Localizing Global Discrepancies: Marginal Contributions and Contextual Anomaly Detection

Global goodness-of-fit and discrepancy statistics can establish that a sample departs from a reference distribution without identifying which observations drive the departure. We develop a framework for this localization problem by assigning to each observation its conditional or marginal contribution across random statistical contexts. This connects resampling diagnostics and data valuation to projection theory and event-level anomaly detection. For symmetric statistics, fixed-size replacement is exactly equivalent to centered conditional localization. For U-statistics, the addition score equals the first Hoeffding/Hájek contribution; for smooth distributional functionals it is related at leading order to the influence function; and for unbiased known-background MMD it reduces exactly to the MMD witness. This viewpoint also yields more efficient estimators. Matched-context subtraction removes fluctuations unrelated to the observation, while for pairwise MMD the event-containing terms give a simple localizer. On the LHC Olympics anomaly-detection benchmark, the pair estimator converges to the direct empirical MMD witness with the predicted 1/(Rm^2) scaling, where m is batch size and R the number of batches. At m=1000 and R=5x106 it reaches correlation 0.9993 with essentially identical AUC. We also ask when context contains information beyond an event's own features. In a shared-latent toy model, the full single-event signal and background distributions are identical by construction, forcing isolated-event AUC=0.5. Discriminating information survives only in cross-event dependence induced by the shared latent parameter; the ensemble recovers this information, whereas an independent-latent control does not. This separates two roles of context: efficient localization of a global discrepancy and genuinely additional class information when the alternative contains shared structure.

Wasserstein gradient flows of Maximum Mean Discrepancy with energy kernels

We study the Wasserstein gradient flow of the squared Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) generated by the nonsmooth energy kernels $K(z)=-|z|^q$, $0<q<2$. In dimensions $d\ge2$, the corresponding energies are not displacement semiconvex, so standard Wasserstein-gradient-flow theory does not apply. When $d+q-2>0$, we prove global well-posedness on $\mathbb{R}^d$ for probability densities in subcritical $L^p$ spaces, with targets in the same integrability class and with finite moments. We also include the one-dimensional Coulomb endpoint $d=q=1$. For the associated $N$-particle system, we prove global noncollision and fixed-$N$ convergence to the collision-free critical set, a particle-to-continuum criticality principle, and a modulated-energy mean-field estimate that yields convergence of the particle dynamics to the continuum flow as $N\to\infty$ on every finite time interval. We also construct collision-free saddle equilibria, showing that deterministic particle trajectories need not approach global empirical minimizers. For $1\le q<2$, every continuum solution in our class has a narrowly relatively compact orbit, every $ω$-limit point is Lagrangian critical, and the orbit approaches the Lagrangian critical set. For $0<q<1$, the same conclusions hold under uniform-in-time moment and subcritical $L^p$ bounds. We prove that an absolutely continuous Lagrangian critical point equals the target when the source and target have finite moments of order $q$, except when $0<q<1$ and $d\in\{1,3\}$. Under the preceding uniform bounds, rigidity gives convergence of the continuum flow to the target throughout the rigid part of the well-posedness range. Finally, we show that no initial-data-independent multiplicative MMD decay modulus exists on $\mathbb{R}^d$, and that global Polyak--Łojasiewicz inequalities fail in several whole-space and periodic Riesz/Coulomb regimes.

Enhancing Automated Machine Learning via Homogeneous Train-Test Splitting Methods

Accurate model evaluation in machine learning depends critically on how datasets are split into training and testing subsets. Standard random splitting assumes that both partitions share the same underlying distribution, an assumption often violated in datasets with class imbalance, natural clustering, or spatial autocorrelation. This paper investigates the role of statistical similarity in train-test splitting and its consequences for AutoML model evaluation. Five established strategies are compared across fifteen UCI benchmark datasets: random splitting, stratified sampling, Kennard-Stone, Duplex, and SPXY. Similarity is assessed using chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) tests. Geometry-based methods consistently produce near-zero MMD scores, introducing instability into downstream performance estimates. The proposed Optimised-Distribution method treats similarity as an explicit optimisation objective and achieves the highest mean MMD similarity, 89.0%, across all strategies evaluated.

Minimax Lower Bounds of Kernel Discrepancy Estimation: MMD, HSIC, KSD

Over the past 20 years, kernel discrepancies have been leveraged as a highly powerful tool for quantifying the disagreement of distributions, with numerous successful applications in two-sample, goodness-of-fit, and independence testing, among others. Their fastest estimators are known to converge at a parametric rate---$n^{-1/2}$---under mild conditions. While this rate is known to be minimax optimal on $\mathbb R^d$ under strict assumptions with bounded kernels, little is known about its optimality beyond the finite-dimensional Euclidean setting with unbounded kernels. In this work, we prove that the minimax lower bound of estimation of the most popular kernel discrepancies (maximum mean discrepancy, Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion and kernel Stein discrepancy; MMD, HSIC, KSD) is $n^{-1/2}$ on general topological spaces, and under mild assumptions on the kernel; the same rates are shown (as corollaries) to hold for the estimation of the mean embedding and the centered cross-covariance operator. Our results settle the question of optimal estimation of these kernel discrepancies.

Distributional Split Criteria for Random Forests: Extensions, Shrinkage, and the Robustness of Mean Splitting

Distributional random forests replace mean-based CART splitting with criteria that compare the full conditional response distribution in candidate children. We implement and systematically study a family of such criteria inside a single honest-forest implementation: isotropic random-Fourier-feature maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), an anisotropic diagonal-bandwidth variant, an adaptive per-split frequency-selection variant, and a non-kernel sliced-Wasserstein criterion, together with post-hoc kernel-mean shrinkage of the forest weights. Using paired-seed comparisons across synthetic quantile mechanisms, real univariate benchmarks, a California-housing subsample curve, and multivariate synthetic and real responses, we characterize where each extension pays. Three findings recur. First, among distributional criteria ordinary isotropic MMD is already close to best in class: the anisotropic, adaptive-frequency, and sliced-Wasserstein extensions, and post-hoc shrinkage, do not systematically improve on it. Second, on scalar tabular regression mean-based CART splitting remains the robust default and wins many cells. Third, multivariate responses are the regime where distributional splitting clearly earns its keep, most sharply on a pure-dependence copula where the energy score separates the criteria even though marginal CRPS does not. The evidence supports a simple allocation story: distributional splitting helps only when non-location structure is both present and estimable; otherwise it dilutes split-selection power away from the mean. All criteria, the honest forest, and the paired-comparison harness are implemented in the open-source \texttt{drforest} library, whose Rust-backed split search makes broad criterion sweeps inexpensive.

Online Variance Reduction for Domain Adaptation on Streaming Data

This paper studies the problem of stochastic variance reduction (SVR) for the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) and correlation alignment (CORAL) loss functions. Although various offline SVR algorithms for these losses have been proposed, these are incompatible with online, distributed, or incremental learning settings. This paper presents Adaptive vaRiance Reduction via Online reWeighting (ARROW), the first online SVR algorithm for the MMD and CORAL for streamed data. The method maintains moving average references of the alignment statistics, and adaptively reweights incoming minibatches so that the minibatch and reference statistics are aligned. Further, we propose a relaxed reweighting scheme so that the ensuing weight-optimisation problem is tractable. In experiments and simulations, we show that ARROW performs competitively with offline algorithms in terms of runtime, degree of variance reduction achieved, and target domain accuracy.

Representation Distribution Matching for One-Step Visual Generation

We elucidate the design space of Representation Distribution Matching (RDM), our name for the paradigm that trains a one-step image generator by matching generated and reference feature distributions under frozen pretrained encoders. We identify two design axes, how the distributions are compared and the representations they are compared in, and controlled studies along them yield three findings. First, the classical MMD, which could not train convincing generators a decade ago, becomes a strong and scalable objective once estimated right. Second, the generated batch is then the operative variable, with an optimum above 2048, far beyond customary batch sizes. Third, any single representation can be gamed, driven below the real score while images stay visibly fake, so we match against a balanced battery of encoders and evaluate with SW_r14, a Sliced-Wasserstein distance over 14 encoders that is independent of the training loss and resists gaming. Combining the preferred choices yields improved RDM (iRDM): it sets the one-step state of the art on ImageNet at SW_r14 1.30, corroborated by PickScore, a human-preference proxy our objective never optimizes, which prefers it over the prior best one-step generator on 71.2% of matched samples. The same recipe post-trains the four-step FLUX.2 [klein] into a one-step generator, surpassing the four-step version on GenEval, 0.826 to 0.794, and on PickScore, 22.76 to 22.58, in 90 H200 GPU-hours. Project page: https://alan-lanfeng.github.io/rdm/.

On the Wasserstein Gradient Flow Interpretation of Drifting Models

Recently, Deng et al. (2026) proposed Generative Modeling via Drifting (GMD), a novel framework for generative tasks. This note presents an analysis of GMD through the lens of Wasserstein Gradient Flows (WGF), i.e., the path of steepest descent for a functional in the space of probability measures, equipped with the geometry of optimal transport. Unlike previous WGF-based contributions, GMD can be thought of as directly targeting a fixed point of a specific WGF flow. We demonstrate three main results: first, that one algorithm proposed by Deng et al. (2026) corresponds to finding the limiting point of a WGF on the KL divergence, with Parzen smoothing on the densities. Second, that the algorithm actually implemented by Deng et al. (2026) corresponds to a different procedure, which bears some resemblance to the fixed point of a WGF on the Sinkhorn divergence, but lacks certain desirable properties of the latter. Third, the same same idea can be extended to the limiting point of other WGFs, including the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), the sliced Wasserstein distance, and GAN critic functions.