Conditional Total Correlation and the Serial Depth of Adaptive Parallel Sampling

Motivated by parallel decoding in masked diffusion models, we study adaptive parallel sampling of discrete vectors: in each round, a deterministic policy selects unrevealed coordinates on the basis of the values observed so far, and the selected coordinates are sampled independently from their exact conditional marginals. Approximation error is measured by forward Kullback-Leibler divergence, and serial depth is the minimum target-averaged number of rounds meeting a prescribed error budget. Our central result is an exact identity: the divergence of every policy equals the expected conditional total correlation accumulated over its reveal rounds, so conditional total correlation is the exact information cost of within-round parallelism. The identity yields zero-error schedules for finite-order Markov chains with round complexity proportional to the Markov order and logarithmic in sequence length, a matching logarithmic characterization of the Bernoulli walk at every fixed error budget, and a linear-versus-logarithmic separation between left-to-right and hierarchical reveal orders. Uniform random permutations require linearly many expected rounds at every fixed budget; their hard-cap round-error tradeoff is an exact integer-composition problem whose fixed-round asymptotics and joint-scaling frontier we determine. Uniform balanced binary strings have depth of order squared logarithm, and binary one-hot blocks have square-root depth, with rectangular versions realizing every polynomial exponent up to one half. These results separate serial depth from entropy and negative log-likelihood, and establish conditional-dependence structure as a fundamental determinant of parallelizability. Experiments with a masked diffusion language model show that the pseudo-cost distinguishes deployed decoding rules and that its policy rankings agree closely with the quality of self-sampled outputs.

Spectral partitioning for $k$-block averaging kernels of finite Markov chains

We develop spectral algorithms for selecting state-space partitions that define averaging kernels for finite, ergodic and reversible Markov chains. For a partition $\mathcal O$, the Gibbs kernel $G_{\mathcal O}$ resamples within the current block from the stationary conditional distribution; when this update is tractable, composing or mixing it with a baseline kernel $P$ can accelerate convergence. We select $\mathcal O$ by rounding the bottom nonconstant eigenfunctions of $P^2$, or the algebraically smallest eigenfunctions of $P$ for additive mixtures, using weighted $k$-means. For $F(\mathcal O)=\|G_{\mathcal O}P-Π\|_{F,π}^2$, we derive exact trace and normalized-cut representations and show that $F$ equals the Pearson $χ^2$-mutual information between the initial block label and the state after one transition, giving this matrix objective a natural probabilistic interpretation. In the two-block case, a threshold sweep exactly solves the associated one-dimensional weighted two-means rounding problem. For general $k \geq 2$, weighted $k$-means rounds the bottom $(k-1)$-dimensional embedding, after which candidates are rescored by $F$; the rounding distortion is a distance between subspaces that yields spectral approximation bounds. We extend the framework to additive mixtures, finite-horizon objectives, and discounted infinite-horizon objectives. In contrast to classical normalized spectral clustering, which uses top nonconstant modes to find low-flow persistent clusters, our method uses bottom modes to favor large normalized cross-block flow and rapid loss of block-label information. Experiments on a controlled-spectrum graph, a mean-field Ising model, and Bayesian variable selection show notable per-iteration improvements in convergence and statistical estimation.

Spectral Gaps of Hit-and-Run and Coordinate Hit-and-Run

For any convex body $\mathcal{K}\subset\mathbb{R}^{n}$ containing a unit ball, the spectral gap of Hit-and-Run is $Ω(1/(n^2 C_{\mathsf{PI}}))$, where $C_{\mathsf{PI}}$ is the Poincaré constant of the uniform distribution $π$ over $\mathcal{K}$. This implies that Hit-and-Run converges to a distribution within $χ^2$-divergence $\varepsilon$ of the uniform distribution $π$ in $O(n^2 C_{\mathsf{PI}}\log(M/\varepsilon))$ steps from any starting distribution $π_0$ with $M=χ^2(π_{0}\,\|\,π)$, thus refining the known bound of $O(n^2 R^2 \log(M/\varepsilon))$ by Lovász and Vempala (2004) in terms of the outer radius $R$; for nearly isotropic bodies, together with progress on the KLS conjecture, the complexity is $O(n^2\log n\log(M/\varepsilon))$, improving the dimension dependence from cubic to nearly quadratic while maintaining logarithmic dependence on the initial distance. It was an open problem to connect the convergence of Hit-and-Run to Poincaré/KLS constants as was done for the Ball walk by Kannan, Lovász and Simonovits (1997). Unlike Hit-and-Run, the Ball walk has an unavoidable linear dependence on (a stronger notion) of the initial warmness. We directly bound the spectral gap of the Hit-and-Run Markov chain by connecting it to functional isoperimetric constants, inspired by the recent analysis of In-and-Out. Rewriting the spectral gap in terms of dual certificates leads to the Babuška--Aziz constant studied in the analysis of PDEs; it is asymptotically bounded by the improved Poincaré constant, which we show can be bounded in terms of the usual Poincaré constant. The proof is based on duality and calculus, unlike known proofs of convergence for Hit-and-Run which are based on bounding the conductance. The same technique can be applied to Coordinate Hit-and-Run, resulting in a much improved mixing time of $O(n^3C_{\mathsf{PI}}\log(M/\varepsilon))$.

Conditionally Resampled Sliding-Window Count Kernels: Spectral-Gap Bounds and Poincaré Inequalities

We study the conditionally resampled sliding-window count kernel associated with the empirical counts of length-$n$ windows from a stationary finite-state reversible Markov chain. Although the resulting count process is generally not Markov, its stationary one-step conditional law defines a genuine Markov kernel. For every fixed strictly positive reversible kernel \(P\) on a finite state space, we present a Poincaré inequality for the induced count kernel $\tP_n$ of length $n$. In other words, we derive the lower bound of the spectral gap $\Gap(\tP_n)$ of $\tP_n$ as \[ \Gap(\tP_n)\ge \frac{c(P)}{n}, \] where \(c(P)>0\) depends only on \(P\). The proof combines a martingale oscillation inequality for the stationary path law with a direct comparison of coordinate oscillations to the Dirichlet form of the count kernel. A linear statistic of the count vector gives the matching \(O(1/n)\) upper bound, so for every fixed strictly positive reversible \(P\) one has \(\Gap(\tP_n)=Θ_P(1/n)\). The resulting count-space Poincaré inequality yields a local-to-global variance bound for finite-window count statistics and, together with a general matrix-concentration principle, operator-norm concentration for matrix-valued empirical averages.

Stochastic Dynamics on Persistence Diagram Space via Reinforcement Learning

Persistence diagrams (PDs) provide stable and interpretable summaries of multiscale topological structure. While substantial progress has been made in the statistical analysis of PDs, existing literature often treats diagrams as static objects and provide limited frameworks for probabilistic modeling and stochastic evolution on PD space. We introduce a reinforcement learning framework for stochastic dynamics on PD space, where diagrams evolve through topology aware local edit operations. The dynamics define controlled Markov processes on spaces of finite PDs with variable cardinality. We establish conditions under which the induced Markov chains are irreducible, aperiodic, and geometrically ergodic, implying the existence of unique stationary probability laws on PD space. To guide the dynamics toward scientifically relevant topological targets, we formulate objectives that encompass distribution matching, task specific topological statistics, and structure-preserving compression. The resulting rewards balance task specific distributional targets, diagram fidelity, and complexity reduction, and yield a framework for adaptive topological simplification and probabilistic modeling. Experiments on synthetic and neuroimaging PDs demonstrate that the proposed framework can preserve dominant topological structure while reducing diagram complexity.

Tensor Probabilistic Model Checking of Finite-Horizon Markov Chains (Extended Version)

We reexamine the problem of verifying Markov chains with respect to step-bounded reachability probabilities. Prevailing approaches rely on encoding the state-transition matrix using either explicit or symbolic representations. While these approaches are effective for sparse transition dynamics, they scale less favorably in the dense regime. Our insight is to cast probabilistic model checking of Markov chains as computations over dense tensors. This methodology enables the use of off-the-shelf compiler toolchains for optimized execution of these tensor computations on hardware accelerators. We prove the soundness of the methodology of mapping probabilistic model checking to tensor computations. We implement our approach in a tool called Tessa . Empirical evaluation shows that Tessa unlocks massive speedups over state-of-theart methods on selected benchmarks from the literature.

Learning Ergodic Dynamical Systems from a Finite Trajectory

We consider the problem of learning from a single finite trajectory of an ergodic stochastic dynamical system. More precisely, we study discrete-time autonomous stochastic systems defining time-homogeneous Markov processes. We first focus on estimating the optimal one-step prediction function by nonlinear least squares, and derive high-probability guarantees measured with respect to the invariant measure of the process. These results make explicit how the non-independent and non-identically distributed nature of trajectory data modifies the classical statistical learning analysis. We then extend the framework to higher-order systems and finite-state spaces. Finally, we show that the same least squares and concentration arguments naturally extend to learning Koopman operators. Our approach combines tools from statistical learning theory and quantitative ergodic theory for Markov chains. It relies, in particular, on a concentration inequality for Hilbert-space-valued additive functionals of uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chains.

Induction Heads Interpolate N-Grams

Induction heads are attention circuits believed to underlie in-context learning in transformers, yet a precise characterization of the estimators they implement remains elusive. We study transformers trained on order-$k$ Markov chains and identify two complementary smoothing mechanisms. First, at finite attention-weight scale, the circuit implements a soft context-matching estimator: it aggregates contributions from exact and partial context matches, weighted exponentially by their overlap, and induces a data-dependent interpolation across context orders analogous to Jelinek-Mercer smoothing. Second, a beginning-of-sequence (BOS) token induces additive pseudo-counts, recovering Dirichlet-style smoothing. We construct a disentangled transformer implementing both mechanisms and show that trained transformers recover the predicted attention patterns. Across settings where pseudo-count smoothing is optimal or lower-order contexts provide structured evidence, trained transformers match or outperform classical count-based baselines. Our results bridge mechanistic interpretability of induction heads with classical statistical smoothing, revealing that transformers learn to regularize in-context estimation rather than simply count.

Unbiased Derivative Estimation for Stationary Mean of Parameterized Markov chains

We propose a new approach to unbiased estimation of the gradients of the stationary means associated with parametrized families of Markov chains. Our estimators are particularly efficient when the Markov chains have slow mixing rate. Our approach does not require a specific parametrization except for an oracle to evaluate the transition density and its gradient at a given data point without any additional knowledge about the density function itself. It makes our estimator suitable for parametrizations associated with neural networks. The estimator can potentially achieve large improvement in terms of efficiency. Numerical experiments confirm the good performance predicted by the theory.

A Doeblin-Anchored Contrastive Chart for Learning Markov Transition Kernels

Learning a Markov transition model is not merely conditional density estimation: the learned object must be a valid transition kernel before it is iterated in downstream dynamics. This paper introduces a Doeblin-anchored contrastive chart, a statistical-to-dynamical coordinate framework for learning transition kernels from contrastive objectives. Given a restart law and an anchor strength, the chart mixes the target transition with the restart law. The resulting anchored kernel is simultaneously a Doeblin-minorized Markov kernel, the positive conditional law in a binary contrastive experiment, and an explicitly invertible coordinate for the original transition law. We prove that the anchored contrastive risk identifies the anchored transition density and calibrates excess risk to density error. Since inversion of a learned score may produce a signed or unnormalized object, we introduce a measurable Markovization operator that restores kernel validity while preserving integrated $L^1$ accuracy up to a constant factor. Oracle inequalities and Hölder--ReLU approximation bounds yield nonparametric rates for independent transition pairs. For stationary geometrically $β$-mixing trajectories, a conservative thinning-and-coupling extension yields the same reconstruction interface with an effective sample size. Occupancy-weighted perturbation bounds transfer one-step kernel error to finite-horizon marginal, path-law, and occupation-measure errors under explicit coverage.