Verifiable Regularity Criterion for Conditional Expectation Operators and Conditional Mean Embeddings with Applications to Nonparametric Regression, Bayesian Inverse Problems, and Koopman Operators

Conditional expectation operators (CEOs) and their associated conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) play a central role across applied mathematics and machine learning, appearing in nonparametric regression, Bayesian inverse problems, and Koopman operator theory. A fundamental question is when a CEO maps a function space on $\mathcal{Y}$ into a prescribed function space on $\mathcal{X}$, particularly a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We show that such mapping properties are characterized by the regularity of the Radon--Nikodym density of the conditional law, and establish a simple, verifiable sufficient condition under which the CEO is bounded and Hilbert--Schmidt. For RKHSs norm-equivalent to Sobolev spaces, this condition reduces to Sobolev regularity of the conditional density. The result yields a direct route to validate CME representations and error bounds for Galerkin-type and CME-based estimators. We verify the regularity condition in three settings: nonparametric regression, Bayesian inverse problems, and Koopman operator theory for stochastic dynamical systems. We show in each case that classical regularity results on the underlying probabilistic model imply the required mapping properties. The resulting framework offers a unified perspective on conditional expectation operators across probability, operator theory, kernel methods, and stochastic dynamics.

Learning Ergodic Dynamical Systems from a Finite Trajectory

We consider the problem of learning from a single finite trajectory of an ergodic stochastic dynamical system. More precisely, we study discrete-time autonomous stochastic systems defining time-homogeneous Markov processes. We first focus on estimating the optimal one-step prediction function by nonlinear least squares, and derive high-probability guarantees measured with respect to the invariant measure of the process. These results make explicit how the non-independent and non-identically distributed nature of trajectory data modifies the classical statistical learning analysis. We then extend the framework to higher-order systems and finite-state spaces. Finally, we show that the same least squares and concentration arguments naturally extend to learning Koopman operators. Our approach combines tools from statistical learning theory and quantitative ergodic theory for Markov chains. It relies, in particular, on a concentration inequality for Hilbert-space-valued additive functionals of uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chains.

Cluster-Weighted EDMD

Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) approximates Koopman operators from data, but a single global operator is inefficient when different state-space regions exhibit distinct local dynamics. We introduce Cluster-Weighted EDMD (CW-EDMD), which jointly learns a soft phase-space partition and a per-cluster EDMD operator. Its Expectation-Maximization (EM) objective assigns each transition based on both geometric proximity and prediction residuals, so clusters specialize where local Koopman models are accurate rather than where the data are dense. On Lorenz, damped pendulum, and Duffing systems, across 36 configurations and 10 seeds, CW-EDMD improves matched-degree EDMD in one-step and 5s-rollout prediction. Across 288 paired comparisons, there are significant error reductions in 258 cases, increases in 4, and no differences in 26. Median one-step error reductions are 57x, 2.7x, and 12x on pendulum, Duffing, and Lorenz, respectively.

Deep Spectral Learning of Embedded Latent Transfer Operators for Stochastic Dynamical Systems

We propose a spectral learning method for stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems represented with embedded latent transfer operators in deep feature spaces. We instantiate the method as Deep Spectral Encoder (DSE), an operator-based latent state-space model in which a time-invariant neural encoder implements learnable nonlinear feature maps from observations, and these features define Markovian latent states whose temporal evolution and observation mapping are described by the transfer and observation operators, respectively. Functional canonical correlation analysis in a learnable Galerkin-projected feature space provides state coordinates from past and future observations, and the two linear operators are estimated on the state coordinates as ridge-regularized closed-form solutions that coincide with Galerkin projections of the associated covariance operators. On this representation, we generalize sequential Bayesian filtering and Koopman spectral mode decomposition in feature space. Experiments on several scenarios show stable and superior performance with sequential Bayesian filtering and dynamic mode decomposition baselines even under noise and partial observability.