Dakar's residential rental market remains poorly documented despite its economic and social importance: 54.4% of households are renters, compared to 23.3% nationally. This study develops a complete machine learning pipeline to predict residential rents in Dakar, from data collection to model interpretation. An original dataset of 1,507 rental listings was built through systematic web scraping and a documented cleaning pipeline, then enriched with four purpose-built features, including a luxury score and a keyword-based quality score. Five models were compared: linear regression, Random Forest (baseline), XGBoost, and LightGBM optimized through Bayesian optimization with Optuna, using leakage-free KFold target encoding for location. The optimized XGBoost model achieved the best performance with an $R^2$ of 0.847, an MAE of 210,902 XOF, and an RMSE of 324,195 XOF. Feature importance was assessed using native XGBoost gain and SHAP values, revealing a substantial difference in the ranking of location, which appears as a minor predictor by gain but as the second most influential variable by SHAP. This result carries methodological implications for hedonic studies using target-encoded categorical variables. This study provides an interpretable benchmark for Dakar's rental market and highlights several avenues for improvement, including the integration of geospatial features and conformal prediction.
The United States has allocated approximately $65 billion through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act for broadband expansion, yet evidence-based methods for targeting these investments remain underdeveloped. This paper presents an explainable machine learning framework for profiling broadband adoption disparities at census-tract granularity across 83,359 tracts nationwide. Using 65 socioeconomic, demographic, and infrastructure features derived from the American Community Survey 2022, we train a LightGBM model under spatial five-fold cross-validation, achieving R^2 = 0.533 and Spearman rho = 0.763; state-held-out cross-validation (51 folds) confirms generalization (R^2 = 0.525). TreeSHAP analysis identifies income and education as the dominant factor group (with the engineered interaction term absorbing attribution from its constituent features), and SHAP-based clustering reveals three exploratory factor profiles: Well-Connected Moderate (~49K tracts), Affordability-Limited Severe (~21K tracts), and Rural-Elderly (~13K tracts). As a screening tool, ML-based tract selection captures 38.0% of the total adoption gap within the top 10% of tracts versus 35.2% for income-only heuristics (+2.8 pp, p < 0.002, county-block bootstrap); in regret-reduction terms, the model closes 19% of the remaining gap between income-only and oracle selection. The primary contribution is the per-tract factor decomposition: SHAP identifies which feature groups (income/education, rurality, age) are most strongly associated with each tract's predicted gap, and informs differentiated investigation. A temporal stability check, training on ACS 2017 and predicting ACS 2022 with zero survey-year overlap, confirms ranking stability (rho = 0.784, noting hyperparameters tuned on 2022 data).
Vehicular traffic is a major source of air pollution; however, the contribution of remotely acquired traffic information to local machine-learning (ML) air-pollution models remains insufficiently characterised. This study evaluates four interpretable tree-based ML models (Random Forest, Extra Trees, LightGBM, and XGBoost) under six predictor scenarios combining progressively larger predictor sets, ranging from remotely acquired traffic, meteorological, and temporal variables alone to the inclusion of measurements from one and four neighbouring monitoring stations, to estimate NO$_2$, PM$_{10}$, PM$_{2.5}$, and O$_3$ concentrations across several sites in London. ML model performance was compared with a ridge linear regression model as a baseline, with spatial interpolation methods and with a cross-site validation experiment. When modelling without data from neighbouring stations, the RMSE for NO$_2$ ranged from 9.73 to 11.66 $μ$g/m$^3$ without traffic information, compared with 8.72 to 11.52 $μ$g/m$^3$ when traffic information was included. Additionally, for NO$_2$, SHAP analyses indicate that traffic-related variables can contribute at levels comparable to pollutant measurements from neighbouring monitoring stations in traffic-dominated~environments.
Xuan Zheng, Kento Uchida, Shinichi Shirakawacs.LG cs.AI
Recent research has leveraged Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance Automated Feature Engineering (AutoFE) through semantic descriptions and trajectory-based prompting. However, there exist two challenges that limit their applicability and scalability in long-horizon optimization: (1) semantic metadata is unavailable in many practical settings, and (2) trajectory accumulation increases the risk of exceeding the context window, while without it, the generation process can become unstable, leading to becoming stuck in the local optima and a high duplicate rate of generated features. To this end, we propose a SHAP-enhanced Implicit-trajectory Generation for Metadata-free AutoFE (SIGMA), a scalable constant-context optimization framework. SIGMA leverages SHAP values to provide task-aware signals for guiding group feature generation instead of semantic information. In addition, we adopt an EXposed-feature Implicit Trajectory (EXIT) approach, where the exposed features in the prompt implicitly represent the trajectory. Empirical results demonstrate that SIGMA achieves performance comparable to the state-of-the-art (SOTA) LLM baselines with a nearly constant prompt length. Notably, EXIT significantly reduces the duplicate ratio of generated features from 37.2% to 6.8%. At the same time, SIGMA matches traditional SOTA performance with only 5.4 features on average, demonstrating substantial efficiency gains in feature utilization.
Logan Luna, Matthew P. Berkowitz, Laxima Niure Kandel +1cs.CR cs.LG
Intrusion detection systems (IDS) and automated systems for detecting and reporting cyber threats, are commonly handled via supervised machine learning methods. Though effective, these models struggle to effectively adapt to new attack types. This study proposes a novel approach by employing a reward-based, dueling Q-learning model for IDS, achieving an average accuracy of 99.68% across multiple attack classes. The proposed model has a dueling network architecture which separates its predictions into value and advantage streams. This has the benefit of improving learning efficiency and stability. The model was trained on the CIC-IDS2018, a benchmark dataset based on real-world intrusion detection scenarios, having multiple attack classes such as DDoS, botnets, and brute-force attacks. Furthermore, Explainable AI (XAI), specifically SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), was also integrated into the training and evaluation process to provide interpretability into the model's predictions.
Intraday market manipulation is hard to detect because its footprint is brief, buried in millions of quotes, and statistically similar to ordinary volatility. Detectors reach high recall only by flagging so many other days that measured precision collapses, producing alerts no regulator can act on. We show that this manipulation leaves a distinctive dynamic signature: a pump-and-crash pattern visible in the velocity of market state, rather than its level. We build a minute-level detection pipeline, strictly partitioned in time, based on smoothed state velocity: option-Delta velocity for index options and price velocity for equities. We explain every alert with SHAP attribution. We hold the test period strictly out-of-sample and fix all thresholds before evaluation. On the locked Indian BANKNIFTY index-options test, the plain autoencoder recovers 10 of 10 regulator-identified manipulation days. Conditioning detection on market regimes inferred by a hidden Markov model yields an instructive negative result. The regimes are descriptively distinct, but using them trades recall for precision. Under the closed-world assumption that unlabeled days are normal, precision remains near 25%. The same dynamic appears in thinly traded U.S. equities (SEC v. Patel). The shape of the signature survives the transfer; its velocity magnitude does not. A pump-reversal shape score ranks the complaint's alleged manipulation days with AUC 0.91 (ARQQ) and 0.81 (ACY). On the ARQQ worked example, the score peaks inside the complaint's documented minute window. Finally, exact SHAP attribution over every alert shows that unconfirmed alerts share the regulator-identified days' attribution profile (cosine similarity 0.99). The precision ceiling is consistent with incomplete enforcement labels rather than detector failure. What transfers across markets and instrument types is the dynamic signature itself.
Prediction of post-wildfire debris flows is critical for mitigating hazards to communities, infrastructure, and resources during intense rainfall in recently burned areas. However, identifying reliable machine learning models is complicated by overlapping debris-flow and non-debris-flow events in feature space, the need for model interpretability, and limited training data. This paper addresses these challenges through a systematic evaluation of machine learning models in terms of predictive performance, feature importance, and synthetic data augmentation. Using basin-scale observations of post-wildfire debris-flow events across the western United States, we compare 15 models, including the Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN). Repeated stratified cross-validation shows that TabPFN achieves the highest unaugmented performance with a threat score of 0.637, closely followed by the best tree-based models. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to identify the features driving predictions, revealing that short-duration rainfall intensity and storm accumulation consistently rank highest, while burn severity and terrain features contribute less. We further evaluate synthetic data augmentation using TabPFN-generated samples to address the scarcity of debris-flow observations. Synthetic augmentation improves the performance of all models except CNN, with the largest mean threat score increase of +0.041 among the deep learning models. By combining rigorous model benchmarking, interpretable feature analysis, and synthetic data augmentation, this work provides a comprehensive framework for improving post-wildfire debris-flow prediction.
Most FDR-controlled feature selection methods are designed for coordinate-wise hypotheses, where each feature has a single weight or importance score. This abstraction fails in sequential and grouped models, where one original feature is represented by a block of sub-features, such as lags, recurrent states, or attention-based interactions. We propose a grouped-feature FDR control framework for such settings. For grouped linear models, we construct null-symmetric block-level mirror statistics with matrix-valued perturbations. For neural sequential models, we combine Permutation SHAP derivatives as model-agnostic block-level importance scores with kernel-based dependence measure. The framework is model-agnostic across network architectures, does not require specifying the covariate distribution, and reduces to Gaussian Mirror or Neural Gaussian Mirror when the block size is one. We prove FDR control for low- and high-dimensional grouped linear models and asymptotic symmetry of smoothed Permutation SHAP derivatives under fixed fitted nonlinear models. Experiments on simulated and real-world datasets show reliable FDR control and improved power under correlated grouped-feature signals.
Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) networks are hard to protect: devices are heterogeneous, computing resources are scarce, and traffic must be analyzed in real time. We present an intrusion detection system that addresses these constraints through feature selection. A Pearson correlation filter first removes redundant attributes; a hybrid strategy then combines model-based feature importance with SHAP attribution to pick a compact subset, on which we train Random Forest and LightGBM classifiers. SHAP and LIME explain what each retained feature contributes to the decisions. On CIC-IoMT 2024 and CIC-IDS 2017, the method cuts the feature space by up to 88% - from 40 to as few as 5 features - and accuracy and F1-score stay within a few points of models trained on all features. Compact, interpretable detectors of this kind are practical candidates for deployment on resource-limited medical networks.
This study contributes toward development of an Automated Data Processing (ADP) framework designed to evaluate and reinforce optimal machine learning model-feature combinations for predictive tasks in fused deposition modeling (FDM) process datasets. The methodology is centered around a reinforcement learning-inspired policy updating mechanism, where multiple machine learning models are trained on both full feature sets and feature subsets selected through Shapley-based Explainable AI (SHAP XAI) across 217 datasets. At each episode, the framework assesses the predictive accuracy and F1-scores of each model-feature pair, computes a scalar reward, and updates $Q$ values to guide future model selection. SHAP XAI feature importance was employed to generate reduced yet informative feature subsets to enable the framework to explore performance with dimensionality. The policy was shown to evolve over multiple episodes, with reward distributions used to visualize performance stability. Overall, results indicate that leveraging the ADP framework through XAI algorithms successfully converges toward optimal model-feature configurations with improved accuracy and stability. Specifically, the proposed framework improves the test-set AUC from 0.9248 to 0.9731 and increases the mean reward value by more than fifty percent compared with the baseline full-feature configuration.
Alexander Gabriel A. Aranes, John Michael C. Magpantay, Reginald Neil C. Recario +2cs.CY cs.AI
Filipino graduates face a persistent disconnect between educational preparation and labor market outcomes, where starting salary is a key signal of entry-level valuation. Current Philippine research is dominated by descriptive tracer studies that document employment rates but do not explain the determinants of pay. We address this gap using a crowd-sourced survey dataset of graduate responses whose noisy, self-reported nature makes it a challenging prediction target. Applying machine learning to this problem, we identify job role and industry as the dominant determinants of starting salary, significantly outweighing institutional prestige. The strength of this finding is its central contribution: it is corroborated by three independent lines of evidence, namely SHAP attributions, the heavy reliance of the best ensemble on occupational text, and a Natural Language Inference reformulation. These results suggest that career guidance and policy should prioritize sector-specific skills over institutional brand.
Arthur G. Bubolz, Abreu Quevedo, Giancarlo Lucca +3cs.LG cs.CE
The growing use of Bitcoin as a decentralized digital asset and investment tool has sparked strong interest in understanding its market behavior. This study presents a new approach to analyze Bitcoin market sentiment by combining on-chain and financial data with social media posts. Unlike models that aim to predict prices, this work focuses on explaining market sentiment using blockchain transactions, historical price data of Bitcoin, and daily Twitter sentiment classifications. The method merges sentiment trends with on-chain and financial metrics, normalized into a dataset for detailed market analysis. Multiple machine learning models were tested using cross-validation, with Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) emerging as the most reliable model for classifying sentiment, achieving an average F1-score of about 0.84. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a game theory-based method for model interpretability, was used to quantify the contribution of on-chain features to the model's predictions, improving transparency. The results indicate that this data combination yields meaningful predictive signals and insights, supporting data-driven cryptocurrency analysis and future improvements with deep learning.
We study the problem of decision-making from long-form, temporally structured text using large language model (LLM) agents. Standard retrievalaugmented generation (RAG) pipelines fragment chronological context into isolated snippets, discarding the temporal structure that is often critical for correct downstream decisions. We introduce TLM (Trajectory Language Model), a closed-loop agentic framework that iteratively refines the evidence set using SHAP-guided feedback. The key technical contribution is the latent growth curve model (LGCM) over retrieved chunk embeddings, which provides an interpretable mechanism for detecting trajectory trends, turning points, and information gaps. We show that, under a scorer-calibration assumption (which holds approximately in practice), the iterative refinement procedure is monotonically non-decreasing in the probability assigned to the correct label. Empirically, TLM is evaluated on three temporally grounded decision tasks: medical question answering, earnings call surprise prediction, and overnight stock gap prediction. TLM substantially outperforms both zero-shot LLM baselines and standard retrieval-augmented approaches on the medical task, and yields consistent, economically meaningful gains on the two financial tasks.
The adoption of non-parametric machine learning models for regulatory capital estimation introduces a fundamental governance challenge: the inability to explain model outputs in a manner auditable by supervisory bodies. This 'black box' problem remains a major barrier to the adoption of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and related ML architectures in ICAAP and CCAR workflows despite their predictive advantages over traditional parametric approaches. This paper addresses this barrier through SHARC (SHAP for Regulatory Capital), an explainability framework for the Hybrid GPR-HS architecture and its stress-testing extension. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), derived from cooperative game theory and satisfying the properties of Local Accuracy, Missingness, Consistency, and Efficiency, are applied to Stressed Value-at-Risk (SVaR) outputs under three macro scenarios: West Asia War, Climate Risk, and AI Bubble/Regulatory Burden. SHARC decomposes SVaR into baseline, mean-driven, and volatility-driven components, enabling transparent linkage between scenario design and capital outcomes. Two findings emerge. First, SHARC consistently links non-linear SVaR outputs to underlying scenario inputs, confirming framework fidelity and providing auditable traceability of capital drivers. Second, under stress conditions, the mean return component (directional loss magnitude) dominates the variance component (volatility baseline) in determining capital levels, with implications for capital limit-setting, position management, and hedging strategy. The results establish SHARC as a regulator-aligned explainability layer that makes the Hybrid GPR-HS framework fully auditable and consistent with FRTB, ICAAP Pillar 2, and CCAR transparency requirements.
Subscriber attrition is a costly, persistent challenge for telecommunications providers, with monthly churn of roughly 1.9% in mature markets eroding billions in revenue annually. Predictive models can flag at-risk customers accurately, yet they are routinely excluded from frontline CRM workflows because high-performing ensemble and non-linear architectures are opaque: a retention specialist cannot design a personalised intervention from a probability score alone, without knowing why a subscriber is at risk. This paper addresses that gap. We benchmark four classifiers--Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM--on the IBM Telco Customer Churn benchmark (7,043 records; 19 features; 26.5% churn, balanced to 50% via SMOTE on the training partition only). Logistic Regression attains the strongest AUC-ROC (0.8411) and LightGBM the highest accuracy (78.42%); all four fall within a 0.011 AUC band (0.831--0.841), and 5-fold cross-validation confirms the leading models are effectively tied. Explanations are delivered at two granularities: a global SHAP ranking identifying tenure, total charges, and month-to-month contract as the dominant churn signals, and instance-level SHAP and LIME decompositions that expose the drivers behind each prediction. Building on these outputs, we introduce a four-layer CRM integration architecture that converts risk scores and attribution vectors into tiered segmentation, maps top features to structured retention-action templates, and routes campaign outcomes into a retraining feedback loop. Targeting the highest-risk quintile is projected to cut overall churn by 3.3--5.3 percentage points, preserving an estimated $199K--$319K per campaign cycle.
Stephen Tete, Carl Shneider, Maxime Cordy +3cs.LG physics.space-ph
Earth system infrastructures relying on satellite-based technologies, such as Global Positioning System (GPS) communications, are affected by ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) gradients. Modeling these gradients under physical constraints remains challenging due to their dynamic and transient nature. While existing machine learning (ML) models can predict hourly TEC variations, it remains unclear whether their temporal resolution is sufficient to preserve small-scale TEC irregularities within predicted signals. To address this gap, we introduce an interpretable ML-based model, t-STEP, designed to predict TEC at a 30-second resolution and estimate irregularity signatures from the modeled signals. This high cadence enables the derivation of Rate of TEC changes (ROT) and the ROT Index (ROTI) as diagnostic indicators of ionospheric variability. The model is developed using GPS observations from solar cycle 24 at a station located at 5.49°S, 47.49°W. A multi-metric evaluation framework, including dynamic time warping, is used for robustness assessment, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) provides insight into feature contributions. The 30-second TEC predictions achieve 91% accuracy with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.38 TECU during high solar activity (2015). Compared with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2020), the hourly model improves accuracy by 35%, reduces absolute errors by 57%, and increases prediction skill by 54%. More importantly, the 30-second model captures TEC irregularity dynamics and morphologies during geomagnetic storms of different intensities, outperforming an attention-based Long Short-Term Memory model under the same experimental conditions. This study demonstrates the potential of a single TEC prediction framework for scalable irregularity monitoring without requiring separate models for individual transient events.
As machine learning models grow more influential and opaque, algorithmic fairness and explainability are critical for ensuring accountability. However, we demonstrate that these auditing mechanisms are themselves vulnerable to subtle manipulation, camouflaging the influence of protected features. While prior work on data-agnostic attacks has exposed this vulnerability, they leave behind detectable artifacts that compromise their stealth. We introduce Targeted Identity Re-Association (TIRA) attacks, a novel family of attacks that iteratively and probabilistically manipulate a model's outputs without requiring access to the model's internals or feature representations. We formalize two algorithms: Probabilistic Micro-Shuffling (PMiS), which applies localized adjacent swaps, and Probabilistic Rank-Shift Micro-Perturbation (PRSMP), which introduces small, randomized rank shifts. We empirically demonstrate that TIRA attacks are highly effective at pushing fairness metrics towards ideal values. Crucially, TIRA attacks successfully confound SHAP-based explanations, leaving effectively zero residual attribution for protected features, a major improvement over prior work.
Mental illnesses among drug users are an increasing international issue, particularly in regions where early detection cannot be easily undertaken. The current literature tends to ignore the use of AI-based mental health analysis in drug users, and low quality of the class imbalance treatment, low interpretability, and optimal hyperparameter optimization can lower predictive quality and clinical utility. This study present a detailed, explainable machine learning (ML) model of multiclass mental health prediction, using a multidimensional data set of drug-affected persons. We combine hybrid PCA-Information Gain (PCA-IG) feature selection, Generative Adversarial Network (GAN)-based oversampling, and Dragonfly Algorithm (DA)-optimized XGBoost to address some of the limitations of existing methods. The suggested framework is effective to work with high-dimensional categorical data, address the issue of class imbalance, and improve predictive performance due to intelligent hyperparameter tuning. The experimental findings show that the XGBoost model optimized using the DA, in combination with GAN-based oversampling, has an accuracy of 94.17% and a weighted F1-score of 93.80%, which is better than the traditional and baseline models. The behavioral, lifestyle, and health factors, particularly sleep quality, physical health, and emotional regulation, are strongly predictive of mental health, with demographic factors having little impact, as seen through feature analysis. SHAP-based explainable AI provides easy-to-understand, instance-level information, enhancing interpretability and trust in models to be used in clinical settings. The results indicate that this framework has the potential to generate valid mental health forecasting tools, which would facilitate early intervention and enhance the treatment of drug-influenced people.
Yash Chaudhary, Jason T. L. Wang, Chunhui Xu +2astro-ph.SR cs.LG
Solar flares, particularly those of the M- and X-class, have a significant impact on human life because of their potential to disrupt critical infrastructure and communication systems on Earth. Accurate prediction of solar flares is crucial for mitigating these risks, but the black-box nature of conventional deep learning models used in flare prediction limits their trustworthiness and interpretability. In this paper, we propose a new approach to solar flare prediction using photospheric magnetic field parameters or features with deep learning. To improve model interpretability, we integrate explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques, including SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and partial dependence plots (PDPs), into our prediction framework. XAI methods provide transparency by analyzing the importance and interactions of features used by our model. Specifically, SHAP values offer a global and local understanding of the features, while PDPs provide insights into feature-level trends. These techniques demonstrate the potential of XAI in deploying AI-driven solutions in high-impact applications such as solar flare prediction, paving the way for more informed decision-making in solar physics and space weather studies.
Representative clutter height (RCH) is a key parameter in radio propagation and interference analysis because it captures the dominant height of local obstructions that drive terminal clutter loss. Current practice often relies on fixed clutter heights assigned to land use classes in Recommendation ITU-R P.452-18, but this misses within class variation and can lead to conservative exclusion zones and poor site ranking for low Earth orbit ground station siting and spectrum coordination. We present an interpretable, globally deployable machine learning framework for predicting RCH from open geospatial data. The model is trained using LiDAR derived labels from the U.S. Geological Survey 3D Elevation Program and inference time features from global land-cover, terrain, demographic, thermal, and optical remote sensing products. We define RCH using a robust 75th percentile clutter height statistic, evaluate multiple regressors, and select LightGBM for its accuracy, efficiency, and compatibility with feature attribution analysis. The final model achieves a mean absolute error of 1.79m and an R^2=0.765, reducing absolute error by more than 60% relative to the ITU baseline. Beyond aggregate fit, we evaluate domain facing criteria relevant to RF planning, including meter scale error, tolerance band accuracy, over and under estimation tails, agreement with ITU clutter height regimes, and SHAP-based physical plausibility. SHAP identifies tree canopy cover, land-cover semantics, and spectral reflectance as the most influential predictors. Studies on segmentation derived features, non-forest ablations, and land-cover matched international validation show that open geospatial data can improve clutter modeling at scale without sacrificing interpretability or deployability.
Antoine Pesenti, Aidan O'Sullivancs.AI cs.LG econ.GN
Electricity markets are inherently complex systems characterised by strong nonlinearities, high-dimensional interactions, and increasing interdependence across regions. While deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities for electricity prices, their lack of interpretability limits their usefulness for understanding the underlying drivers of price formation. This paper addresses this gap by combining DNN models with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to analyse the determinants of electricity prices across 39 European bidding zones. We employ SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to quantify feature contributions and apply and extend SSHAP, an aggregation framework to improve interpretability in high-dimensional settings. The analysis identifies that renewable energy sources, particularly solar, play a disproportionately important role in price formation despite their lower share in total power generation. Gas prices remain a dominant and consistent driver across electricity markets, while interconnections significantly shape price dynamics, highlighting the strong interdependence of European electricity systems. In addition, a synthetic EU-wide electricity market is constructed to explore the counterfactual scenario of a fully integrated market with a single price.
Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) is compute-intensive and error-prone: model performance depends sensitively on data quality and hyperparameter choices, and naïve runs can even degrade model performance. This raises a practical question:can we predict fine-tuning performance before committing to a full training run? We present TUNEAHEAD, a lightweight framework for pre-hoc prediction of fine-tuning performance. TUNEAHEAD encodes each candidate run as a meta-feature vector that combines static dataset descriptors with dynamic probe features from a short standardized probe. A predictor maps these features to performance estimates, while SHAP-based attributions provide interpretable diagnostics that reveal which specific features drive the prediction. Across 1,300+ fine-tuning runs on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, TUNEAHEAD consistently outperforms strong baselines such as Early-Stop Extrapolation and ProxyLM. On a held-out test set of 370 runs, TUNEAHEAD achieves an RMSE of 1.47 percentage points and places 95.1% of predictions within +3/-3 percentage points of the true score. These accurate continuous predictions support practical go/no-go screening policies that can reduce unnecessary full fine-tuning while retaining most promising runs.
Xinyu Qin, Vicky Ye, Ruiheng Yu +1cs.CY cs.AI cs.LG
Delirium is common in hospitalized patients and is often missed in routine care. We present a user-centered interactive machine learning (UC-iML) framework for delirium detection support that combines physician-guided feature refinement with interpretable modeling. Using 3,862 labeled admissions from six Toronto hospitals in the General Medicine Inpatient Initiative (GEMINI), we integrate administrative variables, laboratory results, medications, and a radiology-derived text indicator. Physicians guide feature refinement and model evaluation, and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to summarize feature attribution. We evaluate standard supervised classifiers with temporally separated holdout testing and a later-phase validation cohort. Compared with automated and baseline variants, the proposed framework shows better overall discrimination and stronger temporal robustness, while the explanations highlight clinically meaningful signals. These results support UC-iML as a practical human-in-the-loop framework for clinically relevant delirium modeling.
Louis Agyekum, Edmund Fosu Agyemang, Obu-Amoah Ampomah +6cs.LG stat.AP
This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate. Using daily data from the Bank of Canada spanning January 2017 to May 2026, resampled into 113 monthly observations, five ML models are evaluated: linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost. These models are benchmarked against the naive random walk model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters seasonality (ETS). All models are evaluated using an expanding-window framework to maintain strict out-of-sample integrity, and forecast-accuracy differences are assessed using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Structural break detection identifies four significant breakpoints in the series, corresponding to the escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018, the COVID-19 economic recovery in 2020, the peak of the Bank of Canada rate-hiking cycle in 2022, and the start of the Bank of Canada rate-cutting cycle in 2024. SHAP, or Shapley Additive Explanations, analysis is applied to interpret the drivers of the best-performing ML model. The results show that the naive random walk model remains a formidable benchmark. Linear regression is the only model that statistically outperforms the naive random walk model, with a DM statistic of 3.0585 and a p value of 0.0071, whereas the ML ensemble models show only marginal differences. Random Forest with an expanding-window framework achieves the lowest MAPE of 1.17 percent among all models except the random walk. SHAP analysis confirms that short-term lags, particularly lag1 and lag2, and recent rolling means dominate predictions, consistent with the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates.
Samuel Emmons, Kelly Truax, Maurice Lonsway +2physics.data-an cs.LG nucl-ex
High-purity germanium gamma spectra often require time-consuming analyses from subject matter experts. Photopeaks within these spectra are carefully fitted and numerical methods are employed to assist with nuclide identification (NID) and quantification. Amending the list of nuclides identified by analysis software can be nontrivial. When many samples need to be analyzed, it is therefore challenging to make timely and correct decisions. Supervised machine-learning-based NID can serve as an expert-informed, automated tool to improve the initial set of radionuclides suggested to an analyst and more effectively drive subsequent quantification. To that end, we implemented machine learning models that map photopeaks carefully fitted by analysts to NID results for experimental spectra containing various isotopic combinations drawn from a set of 65 isotopes. The best model achieved an F1 score of 0.97, markedly surpassing the F1 score of 0.84 achieved by traditional software when compared using a nuclide library comprising the same 65 isotopes assessed by the models. Finally, we illustrated the most important input features for model predictions using Shapley Additive Explanations. These explanations revealed that the models use physically relevant photopeaks when making predictions for the isotopes in our nuclide library.
We present an interpretable machine learning pipeline to decompose Cross-Sectional Equity Return Predictability into auditable factor contribution. We apply an XGBoost model with TreeSHAP attribution and conduct stress testing on 3632 Chinese A-share stocks from 2009 until 2019. Using 60-month, rolling windows over 55 months of out-of-sample data, XGBoost obtains a mean AUC of 0.547 and +2.38%/month (Newey-West t = 5.94; Annualized Sharpe 2.23) long-short spread for the top vs bottom quintiles. This alpha is persistent after adjusting for the Carhart four-factor model (+2.31%/month; t = 7.48). SHAP Decomposition indicates that behavioral signals (turnover and momentum) account for 58.2% of predictive attribution compared to 10.7% for valuation ratios, on average, across 55 industry groups. Ablation analysis serves to cross-validate this ranking and provides evidence that SHAP and ablation diverge in a manner that highlights feature substitutability structure that is largely invisible to either method used in isolation.
Kiarash Rezaei, Omran Ayoub, Sebastian Troia +3cs.NI cs.AI cs.LG
As artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) models become integral to network operations, their lack of transparency poses a significant barrier to operator trust. Existing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques often fail to bridge this gap for non-specialists, producing technical outputs that are difficult to translate into actionable insights. This paper presents a framework specifically designed to address this shortcoming. It leverages a moderately sized large language model (LLM) and extends beyond the standard use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature influence values. The framework employs a structured prompt enriched with mutual feature interaction data to generate human-understandable natural language explanations. To validate our framework, we performed an empirical evaluation on an optical quality of transmission (QoT) estimation use case with human evaluators. We collected independent performance evaluations from specialists, which showed a high inter-evaluator agreement. Compared to a state-of-the-art baseline that uses only SHAP feature influence values in a straightforward prompt, our approach improves the explanation usefulness and scope by 12.2% and 6.2%, while achieving 97.5% correctness.
Classification of sleep stages is one of the most important diagnostic approaches for a variety of sleep-related disorders. Electroencephalography (EEG) is regarded as a powerful tool for examining the association between neurological effects and sleep phases since it correctly identifies sleep-related neurological alterations. During Non-Rapid Eye Movement (NREM) and Rapid Eye Movement (REM) sleep phases, a number of nerve and bodily functions are affected and therefore hold an important role both in their functionalities. This work aims to classify NREM and REM sleep stages from sleep EEG data and present a noble SleepExplain model, an explainable NREM and REM sleep stage classification to explain its predictions. In this work, sleep stages were classified using Random Forest, XGBoost, and Gradient Boosting ensemble classification models. Overall, we obtained an accuracy of 92.54% (Random Forest), 94.25% (Gradient Boosting), and 94.30% (XGBoost). For explainable classification model, we utilized a game theoretic approach, SHAP (SHapley Addictive exPlanations) to offer a convincing explanation for the prediction.
Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that affects motor, cognitive, and behavioral functions, where accurate characterization of disease progression remains essential to improve patient outcome and quality of life. Unsupervised machine learning (ML) approaches have demonstrated the ability to uncover disease progression trajectories and meaningful latent stages from longitudinal data; however, their limited interpretability restricts clinical trust and translation. We extend a previously proposed ML-based disease staging framework by applying an explainability analysis to the extracted feature representations and discovered disease stages. Applied to the Enroll-HD dataset, we first project the learned representations into a lower-dimensional space to intuitively assess whether the resulting clusters align with the progression of established clinical measures. We then use saliency maps to identify the clinical features that most strongly contribute to the learned embeddings over time. Finally, we train a surrogate classifier and apply SHAP to quantify feature importance for cluster assignments and to analyze which clinical variables drive transitions between disease stages. The explainability analysis indicates that the learned embeddings capture clinically meaningful disease structure, aligning with established motor and functional severity scores and exhibiting progressive deterioration across clusters. Within this analysis, SHAP reveals a stratification of disease stages, ranging from early cognitive-motor impairment to severe functional dependency, consistent with known clinical progression patterns, while also highlighting intra-stage variability.
Sahar Askari, Mohammad Mahdi Mirza Ali Mohammadi, Fatemeh Ensafdoust +2cs.LG eess.SP
An interpretable and scalable framework for decoding driving behaviors from multimodal physiological signals is proposed in this study. We utilize multimodal physiological driving behavior large-scale dataset comprising synchronized electroencephalogram (EEG), electromyography (EMG), and galvanic skin response (GSR) signals. Our approach involves rigorous preprocessing followed by a domain-specific feature extraction pipeline targeting time-domain, frequency-domain, and derived physiological indices. To address high dimensionality, we employ SHAP-based elite feature selection, retaining the top 250 features to reduce computational overhead while preserving predictive power. Hyperparameter optimization for extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) models is conducted using Bayesian optimization via Optuna. Finally, a weighted soft-voting ensemble is constructed to leverage the complementary strengths of both gradient boosting frameworks. The results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble achieves a test accuracy of 80.91% and a macro-F1 score of 0.79, significantly outperforming single-modality baselines and traditional machine learning models. Ablation studies confirm an 8% performance gain over the best single modality (EEG), validating the necessity of multimodal fusion. SHAP analysis further validates the physiological plausibility of the model, revealing that the EEG contributes the majority of predictive weight, GSR and EMG features provide critical discriminatory signals for high-arousal and motor-intensive maneuvers.