I document an ideologically asymmetric break in the pre-existing diversification trend of political discourse, emerging around late 2022, using 6 million Reddit comments from two cross-partisan forums, 2019-2025. Conservative users experienced an interruption of their prior diversification trajectory; progressive users showed no comparable change. The asymmetry is consistent across estimation strategies (ITS, DiD, RDiT, propensity-score matching) and temporal aggregations. A daily-frequency permutation test over 2,377 candidate cutoff dates shows the ChatGPT threshold produces an unremarkable estimate (49.8th percentile): the shift builds gradually instead of breaking at a single date. A continuous cumulative LLM index, tracking AI exposure across seven model releases, remains significant under a quadratic trend specification that eliminates the binary estimate. A stayer analysis narrows the mechanism: the homogenization effect disappears when the sample is restricted to authors active throughout the study period, and the stayer confidence interval excludes within-author effects even a tenth the size of the full-sample estimate. The mechanism is most parsimoniously ecological (community-level discursive convergence) rather than individual-level AI adoption, though the data cannot cleanly separate this account from concurrent secular change.
Layla Bouzoubaa, Hyung Wook Choi, Milan Varghese +2cs.CL
Objectives: To develop a codebook for self-stigma across cognitive, affective, and behavioral domains, and to estimate the prevalence, co-occurrence, and temporal patterns of these indicators in Reddit posts by people who use drugs. Methods: We developed a ten-indicator codebook through consensus-based abductive coding spanning cognitive (self-labeling, pessimism/self-defeatism, deservingness/worthlessness), affective (shame, guilt/self-blame, despair/hopelessness), and behavioral (concealment, anticipated rejection, desire to quit, ambivalence) domains; two coders reached substantial agreement (Cohen's k = 0.72). We then scaled classification with a large language model validated against expert coding (k = 0.73, F1 = 0.80), analyzing 72,115 thread-initiating posts from 1,660 English-language users (2006-2025). Results: 3,838 posts (5.3%) from 1,228 users (74.0%) contained self-stigma; all ten indicators discriminated self-stigma posts (RR 3.6 to 86.2), led by self-labeling (56.0%) and despair/hopelessness (48.5%). Self-stigma was integrated: core and behavioral indicators were strongly associated at the user level (OR = 4.65, 95% CI 3.12-6.94, p < 0.001), and 87.0% of posts with behavioral indicators also contained a core indicator. Contrary to progressive models, behavioral indicators emerged earlier than core ones (desire to quit at median position 0.08 vs. shame at 0.38). Nine of ten indicators were stable across posting trajectories; only pessimism increased (OR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.25-2.10). Conclusion: Among people who use drugs online, self-stigma is an integrated phenomenon in which behavioral indicators rarely appear without internalized ones and often precede them. Most expressions remain stable over time, but pessimism about change deepens, marking a target for early digital intervention and showing that progressive stage models do not map directly onto textual disclosure.