized Cartan orbit. This orbit is a Gibbs family on ranks, a Fisher information line, and a Bures--Wasserstein curve with line element $d/4$ times Fisher information. The main rigidity theorem is a slack-aware margin inequality: interface radial amplitude, non-backtracking slack, and signed residual variation control displacement of the fitted Cartan coordinate. In the exact-chart zero-slack case, a depth-$L$ budget gives exponent drift of order $(\log M)/L$; generally, slack and residual increments augment the bound. We separate scalar top-radial from full-Cartan spectral control, which also needs Bures/Hellinger residual variation. We prove approximate-power-law and metric-chart versions, converse lower bounds, Fisher--KL/Bures action estimates, and near-identity expansions for normalized residual chains. Near-identity results verify transport budgets; chart quality remains measurable. Effective rank is a spectral-energy quantile, giving finite-width power-law tail bounds and robust rank-window transition estimates. Empirical static-weight exponent profiles serve as diagnostics; full verification also requires interface budgets, slacks, and residuals for the same operator chain.