SMOTE-VAR: An Uncertainty-Aware Oversampling Method for Predicting Depression Remission in University Students

University students experience disproportionately high rates of common mental health conditions, such as depression, which can impair learning, social functioning, and overall well-being. Although lifestyle interventions such as mindfulness and physical activity can reduce the symptoms, many do not achieve symptomatic remission. Developing new approaches to identify students with poor outcomes could enable earlier and more targeted intervention. Machine learning (ML) methods have increasingly been used to predict remission in depressive patients. However, these ML models often suffer from class imbalance, where there may be an unequal proportion of people in the remitted group relative to the non-remitted group. This imbalance can reduce model accuracy and bias predictions. To address this, studies commonly employ the popular oversampling strategy SMOTE. However, SMOTE has a notable limitation: it may generate invalid synthetic minority samples. In a clinical context, these false positives can lead to incorrect risk stratification, potentially delaying necessary escalated care for patients unlikely to remit. In this paper, we introduce a novel and effective oversampling method that addresses this shortcoming. Our approach leverages the variance function of a Gaussian process to estimate the uncertainty of generated minority samples to reduce false positives. We validate our method on a depression dataset collected from university students and demonstrate that it is better than existing oversampling approaches in predicting remission (i.e., treatment outcome). By improving the reliable identification of non-responders, our method provides a robust computational tool to help clinicians rapidly pivot to adjunctive therapies, thereby personalizing and optimizing mental health care pathways.

LLMs as Acquisition Policies for Finite-Pool Materials Optimization: A Controlled Study

Discovering materials with desirable properties often requires searching large candidate spaces while experimental or computational evaluations remain costly. Active learning addresses this challenge by using previous observations to select which candidate to evaluate next, typically through probabilistic surrogate models. We investigate whether open-weight large language models (LLMs) can serve as standalone acquisition policies in this setting. We evaluate five LLMs across four retrospective finite-pool materials optimization tasks under different candidate-presentation strategies and compare them with random selection and conventional Gaussian-process methods. LLM policies generally reach the global optimum in fewer iterations than random selection, indicating that they provide a useful acquisition signal without task-specific training. Their performance relative to Gaussian-process methods is mixed: conventional acquisition performs better on most tasks, while LLMs match or outperform it in some settings. Performance varies substantially across tasks, models, initializations, and candidate presentations, with no LLM approach performing best across all tasks. Overall, open-weight LLMs show potential as acquisition policies for finite-pool materials search, although their reliability remains sensitive to the task and to how candidates and scientific context are presented.

MorphoGP: A Nonparametric Framework for Predicting Equilibrium Beach Profiles Under Tidal Influence

The prediction of equilibrium beach profiles under tidal influence is of fundamental importance for sustainable coastal development, informing shoreline protection strategies and managing coastal ecosystems under changing environmental conditions. However, it remains challenging due to the highly nonlinear interactions among wave, tide, and sedimentary processes. Traditional empirical and numerical models often exhibit limited adaptability across diverse coastal environments, with especially pronounced limitations in beach systems where tidal processes are important . To improve data-driven prediction under these conditions, this study proposes MorphoGP, a unified category-specific Gaussian process framework for predicting equilibrium beach profiles (EBPs) under tidal influence. The framework first introduces a ContourCluster model based on contrastive learning to classify tide-influenced beach morphologies automatically. Within each morphological category, a specialized Gaussian process expert learns statistical associations between environmental descriptors including waves, tides, and sediments and the beach profile's shape. A Gating Net then integrates the outputs of all experts through a probabilistic weighting mechanism to produce the final prediction. Evaluated on data from over 180 beach profiles from tide-influenced coasts along the Chinese coast, MorphoGP achieves improved predictive performance compared with conventional and deep learning models, reducing the test RMSE by about 59.3\% compared with the best baseline and achieving a final RMSE of 0.297 m. The proposed framework provides a physically informed, data-driven tool for equilibrium beach-profile prediction under tidal influence and coastal management, while stronger process-level physical coupling remains an important direction for future development.

Information fusion and machine learning for sensitivity analysis using physics knowledge and experimental data

When computational models (either physics-based or data-driven) are used for the sensitivity analysis of engineering systems, the sensitivity estimate is affected by the accuracy and uncertainty of the model. This paper considers global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for situations where both a physics-based model and experimental observations are available, and investigates physics-informed machine learning strategies to effectively combine the two sources of information in order to maximize the accuracy of the sensitivity estimate. Two representative machine learning (ML) techniques are considered, namely, deep neural networks (DNN) and Gaussian process (GP) modeling, and two strategies for incorporating physics knowledge within these techniques are investigated, namely: (i) incorporating loss functions in the ML models to enforce physics constraints, and (ii) pre-training and updating the ML model using simulation and experimental data respectively. Four different models are built for each type (DNN and GP), and the uncertainties in these models are included in the Sobol indices computation. The DNN-based models, with many degrees of freedom in terms of model parameters and training options, are found to result in smaller bounds on the sensitivity estimates when compared to the GP-based models. The proposed methods are illustrated for additive manufacturing and lake temperature modeling examples.

Expected Free Energy-based Informative Path Planning for Robotic Mars Exploration

An autonomous robot efficiently exploring an unknown environment, such as looking for water sources on Mars, faces two simultaneous demands: building an accurate information map while quickly finding the regions of greatest value, and paying for every meter of travel and the cost of every measurement it takes. Classical information-seeking and reward-seeking criteria address only one of these objectives at a time. Here, we propose Expected Free Energy (EFE), the principled action-selection objective from active inference, as a unifying criterion for budgeted robotic informative path planning. Maintaining a Gaussian-process belief over the information field, our agent plans continuous trajectories that minimize expected free energy under hard path-length constraints. The results from multiple realizations show that EFE-based planning yields accurate posterior maps and locates the highest-value regions simultaneously, outperforming information-theoretic baselines under the same settings. In robotic exploration, these unified, easy-to-tune principled information-gathering strategies facilitate autonomous deployment while enforcing efficiency and resource constraints.

Can Bayesian Optimization Efficiently Find a Strong Single Expert in Neural Thickets?

Gradient-free post-training has emerged as a compelling alternative to gradient-based optimization for large language models (LLMs), but existing approaches remain costly. We ask whether structured search can identify a strong single expert under a modest evaluation budget. Motivated by evidence that useful weight updates lie in low-dimensional subspaces, we apply Bayesian optimization within a random linear embedding of weight space. Our method requires no backpropagation and uses a Gaussian process surrogate to guide candidate evaluations efficiently. Across several reasoning benchmarks with Qwen2.5-Instruct models from 0.5B to 3B parameters, Bayesian optimization using five times less candidate evaluations matches or exceeds RandOpt. These results show that surrogate-guided search can substantially reduce the evaluation cost of gradient-free post-training while producing stronger deployable single experts.

Neuro-Symbolic Closed-Loop Control of Laser Powder Bed Fusion with an In-Loop Ontology

A geometry-conditioned, neuro-symbolic closed-loop architecture is proposed for laser powder bed fusion, in which a standards-aligned ontology operates inside the control loop and couples symbolic reasoning with statistical learning to set the targets of a constraint-aware predictive controller. The ontology links the process objectives and constraints to the signals a controller can observe, and a description-logic reasoner converts them into the references and bounds enforced on each scan. The demonstrated case is overhang dross, a quality limit on the melt pool depth, which governs quality yet cannot be measured during the build, is mapped through a geometry- and power-dependent depth-to-width ratio onto a bound on the observable width, with the ratio and its calibrated uncertainty supplied by a Gaussian process. The reasoner classifies each upcoming feature and selects the active constraints-adding a lack-of-fusion floor at overhangs, a monotone guard beyond the calibrated range, and an energy-density cap where a process window is declared while running only on changes of geometric context and otherwise leaving a single small quadratic program on the per-scan path. In an Eagar-Tsai surrogate calibrated to the NIST AM-Bench benchmark for IN625, the architecture eliminates the dross produced by a geometry-blind controller, holds dross at zero with only a small residual lack-of-fusion under dual scoring, degrades gracefully under deliberate plant mismatch, and retargets to new alloys and constraints by editing ontology data rather than code. The results establish architectural feasibility, experimental calibration of the ratio is the principal next step.

Exploiting Separability in Multi-Scale Grey-Box Bayesian Optimization

We consider grey-box optimization problems where the decision variables naturally partition into black-box variables (as arguments to an expensive black-box function) and white-box variables, governed by a set of explicit, closed-form equations that also depend on the output of the black-box function. We exploit this separability through a bilevel reformulation: an outer Bayesian optimization (BO) to optimize the scalar objective as a function of black-box variables alone, while an inner problem solves the white-box subproblem via global optimization. The Gaussian process surrogate used in BO is therefore defined rather than and white-box constraints are satisfied exactly whenever the inner optimizer converges to a feasible point---without penalty functions, chance constraints, or moment approximations. On a suite of 13 benchmark problems, bilevel BO achieves lower regret, with fewer iterations and wall clock time. This advantage is robust to initialization set size, exploration parameters, and inner-solver choice.

Seeing the Forest for the Trees: The Gaussian Process Limit of BART

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have shown state-of-the-art performance in both prediction and causal inference problems. Previous theoretical work has attempted to explain BART's superior performance by establishing posterior contraction rates for standard BART models, but these rates depend strongly on the number of covariates. Here, we take a different approach and study the behavior of BART as the number of trees grows towards infinity. We show that in this regime, BART converges to a Gaussian process (GP) with a particular kernel. The kernel and its corresponding reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) have favorable inferential properties that help explain BART's excellent performance. We introduce random tree features as an approximation to this limiting GP, and establish minimax-optimal learning rates for ridge regression on these random features that depend only logarithmically on dimension. In addition to providing insight into the empirical success of BART, random tree features offer a computational benefit over traditional MCMC estimation. The random-features approximation also allows practitioners to easily incorporate BART into any model which has a linear predictor, expanding the applicability and flexibility of BART.

Deep Sigma Point Processes for RCS Modeling in Spaceborne SAR Imagery

Radar cross-section (RCS) modeling is foundational to advancing the utility and sensitivity of spaceborne radar systems. This study introduces a deep sigma-point process (DSPP) model for predicting RCS in synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery using a RADARSAT-2 dataset containing 208,191 verified ships. The DSPP model not only strives for predictive accuracy but also characterizes the uncertainty inherent in the intricate relationships among radar signals, ship parameters, and environmental conditions. Unlike traditional approaches that rely on deterministic equations with static parameters, the DSPP uses a hierarchical Gaussian process framework with Bayesian inference to capture variability and uncertainty in RCS predictions. By generating predictive distributions rather than single estimates, the model accounts for the complex dynamics governing radar returns. Using a Matern kernel with automatic relevance determination, the DSPP identifies and ranks critical features across radar, operational, and environmental domains, thereby supporting transparency and interpretability. Performance evaluations demonstrate the model's superiority over linear regression baselines, with a 20.83 percent reduction in root mean squared error, a 25.89 percent increase in R-squared, and a 44.4 percent reduction in both the residual interquartile range and median absolute deviation on the test data. By providing calibrated uncertainty bounds, the DSPP enhances prediction reliability and supports robust decision-making. This work represents a shift toward probabilistic models that incorporate the inherent uncertainty of complex phenomena. By transitioning from fixed equations to distributions over outcomes, the DSPP fosters a deeper understanding of RCS behavior and enables systems to operate effectively in dynamic environments.

BattVAE-GP: Generative Modeling of Long-Horizon Battery Degradation with Uncertainty Quantification

Long-horizon physics-based simulations of battery degradation provide mechanistic insight but remain computationally expensive, limiting their use for dense exploration of operating conditions over extended cycle life. Here, we propose a hybrid physics-probabilistic learning framework for surrogate modeling of lithium-ion battery degradation trajectories at unseen charging rates. Cycle-resolved degradation data generated with a DFN/P2D electrochemical model in PyBaMM are first transformed into capacity-aligned voltage and derivative features and encoded using a Variational Autoencoder (VAE). The resulting two-dimensional latent space organizes degradation trajectories according to both cycle progression and charging protocol. A sparse multitask Gaussian process (GP) is then trained in this latent space using cycle number and C-rate as input variables, providing continuous interpolation of latent degradation dynamics together with posterior uncertainty estimates. Under protocol-level holdout evaluation, the latent-space GP accurately recovers unseen C-rate trajectories and exhibits uncertainty behavior consistent with the support of the training data. When queried at unseen interior C-rates, the model generates latent trajectories that remain coherently positioned between neighboring simulated protocols. Decoding the GP-predicted latent states through the frozen VAE decoder yields smooth voltage-capacity evolution, while Monte Carlo propagation of the GP latent posterior through an auxiliary latent to State of Health (SOH) predictor provides uncertainty-aware SOH estimates. The proposed BattVAE-GP framework therefore offers a computationally efficient and uncertainty-aware surrogate for long-horizon degradation modeling, providing a structured basis for extending battery health prediction toward richer operating conditions and future simulation-experiment fusion.

Quantitative Gaussian-Process limits of Tensor Programs

We study the infinite-width Gaussian-process limit of random neural networks through the lens of tensor programs, and we provide a quantitative convergence theory in Wasserstein distance. Our main result gives explicit finite-width error bounds, of order inverse square-root of the widths between finite-network executions and their Gaussian-process limits. The framework is architecture-agnostic and covers feed-forward models together with weight-sharing schemes relevant for recurrent and transformer-type architectures.

InfoDPP-PAC: Principled Patch Selection for Whole Slide Image Analysis

Each WSI slide contains thousands of candidate tissue patches, while supervision is usually available only at slide level. Existing bag-construction strategies like Uniform extraction and handcrafted heuristics do not control redundancy while attention-based multiple-instance models couple patch importance to a particular downstream classifier, and coreset methods optimise embedding-space coverage without modelling task-relevant patch quality. We introduce InfoDPP-PAC, a principled patch-selection framework that combines teacher-seeded Gaussian process relevance modelling, determinantal log-determinant diversity,submodular greedy optimisation, and a concentration-based adaptive stopping rule. The main theoretical result shows that the log-determinant diversity term used in DPP-style selection is the Gaussian process mutual information between a selected subset and the latent relevance function. We further derive a PAC-style certificate for residual information gain, allowing the number of retained patches to vary by slide rather than being fixed a priori. The empirical study evaluates whether the selected subset is diverse, spatially and morphologically covering, non-redundant, and enriched for the teacher-derived relevance signal. It does not claim end-to-end diagnostic improvement after retraining a downstream MIL model. On 202 HISTAI gastrointestinal whole-slide images, the adaptive rule uses 83.7% fewer patches on average than a fixed full budget while retaining 97.9% of full-budget composite selection quality. At a matched budget, InfoDPP-PAC achieves the highest mean teacher-derived relevance score among fourteen baselines, with diversity and composite scores close to the strongest coreset methods. The results support InfoDPP-PAC as a controlled quality-diversity-cardinality selection framework, rather than as a downstream clinical predictor.

Gaussian Process Prior Variational Autoencoder for Endoscopic Videos

Endoscopic video analysis is essential for gastrointestinal diagnosis and computer-assisted interventions, but video sequences are routinely degraded by specular reflections, motion artifacts, and missing frames. These transient corruptions can distract clinicians, reduce image interpretability, and disrupt downstream tasks such as 3D reconstruction and navigation. Effective restoration therefore requires methods that exploit temporal continuity rather than treating frames in isolation. We introduce a Gaussian Process Prior Variational Autoencoder (GPVAE) framework for endoscopic video restoration that replaces the standard factorized latent prior with a temporal Gaussian process prior, enabling interpolation of missing frames with uncertainty-aware reconstruction. The framework combines endoscopy-specific encoders, including a convolutional EndoVAE backbone and pretrained Vision Transformer encoders from GastroNet-5M, with two scalable GP approximations: Hierarchical Prior Approximation (HPA) and Sparse Precision Approximation (SPA). Specular reflections are handled using a DUCKNet-based masking pipeline that excludes corrupted pixels from the reconstruction objective. On the C3VDv2 colonoscopy dataset, the best GPVAE variants reduced image reconstruction RMSE by 21.9\% on average, and by up to 26.1\%, relative to matched VAE baselines. Downstream trajectory RMSE was reduced by 12.7\% on average across classical visual odometry and a pretrained PoseNet, at an average increase of 27.3\% in training time per epoch. Finally, the GP posterior provides per-frame uncertainty estimates that reflect temporal support and offer a confidence signal for restored frames.

A Human-in-the-Loop Bayesian Optimization Framework for Constraint-Aware Bioprocess Development

This work presents an extension to Pareto Front Guided Sampling (PFGS), a Human-in-the-Loop (HitL) Bayesian Optimization (BO) framework in which Gaussian process (GP) surrogate-derived quantities are reformulated as objectives of a multi-objective optimization problem, and the resulting Pareto front is exposed to a domain expert for interactive candidate selection rather than returning a single automated recommendation. The framework is extended in two directions: constrained optimization is addressed by incorporating the posterior probability of satisfying output specification limits as an explicit Pareto objective, computed analytically from the GP posterior distribution; robust optimization is addressed by a Monte Carlo sampling strategy that estimates expected lower-confidence performance over a user-defined variability of input perturbations, capturing performance degradation under likely implementation deviations. The resulting multi-dimensional Pareto representation renders trade-offs between predicted performance, model uncertainty, probabilistic constraint satisfaction, and input robustness simultaneously visible through pairwise two-dimensional projections on an interactive dashboard, enabling selection criteria to be iteratively refined as the surrogate model improves and development objectives evolve. The framework is showcased on an eight-dimensional fed-batch Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cell culture simulator demonstrating systematic identification of high-performing, feasibility-compliant, and perturbation-resilient operating conditions, and illustrating how expert-defined requirements provide a principled stopping criterion and support informed allocation of experimental resources.

Graphical conditional generative modeling for digital twin modeling

Digital twin modeling, including control and data assimilation under model uncertainty, often faces an open-ended fidelity problem: adding variables, data streams, and time scales can indefinitely increase model complexity, ultimately producing systems that are difficult to maintain, validate, interpret, and use for stress or safety testing. As an alternative, one can seek parsimonious stochastic surrogate models built only on the variables needed to describe the relevant quantities of interest. We introduce a framework for discovering such variables from observational data by identifying which candidate inputs influence the full conditional law of a target quantity, rather than only its conditional mean. This distinction is essential in stochastic, coarse-grained, or partially observed systems, where dependencies may appear through changes in variability, tail behavior, multimodality, or uncertainty rather than through deterministic functional relationships. The framework couples conditional generative modeling, which learns the conditional distribution of the target given candidate inputs, with Gaussian-process-based analysis of variance (through kernel mode decomposition), which enables iterative pruning of non-influential inputs and interpretable structure discovery. In control settings, the resulting surrogate can be interpreted as a learned Markov decision process: the method identifies not only a transition model, but also the state, action, and memory variables needed to make the learned dynamics effectively Markovian. Across examples involving stochastic dynamical systems, missing variables, PDE control, reinforcement learning, and economic data, the discovered structures yield interpretable stochastic surrogates whose downstream performance is comparable to models trained on the full variable set.

Bayesian Optimization of a Multi-Product Chemical Reactor Using Composite Models and Partial Physics Knowledge

We study data-driven real-time economic optimization of a multi-product chemical reactor when no reliable first-principles model is available beyond a steady-state energy balance. Instead of learning the economic objective directly as a black-box function, we use a composite formulation in which Gaussian process (GP) models predict physically meaningful outputs, including product concentrations and reactor temperature, while profit is computed analytically from these predictions together with raw-material, product, and utility prices. This preserves the structure of the economic objective, makes it parametric in changing prices without needing retraining, and allows candidate operating points to be checked against the available energy balance through a physics residual. The GPs also provide predictive uncertainty, which is exploited in a Bayesian optimization (BO) framework both for data-efficient exploration and for conservative enforcement of the reactor temperature constraint through an upper confidence bound. The acquisition function additionally penalizes large energy-balance mismatch obtained by substituting the GP-predicted outputs and candidate inputs into the available steady-state energy balance. The approach is demonstrated on a benchmark simulation of a non-isothermal multi-product reactor. Relative to a trust-region safe BO implementation, the proposed method achieves better simulated economic performance within the available iteration budget. Relative to a purely data-driven BO approach that does not use the available physics information, it avoids reactor temperature constraint violations.

Improving Bayesian Optimization via Training-Aware Conditional Diffusion Models

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used approach for black-box optimization that uses a Gaussian process (GP) as a surrogate and guides sequential evaluations via an acquisition function, with the ultimate goal of locating the global optimum $\mathbf{x}^{\star}$. To align with this goal, information-based acquisition functions such as Predictive Entropy Search (PES) model $\mathbf{x}^{\star}$ as a random variable and reduce the entropy of its distribution, but approximating this distribution via traditional GP posterior sampling is computationally expensive. To address this limitation, we leverage Conditional Diffusion Models (CDMs) to efficiently approximate the distribution of $\mathbf{x}^{\star}$ and develop BO-inherent training strategies for CDMs. Motivated by the structural properties of the CDM-learned distribution, we further develop an acquisition strategy termed Diffusion-based Mode Seeking (DMS) to guide the sequential evaluation. We establish a sub-optimality guarantee for the CDM-learned distribution and demonstrate through extensive experiments that DMS outperforms standard BO baselines.

GP-Adapter: Gaussian Process CLIP-Adapter for Few-Shot Out-of-Distribution Detection

We propose GP-Adapter, a training-free framework that augments CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training) with Gaussian Process (GP) uncertainty modeling for few-shot classification and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. While CLIP achieves strong zero-shot recognition, it yields deterministic similarity scores and offers limited uncertainty information, which is critical under distribution shift and data scarcity. GP-Adapter constructs modality-specific, class-wise one-class GPs on top of frozen CLIP embeddings using an RBF kernel for image features and a linear kernel for text prompts and fuses their predictive statistics to produce a variance-aware confidence score for OOD detection. The method requires no fine-tuning of the CLIP backbone and relies only on a small $K$-shot cache and lightweight hyperparameter selection, with memory cost scaling as $O(CK^2)$ for $C$ classes and $K$ shots. Experiments on ImageNet and multiple OOD benchmarks show that GP-Adapter provides competitive few-shot performance and consistently improves OOD detection when combined with prompt-learning baselines, highlighting the complementarity between GP-based uncertainty modeling and prompt learning. Overall, our results suggest that integrating probabilistic inference with large pre-trained vision-language models can improve reliability in low-data and distribution-shifted settings. Code is available at https://github.com/tms-byte/GP-Adapter

Function-Space Priors for Bayesian Neural ODEs with Application to Vessel Trajectory Prediction

Vessel trajectory prediction from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is essential for maritime situational awareness, yet it remains challenging due to irregular sampling, missing reports, and complex dynamics. Beyond accurate point forecasts, maritime applications also demand well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for reliable decision-making. Bayesian Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) offer a principled framework for continuous-time trajectory modeling with uncertainty quantification by placing a prior over the neural vector field parameters. However, the commonly used isotropic Gaussian weight prior fails to encode informative structural properties of vessel dynamics, such as smoothness and locality. Existing function-space Bayesian neural network methods address this limitation for static mappings, but do not transfer directly to Neural ODEs, where the primary quantity of interest is the trajectory rather than the vector field itself. In principle, one could place a Gaussian process (GP) prior directly over ODE solutions, but this requires propagating distributions through a nonlinear ODE solver, which is analytically intractable. To address this challenge, we adopt a practical approach that imposes a GP-kernel-based prior directly on the vector field evaluated at a finite set of measurement points. Specifically, we augment the standard weight-space variational objective with a kernel-based regularizer that penalizes deviations of the vector field from the structure implied by a GP prior. To handle long and irregular AIS trajectories, we further combine this function-space regularization with probabilistic multiple shooting, which decouples inference across temporal segments while maintaining global consistency.

REGEN: Reference-Guided Synthetic Multivariate Time Series Generation for Forecasting

Training robust multivariate time series forecasting models requires large, diverse corpora, yet many real-world domains provide only a handful of observed sequences. Existing generators fail to resolve this mismatch: prior-based approaches (e.g., CauKer, TimePFN) produce domain-agnostic samples, while data-driven methods (e.g., TimeGAN) treat references as black-box supervision, forfeiting explicit control over periodic structure, local variability, and cross-variable dynamics. We propose ReGeN, a reference-guided generative pipeline that treats observed sequences not as examples to imitate, but as structural scaffolds for controllable synthesis. ReGeN decomposes each reference into three interpretable components: a phase-aligned periodic backbone capturing dominant domain morphology; per-variable stochastic residuals modeled with a deep-kernel Gaussian process; and lag-aware cross-variable dependencies injected through a structural causal model with fitted coupling coefficients. Sampling these components at controllable temperature broadens distributional coverage while preserving domain-grounded structure. We show that ReGeN-generated data consistently substitutes for real sibling data with minimal forecasting degradation, and in strongly periodic domains such as traffic, can outperform the real source itself. We further show that a foundation model pretrained on ReGeN corpora outperforms those pretrained on prior-based and data-driven synthetic alternatives. This suggests that in low-data regimes, how reference data is structurally exploited can matter as much as how much data is available.

Submodular Benchmark Selection

Evaluating large language models across many benchmarks is expensive, yet many benchmarks are highly correlated. We formalize the selection of a small, informative subset as submodular maximization under a multivariate Gaussian model. Entropy (log-determinant covariance) and mutual information between selected and remaining benchmarks arise as natural objectives. Both are submodular; entropy selection coincides with pivoted Cholesky and has spectral residual bounds, while mutual information is non-monotone in general but empirically monotone for small subsets, so we optimize it greedily. Experiments on three matrices from ten public leaderboards show that mutual information selection outperforms entropy for imputation at small subsets.

Exploiting Differential Flatness for Efficient Learning-based Model Predictive Control of Constrained Multi-Input Control Affine Systems

Learning-based control techniques use data from past trajectories to control systems with uncertain dynamics. However, learning-based controllers are often computationally inefficient, limiting their practicality. To address this limitation, we propose a learning-based controller that exploits differential flatness, a property of many robotic systems. Recent research on using flatness for learning-based control either is limited in that it (i) ignores input constraints, (ii) applies only to single-input systems, or (iii) is tailored to specific platforms. In contrast, our approach uses a system extension and block-diagonal cost formulation to control general multi-input, nonlinear, affine systems. Furthermore, it satisfies input and half-space flat state constraints and guarantees probabilistic Lyapunov decrease using only two sequential convex optimizations. We show that our approach performs similarly to, but is multiple times more efficient than, a Gaussian process model predictive controller in simulation, and achieves competitive tracking in real hardware experiments.

GSC-QEMit: A Telemetry-Driven Hierarchical Forecast-and-Bandit Framework for Adaptive Quantum Error Mitigation

Quantum error mitigation (QEM) is essential for extracting reliable results from near-term quantum devices, yet practical deployments must balance mitigation strength against runtime overhead under time-varying noise. We introduce \emph{GSC-QEMit}, a telemetry-driven, \textbf{context--forecast--bandit} framework for \emph{adaptive} mitigation that switches between lightweight suppression and heavier intervention as drift evolves. GSC-QEMit composes three coupled modules: (G) a Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Map (GHSOM) that clusters streaming telemetry into operating contexts; (S) an uncertainty-aware subsampled Gaussian-process forecaster that predicts short-horizon fidelity degradation; and (C) a cost-aware contextual multi-armed bandit (CMAB) that selects mitigation actions via Thompson sampling with explicit intervention cost. We evaluate GSC-QEMit on benchmark circuit families (GHZ, Quantum Fourier Transform, and Grover search) under nonstationary noise regimes simulated in Qiskit Aer, using an instrumented testbed where action labels correspond to graded mitigation intensity. Across Clifford, non-Clifford, and structured workloads, GSC-QEMit improves average logical fidelity by \textbf{+9.0\%} relative to unmitigated execution while reducing unnecessary heavy interventions by reserving them for inferred noise spikes. The resulting policies exhibit a favorable fidelity--cost trade-off and transfer across the evaluated workloads without circuit-specific tuning.